Methods for automatized detection of rapid changes in lateral boundary condition fields for NWP limited area models

Abstract

Abstract. Three-hourly temporal resolution of lateral boundary data for limited area models (LAMs) can be too infrequent to resolve rapidly moving storms. This problem is expected to be worse with increasing horizontal resolution. In order to detect intensive disturbances in surface pressure moving rapidly through the model domain, a filtered surface pressure field (MCUF) is computed operationally in the ARPEGE global model of Météo France. The field is distributed in the coupling files along with conventional meteorological fields used for lateral boundary conditions (LBCs) for the operational forecast using limited area model AL-ADIN (Aire Limitée Adaptation dynamique Développement InterNational) in the Meteorological and Hydrological Service of Croatia (DHMZ). Here an analysis is performed of the MCUF field for the LACE coupling domain for the period from 23 January 2006, when it became available, until 15 November 2014. The MCUF field is a good indicator of rapidly moving pressure disturbances (RMPDs). Its spatial and temporal distribution can be associated with the usual cyclone tracks and areas known to be supporting cyclogenesis. An alternative set of coupling files from the IFS operational run in the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) is also available operationally in DHMZ with 3-hourly temporal resolution, but the MCUF field is not available. Here, several methods are tested that detect RMPDs in surface pressure a posteriori from the IFS model fields provided in the coupling files. MCUF is computed by running ALADIN on the coupling files from IFS. The error function is computed using one-time-step integration of ALADIN on the coupling files without initialization, initialized with digital filter initialization (DFI) or scaleselective DFI (SSDFI). Finally, the amplitude of changes in the mean sea level pressure is computed from the fields in the coupling files. The results are compared to the MCUF field of ARPEGE and the results of same methods applied to the coupling files from ARPEGE. Most methods give a signal for the RMPDs, but DFI reduces the storms too much to be detected. The error functions without filtering and amplitude have more noise, but the signal of a RMPD is also stronger. The methods are tested for NWP LAM ALADIN, but could be applied to other LAMs and benefit the performance of climate LAMs.

Response to the comments of reviewer 1

“…There are episodes of severe Bura associated to local dynamical phenomena that require high-resolution forecasts using nonhydrostatic dynamics and complete ALARO physics package (Tudor and Ivatek-Šahdan, 2010). The ALARO configuration has been adapted by the Meteorological and Hydrological Service to run at a resolution of 2 km, the so-called HR-alaro-22 (indicated in Table 5).…”

The ALADIN System and its canonical model configurations AROME CY41T1 and ALARO CY40T1

“…This procedure is used operationally in the forecast suite of the Royal Meteorological Institute (RMI). Alternative ways for detecting the errors from the fields available in the telecom files from IFS have been explored (Tudor, 2015).…”