Methodological Basis for the Use of Markov Processes for Risk Assessment in Systems «man–machine–environment»

Bochkovskyі, A.

doi:10.32447/20784643.18.2018.09

Cited by 3 publications

(9 citation statements)

References 1 publication

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Unclassified

Order By: Relevance

“…В умовах функціонування систем «людинамашина -середовище» це є дуже складним завданням, оскільки характеристики негативного впливу потенційно небезпечних та шкідливих виробничих, а також зовнішніх факторів на стан безпеки працівника є завжди стохастичними у часі [1][2][3][4]. В даному випадку необхідно враховувати як випадкову інтенсивність у часі негативного впливу на працівника небезпечних та шкідливих виробничих, а також зовнішніх факторів, так і випадкову інтенсивність відновлення у часі його професійного здоров'я, від зазначеного негативного впливу.…”

unclassified

“…Для математичного опису зазначених процесів доцільно використовувати спеціальний підклас марковських процесів -так звані марковські процеси зі знесенням. Зазначений тип марковських процесів є гнучким математичним апаратом для моделювання різноманітних реальних процесів в різних галузях науки [1].…”

unclassified

“…Протягом робочого часу виробниче обладнання виділяє в робочу зону певні шкідливі виробничі фактори з інтенсивністю W, які в свою чергу накопичуються в організмі працівника. Протягом неробочого часу негативний вплив ШВФ, видаляється з організму працівника -з інтенсивністю U < W [1]. Виробниче обладнання може відмовляти у випадкові моменти часу та відновлюватись протягом випадкового проміжку часу, причому з різними статистичними характеристиками у робочому та неробочому станах.…”

unclassified

See 2 more Smart Citations

Development of Stochastic Models for Occupational Hazards Risk Assessment

Bochkovskyі

2019

Bulletin of LSULS

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Introduction. The main disadvantage of existing methods and models of risk assessment in the field of occupational safety is the failure to take into account the dynamic characteristics of the processes of random hybrid impact on the em-ployee of hazardous and harmful production factors. Such negative impact characteristics are observed during the opera-tion of any real "man-machine-environment" system, therefore, it is imperative to take into account the risk assessment.Purpose. Development of stochastic models for assessing the risks of occupational hazards in the systems of "man-machine-environment".Methods In the development of stochastic models for assessing the risks of occupational hazards, the theory of Markov processes was used, while the boundary problem was solved - the method of the Erlang fictitious phases. Results. To find the limiting probability distribution of the random process of occupational dangers origin in sys-tems "man-machine-environment", a system of differential equations in partial derivatives and corresponding limiting78 Вісник ЛДУБЖД, №19, 2019 conditions was derived, which made it possible to determine the following basic indicators for risks evaluation of oc-cupational dangers origin:– the probability of exceeding the normalized (hygiene standards) accumulation of negative influence of the harm-ful production factor;– the probability that the effects of the negative influence on the employee of the harmful factor will be completely absent at a random period;– the probability of employment injury by an employee at a random period;– the average level of accumulation in employee of negative influence against the harmful production factor, etc.It is emphasized that such indicators can be used as criteria, provided that approach of risks evaluation will be im-plemented at the state level. A method of solving the limited problem for a system of differential equations based on Laplace transformation for the case of the Erlang distribution of working and non-working periods is proposed. Conclusions. Stochastic models for risk assessment in "human-machine-environment" systems are developed, which allow to estimate the level of risk of occupational hazards according to the basic indicators characterizing the level of occupational safety. A method of solving the boundary value problem for a system of differential equations based on Laplace transformation for the case of the Erlang distribution of working and non-working time periods is developed. The obtained solution allows to find the moments of probabilistic distribution of the level of accumulation of negative influence from the action of harmful production factors in the body of the worker. hat gives the possibility of using Chebyshev's inequality to give a lower estimate of the probability of exceeding the level of the indicated nega-tive influence of the maximum - admissible (normalized) values. In the future, the practical interest is the consideration of a random process for cases of serious injury, when the employee needs a long time to undergo treatment and rehabili-tation from the consequences of injuries received during the failure of production equipment of the second type. This problem is solved within the framework of the proposed approach and presented in the study.

