Metapopulation Persistence of an Endangered Butterfly in a Fragmented Landscape

Hanski, Ilkka; Pakkala, Timo; Kuussaari, Mikko; Lei, Guangchun

doi:10.2307/3546033

Cited by 381 publications

(319 citation statements)

References 34 publications

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“…Localized extinctions are a common feature of all small populations and have been observed and modelled for animals (Stacey & Taper 1992;Lande 1993;Hanski et al 1995;Holyoak & Lawler 1996;Ludwig 1996;Sutcliffe et al 1997;Bascompte & Rodriguez-Trelles 1998;Marion et al 2000), plants (Ouborg 1993;Tilman 1994;Swinton & Gilligan 1996) and diseases (Bartlett 1957(Bartlett , 1960Black 1966;Grenfell 1992;Keeling 1997;van Herwaarden 1997;Caraco et al 1998;Earn et al 1998). In 1957, Bartlett made the seminal observation that the number of localized extinctions, or fade-outs, of measles was related to the population size of the community.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Understanding the persistence of measles: reconciling theory, simulation and observation

Keeling

Grenfell

2002

Proc. R. Soc. Lond. B

135

166

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Ever since the pattern of localized extinction associated with measles was discovered by Bartlett in 1957, many models have been developed in an attempt to reproduce this phenomenon. Recently, the use of constant infectious and incubation periods, rather than the more convenient exponential forms, has been presented as a simple means of obtaining realistic persistence levels. However, this result appears at odds with rigorous mathematical theory; here we reconcile these differences. Using a deterministic approach, we parameterize a variety of models to fit the observed biennial attractor, thus determining the level of seasonality by the choice of model. We can then compare fairly the persistence of the stochastic versions of these models, using the 'best-fit' parameters. Finally, we consider the differences between the observed fade-out pattern and the more theoretically appealing 'first passage time'.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Understanding the persistence of measles: reconciling theory, simulation and observation

Keeling

Grenfell

2002

Proc. R. Soc. Lond. B

135

166

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“…One important assumption usually made in metapopulation models is that local populations within a metapopulation fluctuate asynchronously (e.g. Foley 1997;Hanski et al 1995). If the dynamics of populations are asynchronous, it is unlikely that all populations will suffer extinctions at once.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Constancy and asynchrony of Osmoderma eremita populations in tree hollows

Ranius

2001

Oecologia

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A species rich beetle fauna is associated with old, hollow trees. Many of these species are regarded as endangered, but there is little understanding of the population structure and extinction risks of these species. In this study I show that one of the most endangered beetles, Osmoderma eremita, has a population structure which conforms to that of a metapopulation, with each tree possibly sustaining a local population. This was revealed by performing a mark-release-recapture experiment in 26 trees over a 5-year period. The spatial variability between trees was much greater than temporal variability between years. The population size was on average 11 adults tree-1 year-1, but differed widely between trees (0-85 adults tree -1 year -1 ). The population size in each tree varied moderately between years [mean coefficient of variation (C.V.)=0.51], but more widely than from sampling errors alone (P=0.008, Monte Carlo simulation). The population size variability in all trees combined, however, was not larger than expected from sampling errors alone in a constant population (C.V.=0.15, P=0.335, Monte Carlo simulation). Thus, the fluctuations of local populations cancel each other out when they are added together. This pattern can arise only when the fluctuations occur asynchronously between trees. The asynchrony of the fluctuations justifies the assumption usually made in metapopulation modelling, that local populations within a metapopulation fluctuate independently of one another. The asynchrony might greatly increase persistence time at the metapopulation level (per stand), compared to the local population level (per tree). The total population size of O. eremita in the study area was estimated to be 3,900 individuals. Other localities sustaining O. eremita are smaller in area, and most of these must be enlarged to allow long-term metapopulation persistence and to satisfy genetic considerations of the O. eremita populations.

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“…A number of recent studies have recorded pronounced year-to-year changes in patterns of abundance (Berven 1995, Nuernberger 1996, Sutcliffe et al 1996, Bjornstad et al 1999 or in patterns of habitat occupancy (Schoener and Spiller 1987, Sjö gren 1991, Thomas and Harrison 1992, Hanski et al 1995, Hecnar and M'Closkey 1996, Skelly and Meir 1997. Because these changes have important implications for population regulation (Levins 1970, Pulliam 1988, Hanski and Gilpin 1991 and interspecific interactions (Huffaker 1958, Kareiva 1987, Bengtsson 1989, understanding them is a priority for ecologists.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Behavioral and Demographic Responses of Tungara Frogs to Variation in Pond Density

Marsh¹

2001

Ecology

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Abstract. Population responses to variable environments can result from individual behavior (i.e., dispersal and habitat selection) or demography (i.e., changes in birth and death rates). Distinguishing behavioral from demographic responses to environmental variability has important implications for interpretation of spatial patterns and projections of population persistence. I studied the behavioral and demographic responses of tú ngara frogs, Physalaemus pustulosus, to experimental variation in the density of breeding ponds over two years. At natural spatiotemporal scales of variation in pond density, behavioral responses predominated over demographic responses. In the first year of the experiment, when plots varied in pond density, tú ngara frogs were proportionally more abundant in plots that contained higher densities of ponds. This behavioral response appeared to be due to increased ability to find plots with high pond densities and reduced effects of pond saturation (i.e., availability of unused ponds) within these plots. In the second year of the experiment, when plots had equal pond densities, there was a detectable demographic response to breeding-pond density early in the season, with fewer frogs in plots that had contained no ponds in the previous year. This response was short-lived, however, and by the end of the second year there was no detectable demographic effect. These results demonstrate that behavioral responses may predominate over demographic responses even on relatively large scales. Thus, studies demonstrating changes in patterns of abundance and distribution must be cautious in interpreting these results in the context of metapopulation dynamics without a detailed understanding of species-specific dispersal behavior.

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Metapopulation Persistence of an Endangered Butterfly in a Fragmented Landscape

Cited by 381 publications

References 34 publications

Understanding the persistence of measles: reconciling theory, simulation and observation

Understanding the persistence of measles: reconciling theory, simulation and observation

Constancy and asynchrony of Osmoderma eremita populations in tree hollows

Behavioral and Demographic Responses of Tungara Frogs to Variation in Pond Density

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