Meteorological monitoring of an active volcano: Implications for eruption prediction

Barclay, Jenni; Johnstone, Jade E.; Matthews, Adrian J.

doi:10.1016/j.jvolgeores.2005.07.020

Cited by 41 publications

(44 citation statements)

References 14 publications

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“…Intense bouts of precipitation have already been implicated as a triggering mechanism for collapses at lava dome eruptions even in the absence of hydrothermal alteration (Matthews et al 2002;Elsworth et al 2004;Simmons et al 2004;Barclay et al 2006;Matthews et al 2009). Southwestern Guatemala hosts an extremely wet climate, with rainfall at the summit of Santa María (3,772 m) totaling more than 1,700 mm per year (Walker et al 2006); precipitation rates at the dome complex have been estimated to be as much as 3,000-4,000 mm per year (Lopez 2004).…”

Section: (Harrismentioning

confidence: 99%

An assessment of hydrothermal alteration in the Santiaguito lava dome complex, Guatemala: implications for dome collapse hazards

et al. 2013

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A combination of field mapping, geochemistry, and remote sensing methods has been employed to determine the extent of hydrothermal alteration and assess the potential for failure at the Santiaguito lava dome complex, Guatemala. The 90-year-old complex of four lava domes has only experienced relatively small and infrequent dome collapses in the past, which were associated with lava extrusion. However, existing evidence of an active hydrothermal system coupled with intense seasonal precipitation also presents ideal conditions for instability related to weakened clay-rich edifice rocks. Mapping of the Santiaguito dome complex identified structural features related to dome growth dynamics, potential areas of weakness related to erosion, and locations of fumarole fields. X-ray diffraction and backscattered electron images taken with scanning electron microscopy of dacite and ash samples collected from around fumaroles revealed only minor clay films, and little evidence of alteration. Mineral mapping using ASTER and Hyperion satellite images, however, suggest low-temperature (<150°C) silicic alteration on erosional surfaces of the domes, but not the type of pervasive acid-sulfate alteration implicated in collapses of other altered edifices. To evaluate the possibility of internal alteration, we re-examined existing aqueous geochemical data from dome-fed hot springs. The data indicate significant water-rock interaction, but the Na-Mg-K geoindicator suggests only a short water residence time, and δ 18 O/δD ratios show only minor shifts from the meteoric water line with little precipitation of secondary (alteration) minerals. Based on available data, hydrothermal alteration on the dome complex appears to be restricted to surficial deposits of hydrous silica, but the study has highlighted, importantly, that the 1902 eruption crater headwall of Santa María does show more advanced argillic alteration. We also cannot rule out the possibility of advanced alteration within the dome complex interior that is not accessible to the methods used here. It may therefore be prudent to employ geophysical methods to make further assessments in the future.

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Section: (Harrismentioning

confidence: 99%

An assessment of hydrothermal alteration in the Santiaguito lava dome complex, Guatemala: implications for dome collapse hazards

et al. 2013

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“…Rainfall-producing weather systems affecting the island fall into two broad categories: large-scale synoptic (> 100 km across) systems and local mesoscale (< 100 km across) systems (Froude, 2015). Both can produce high-intensity precipitation, but large-scale events can potentially be forecast days in advance whereas this timescale reduces to hours for local weather systems (Barclay et al, 2006).…”

Section: Soufrière Hills Volcano Montserratmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Prevailing winds often distribute ash from weak plumes to the west, but larger plumes can also deposit to the north, east and south (Bonadonna et al, 2002). This intermittent eruptive activity has triggered a complex sedimentological response in drainages surrounding the volcano since 1995 (Barclay et al, 2006(Barclay et al, , 2007Alexander et al, 2010;Froude, 2015).…”

Section: Soufrière Hills Volcano Montserratmentioning

confidence: 99%

Real-time prediction of rain-triggered lahars: incorporating seasonality and catchment recovery

Jones

Manville

Peakall

et al. 2017

Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci.

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Abstract. Rain-triggered lahars are a significant secondary hydrological and geomorphic hazard at volcanoes where unconsolidated pyroclastic material produced by explosive eruptions is exposed to intense rainfall, often occurring for years to decades after the initial eruptive activity. Previous studies have shown that secondary lahar initiation is a function of rainfall parameters, source material characteristics and time since eruptive activity. In this study, probabilistic rain-triggered lahar forecasting models are developed using the lahar occurrence and rainfall record of the Belham River valley at the Soufrière Hills volcano (SHV), Montserrat, collected between April 2010 and April 2012. In addition to the use of peak rainfall intensity (PRI) as a base forecasting parameter, considerations for the effects of rainfall seasonality and catchment evolution upon the initiation of raintriggered lahars and the predictability of lahar generation are also incorporated into these models. Lahar probability increases with peak 1 h rainfall intensity throughout the 2-year dataset and is higher under given rainfall conditions in year 1 than year 2. The probability of lahars is also enhanced during the wet season, when large-scale synoptic weather systems (including tropical cyclones) are more common and antecedent rainfall and thus levels of deposit saturation are typically increased. The incorporation of antecedent conditions and catchment evolution into logistic-regression-based raintriggered lahar probability estimation models is shown to enhance model performance and displays the potential for successful real-time prediction of lahars, even in areas featuring strongly seasonal climates and temporal catchment recovery.

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“…Such percolation of lake water leads to increased likelihood of a phreato-magmatic eruption; recently, the effect of water percolation as a trigger mechanism for volcanic eruptions has been discussed intensively (e.g., Mastin and Witter, 2000;Matthews et al, 2002;Barclay et al, 2006). Thus, investigations of lake colmation and regular monitoring of lake temperature, gas emissions, and increasing hydrothermal activity must be carried out, together with volcano-monitoring studies of the Cuicocha caldera.…”

Section: The Hazard Of Lake Cuicochamentioning

confidence: 99%

Hazards of volcanic lakes: analysis of Lakes Quilotoa and Cuicocha, Ecuador

Gunkel

Beulker

Grupe³

et al. 2008

Adv. Geosci.

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Abstract. Volcanic lakes within calderas should be viewed as high-risk systems, and an intensive lake monitoring must be carried out to evaluate the hazard of potential limnic or phreatic-magmatic eruptions. In Ecuador, two caldera lakes -Lakes Quilotoa and Cuicocha, located in the high Andean region >3000 a.s.l. -have been the focus of these investigations. Both volcanoes are geologically young or historically active, and have formed large and deep calderas with lakes of 2 to 3 km in diameter, and 248 and 148 m in depth, respectively. In both lakes, visible gas emissions of CO 2 occur, and an accumulation of CO 2 in the deep water body must be taken into account.Investigations were carried out to evaluate the hazards of these volcanic lakes, and in Lake Cuicocha intensive monitoring was carried out for the evaluation of possible renewed volcanic activities. At Lake Quilotoa, a limnic eruption and diffuse CO 2 degassing at the lake surface are to be expected, while at Lake Cuicocha, an increased risk of a phreaticmagmatic eruption exists.

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Meteorological monitoring of an active volcano: Implications for eruption prediction

Cited by 41 publications

References 14 publications

An assessment of hydrothermal alteration in the Santiaguito lava dome complex, Guatemala: implications for dome collapse hazards

An assessment of hydrothermal alteration in the Santiaguito lava dome complex, Guatemala: implications for dome collapse hazards

Real-time prediction of rain-triggered lahars: incorporating seasonality and catchment recovery

Hazards of volcanic lakes: analysis of Lakes Quilotoa and Cuicocha, Ecuador

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