show abstract

unclassified

See 1 more Smart Citation

Development of Stochastic Models for Occupational Hazards Risk Assessment

Bochkovskyі

2019

Bulletin of LSULS

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…The task can be reduced to determining such intensities of the impact of the harmful production factors, whose accu mulation will not achieve the given (normalized) values in an employee during a work shift. In determining such pa rameters, it is obligatory to take into account the stochastic characteristics of both the negative impact of the harmful production factors on employee over time and the removal of consequences of such impact from the body during regu lated breaks and over hours [19].…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In this case, it can be accepted that the probability of an accident occurrence depends in some way on the current value of the level of accumulation of the negative impact of harmful production factors in an employee. Mathematically, this means that the parameters characterizing the time of impact of harmful production factors l on an employee and the time of restoration of the body from such impact μ become certain functions of x -the number of harmful substances in the em ployee's body at time t. Thus, l ik (x) should be an ascending (or nondescending) function and μ ik (x) should be a nonascend ing (or descending) function, where i and k are discrete vari ables describing the employment and working capacity of the employee at time t, during the work shift, respectively [19]. The development of methodological support for deter mining the required dependencies will allow the establishment of objective, sciencebased modes of work and rest for em ployees of different professions, using as input the parameters that can be instrumentally measured in each workplace.…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

Minimization of the “human factor” influence in Occupational Health and Safety

Bochkovskyі¹,

Sapozhnikova²

2019

NVNGU

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

miNimizATioN of The "humAN fAcTor" iNflueNce iN occuPATioNAl heAlTh AND SAfeTy Purpose. Development of conceptual bases of introduction of system approach to minimization of the "human factor" influ ence in Occupational Health and Safety. methodology. Within the research, the following complex of scientific methods was applied: analysis of scientific and technical literature, legal framework in Occupational Health and Safety and quality assurance in higher education; structural analysis-to determine the structure and causes of occupational danger occurrence; graph theory-to determine the main stages of software development for the automated accounting system and control of changes in the legal framework of Ukraine in Occupational Health and Safety; the theory of Markov processes-to determine the main directions of development of sciencebased rational modes of work and rest; methods of formalization-to develop the principles of construction an automated system for preventing "human factor" influence. findings. The analysis of the system of training of future specialists in Occupational Health and Safety is conducted and the main defects of the qualitative and quantitative composition of standards for higher education, which create conditions for negative "human factor" sign occurrence related to a deliberate breach of the normative legal acts in Occupational Health and Safety by an employee, are determined. The results of the analysis determined the main directions of minimization of given signs. The neces sity of use of mathematical tools of graph theory is substantiated and the main stages of the software development for the auto mated accounting system and control of changes to the legal framework of Ukraine in Occupational Health and Safety are deter mined. Conditions and the basic directions of construction of stochastic models for developing sciencebased rational modes of work and rest based application of a special subclass of Markov processes-Markov processes with drift-are defined. The prin ciples of construction and main functions of the automated system of the prevention of "human factor" signs that will allow for constant monitoring and operational correction of given signs, as well as control of qualitative and quantitative characteristics of the identified rational modes of work and rest are proposed. originality. For the first time, the necessity of introducing a system approach to minimization of "human factor" signs in Oc cupational Health and Safety in certain directions is substantiated. Practical value. The obtained results will be used as an analytical basis for the development of theoretical and methodological tools for introduction a system approach to minimization of "human factor" signs in "man-machine-environment" systems.

show abstract

The Influence of Parameters of Running Systems and Their Suspension on the Safety of Operators of Mobile Machines and Energy Equipment

