Method for Assessing the Consequences of Natural and Man- Made Emergencies (on the Example of the Siberian Federal District of Russia)

Abstract

The paper presents a method to assess and forecast consequences of natural and man-made emergencies, based on regions of the Siberian Federal District of Russia. A single common measure for all emergencies can be found only in socio-economic consequences of emergencies — both natural and man-made accidents. This measure is the number of victims, as well as the amount of losses. The calculations are based on the factors that adjust the number of victims and losses from natural and man-made disasters to the population level and prices of 2000. The paper presents some statistics of emergency situations in the Siberian Federal District for 2000–2010. Based on the calculation results, forecast maps for damage caused by natural and man-made emergencies, as well as for total damage for 1960, 1990, 2010–2020, were created.