Replicated multiple scale species distribution models (SDMs) have become increasingly important to identify the correct variables determining species distribution and their influences on ecological responses. This study explores multi‐scale habitat relationships of the snow leopard ( Panthera uncia ) in two study areas on the Qinghai–Tibetan Plateau of western China. Our primary objectives were to evaluate the degree to which snow leopard habitat relationships, expressed by predictors, scales of response, and magnitude of effects, were consistent across study areas or locally landcape‐specific. We coupled univariate scale optimization and the maximum entropy algorithm to produce multivariate SDMs, inferring the relative suitability for the species by ensembling top performing models. We optimized the SDMs based on average omission rate across the top models and ensembles’ overlap with a simulated reference model. Comparison of SDMs in the two study areas highlighted landscape‐specific responses to limiting factors. These were dependent on the effects of the hydrological network, anthropogenic features, topographic complexity, and the heterogeneity of the landcover patch mosaic. Overall, even accounting for specific local differences, we found general landscape attributes associated with snow leopard ecological requirements, consisting of a positive association with uplands and ridges, aggregated low‐contrast landscapes, and large extents of grassy and herbaceous vegetation. As a means to evaluate the performance of two bias correction methods, we explored their effects on three datasets showing a range of bias intensities. The performance of corrections depends on the bias intensity; however, density kernels offered a reliable correction strategy under all circumstances. This study reveals the multi‐scale response of snow leopards to environmental attributes and confirms the role of meta‐replicated study designs for the identification of spatially varying limiting factors. Furthermore, this study makes important contributions to the ongoing discussion about the best approaches for sampling bias correction.
Climate warming and human disturbance are known to be key drivers in causing range contraction of many species, but quantitative assessment on their distinctive and interactive effects on local disappearance is still rare. In this study, we examined the association of climate warming and human disturbance stressors with local disappearance probability of Brandt's voles (Lasiopodomys brandtii) in a steppe grassland in northern China. We used logistic generalized additive models to quantify the relationship between local disappearance probability of Brandt's voles and environmental variables. The year following the last observation year was used to estimate the disappearance threshold of Brandt's voles. We projected the distribution change of Brandt's voles under future climate warming scenarios. We found climate warming attributed to local disappearance and range contraction for southern populations of Brandt's voles from 1971 to 2020. Human stressors and high vegetation coverage increased the probability of local disappearance of voles in years of abundant precipitation. The southern boundary retreated northward at a speed of 99.0 km per decade with the temperature rise of 0.36°C. The disappearance threshold of maximum air temperature of Brandt's voles in the warmest month (27.50 ± 1.61°C) was similar to the lower critical temperature of its thermal neutral zone. Our study suggests that the rapid climate change over the past decades contributed to the range contraction of its southern boundary of this keystone species in the steppe grassland of China. It is necessary to take actions to preserve the isolated populations of Brandt's voles from the effects of accelerated climate change and human disturbance.
Habitat evaluation constitutes an important and fundamental step in the management of wildlife populations and conservation policy planning. Geographic information system (GIS) and species presence data provide the means by which such evaluation can be done. Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) is widely used in habitat suitability modeling due to its power of accuracy and additional descriptive properties. To survey snow leopard populations in Qomolangma (Mt. Everest) National Nature Reserve (QNNR), Xizang (Tibet), China, we pooled 127 pugmarks, 415 scrape marks, and 127 non-invasive identifications of the animal along line transects and recorded 87 occurrences through camera traps from 2014–2017. We adopted the MaxEnt model to generate a map highlighting the extent of suitable snow leopard habitat in QNNR. Results showed that the accuracy of the MaxEnt model was excellent (mean AUC=0.921). Precipitation in the driest quarter, ruggedness, elevation, maximum temperature of the warmest month, and annual mean temperature were the main environmental factors influencing habitat suitability for snow leopards, with contribution rates of 20.0%, 14.4%, 13.3%, 8.7%, and 8.2% respectively. The suitable habitat area extended for 7 001.93 km2, representing 22.72% of the whole reserve. The regions bordering Nepal were the main suitable snow leopard habitats and consisted of three separate habitat patches. Our findings revealed that precipitation, temperature conditions, ruggedness, and elevations of around 4 000 m a.s.l. influenced snow leopard preferences at the landscape level in QNNR. We advocate further research and cooperation with Nepal to evaluate habitat connectivity and to explore possible proxies of population isolation among these patches. Furthermore, evaluation of subdivisions within the protection zones of QNNR is necessary to improve conservation strategies and enhance protection.
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