Tverdokhlib

Polievoda²

2022

Modernization of Research Area: National Prospects and European Practices

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

The scientific work is based on the tasks of applied research on initiative topics on the topic: «Substantiation of parameters and modes of interaction of the drive wheel with the soil», state registration number 0117U006833. The authors’ research is aimed at solving current problems of vibrational vibrations on the operators of technological means. All machines and mechanisms used by man in production and in everyday life are sources of various mechanical measurements and, accordingly, hazards. Of all the types of hazards caused by mechanical influences, vibration is the most dangerous for humans. It is human physiology that contributes to the negative effects of vibration. Due to the fact that the human body consists of hard bones, soft muscles, joints, various internal organs, it can be considered as a complex oscillatory system, the mechanical reaction of which depends on the parameters of vibration. At high frequencies (less than 2 Hz), the body responds to total vibration like a hard mass. At higher frequencies, the body responds as an oscillating system with one or more degrees of freedom. This is manifested in resonance increases in the oscillations of individual organs of the body at certain frequencies. It is for the sitting body position (in which the mobile operator is most of the time) that the resonance is at a frequency of 4-6 Hz.One of the most effective ways to reduce the negative impact of vibrational vibrations on the operator is to reduce the oscillations in the source of their occurrence, as well as the path of propagation from source to operator. This can be partially achieved, including the choice of rational pressure in the wheels of the vehicle, as well as high-quality and timely diagnosis of its individual components and units. This work is devoted to these important issues, and therefore its relevance is beyond doubt.In the scientific work the question of influence of a condition of a basic surface and geometrical parameters of a wheel of a tractor on speed of its movement and frequency of vibration fluctuations which arise at it is investigated. This issue is of considerable theoretical and practical importance, because the road and wheel oscillations caused by road irregularities cause a significant deterioration in the performance of the tractor. These issues have been studied by a number of researchers, but they have varied narrowly. That is why the task was to consider more deeply the connection between the state of the wheel and the coating with the parameters of vibration oscillations that occur during movement. In theoretical studies, the relationship between the length of the wheel chords and the irregularities between the two points of contact of the wheel was established. The support surface equation was represented by a sinusoid with a variable amplitude coefficient. Depending on the ratio of the radius of the wheel and the geometric dimensions of the protrusions and depressions of the support surface, two groups of equations were obtained that describe the parameters of vibrational oscillations. The results of analytical studies were illustrated by the corresponding geometric relationships. To verify the theoretical references, experimental studies were conducted with a system for measuring the parameters of vibration oscillations of controlled axles of wheeled agricultural tractors. The study was performed on two variants of the road surface. The results of experimental research are presented graphically in the form of oscillograms of vibration acceleration of the controlled axle of the tractor, as well as in tabular form. Theoretical and experimental studies show that there is an inverse relationship between the value of the wheel radius and the parameters of vibrational oscillations. As the translational speed of the tractor increases, the parameters of vibration oscillations also increase. The aim of the work is to reduce the negative impact of vibration load on the operator of a mobile vehicle by substantiating the rational parameters of the wheel and determining the location and method of diagnosing its individual components and units. To achieve this goal you need to perform the following tasks: determine the causes of injuries in the operation of mobile vehicles; to analyze the harmful effects of vibration oscillations on the mobile operator; identify ways to reduce vehicle vibrations; to carry out mathematical formalization of the process of oscillations of the operator’s workplace; to build a mathematical model of oscillations of the system «road – vehicle – operator».In this research we used research methods to determine theoretical data based on mechanical and mathematical modeling of the interaction of elastic propulsion and curved support surface using the basic principles of theoretical mechanics and higher mathematics.

show abstract

Methodological Basis for the Use of Markov Processes for Risk Assessment in Systems «man–machine–environment»

Cited by 3 publications

References 1 publication

Development of Stochastic Models for Occupational Hazards Risk Assessment

Development of Stochastic Models for Occupational Hazards Risk Assessment

Minimization of the “human factor” influence in Occupational Health and Safety

The Influence of Parameters of Running Systems and Their Suspension on the Safety of Operators of Mobile Machines and Energy Equipment

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About