Methods for probabilistic safety assessments of ships

Kaneko, Fujio

doi:10.1007/s007730200009

Cited by 36 publications

(26 citation statements)

References 3 publications

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“…Propose a model for collision probability in a waterway area [66] Risk is defined as a product of the occurrence frequencies (or probabilities) and consequences.…”

Section: Historic Overview Of Risk Definition and Approach To Risk Anmentioning

confidence: 99%

Maritime transportation risk analysis: Review and analysis in light of some foundational issues

Goerlandt

Montewka

2015

Reliability Engineering & System Safety

267

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a b s t r a c tMany methods and applications for maritime transportation risk analysis have been presented in the literature. In parallel, there is a recent focus on foundational issues in risk analysis, with calls for intensified research on fundamental concepts and principles underlying the scientific field. This paper presents a review and analysis of risk definitions, perspectives and scientific approaches to risk analysis found in the maritime transportation application area, focusing on applications addressing accidental risk of shipping in a sea area. For this purpose, a classification of risk definitions, an overview of elements in risk perspectives and a classification of approaches to risk analysis science are applied. Results reveal that in the application area, risk is strongly tied to probability, both in definitions and perspectives, while alternative views exist. A diffuse situation is also found concerning the scientific approach to risk analysis, with realist, proceduralist and constructivist foundations co-existing. Realist approaches dominate the application area. Very few applications systematically account for uncertainty, neither concerning the evidence base nor in relation to the limitations of the risk model in relation to the space of possible outcomes. Some suggestions are made to improve the current situation, aiming to strengthen the scientific basis for risk analysis.

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“…Propose a model for collision probability in a waterway area [66] Risk is defined as a product of the occurrence frequencies (or probabilities) and consequences.…”

Section: Historic Overview Of Risk Definition and Approach To Risk Anmentioning

confidence: 99%

Maritime transportation risk analysis: Review and analysis in light of some foundational issues

Goerlandt

Montewka

2015

Reliability Engineering & System Safety

267

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

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“…The concept of a 'collision diameters' and 'ship domains' has been developed further by authors such as Pedersen (2010), Kaneko (2002Kaneko ( , 2013 and Montewka et al (2010bMontewka et al ( , 2011Montewka et al ( , 2012-who have derived their own equations to estimate the number of geometric collision candidates; the latter have developed a concept called 'Minimum Distance to Collision' (MDTC), which incorporates the physical properties of vessels, ship dynamics and even the traffic patterns in an area to assess the risk of ship-ship collisions . Equations that incorporate principles of ship domain, in combination with vessel traffic data, are also often used in tools like iWRAP (Friis-Hansen 2008).…”

Section: Geometric Probability Of Accidentsmentioning

confidence: 99%

A Theoretical Risk Management Framework for Vessels Operating Near Offshore Wind Farms

Mehdi

Schröder-Hinrichs

2016

Mare-Wint

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The design of an offshore wind farm (OWF) can have a major impact on the safety of maritime operations in the vicinity. Factors such as the number of turbines, turbine spacing, and tower design can all have an effect the probability and consequences of various maritime accidents. The current chapter describes the potential effects of offshore wind farms on maritime traffic-particularly in a safety, reliability and risk context. The chapter also reviews existing methods, models and frameworks that can be used to assess the risk to maritime operations. Lastly, the authors propose an improved theoretical risk management framework that addresses some present concerns. The Need for Maritime Risk Management Around Offshore Wind FarmsIn this first section, the status of the OWF industry and the need for maritime risk management around wind farms is described. Trends in the OWF IndustryOver the past few decades, there has been a sharp increase in the use of renewable energy-driven not only by a more mindful society, but also by strong policy instruments and decisions. One of the most popular renewable energy schemes is wind energy. As the demand for energy generation grows, an increasing number of wind turbines are being installed offshore. OWFs offer several advantages over their onshore equivalents. There is better wind resource, and the wind speeds are more consistent out at sea. Potentially, wind turbines can also be scaled up to much

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“…Therefore, the causation probability can be estimated on the basis of historical data collected in different locations and then applied to the area of interest. ( 9 ) Note that the causation probabilities for different accident scenarios are not the same. For example, according to Pedersen ( 10 ) and Otto et al ., ( 11 ) the causation probabilities for ship intersections (Fig.…”

Section: Accident Frequency Estimationmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…It should be pointed out that, different from Fujii's model, which uses ship density, that is, the number of ships per unit area, Pedersen's model uses traffic volume Q (ship flow per unit of time) in Equations (6) and (9).…”

Section: Fujii's Model and Later Developmentsmentioning

confidence: 99%

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An Overview of Maritime Waterway Quantitative Risk Assessment Models

Li¹,

Meng²,

Qu³

2011

Risk Analysis

205

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The safe navigation of ships, especially in narrow shipping waterways, is of the utmost concern to researchers as well as maritime authorities. Many researchers and practitioners have conducted studies on risk assessment for maritime transportation and have proposed risk reduction/control measures accordingly. This article provides a detailed review and assessment of various quantitative risk assessment models for maritime waterways. Eighty-seven academic papers and/or project reports are summarized and discussed. The review then proceeds to analyze the frequency and consequence estimation models separately. It should be pointed out that we further summarize the advantages and disadvantages of frequency estimation models and provide recommendations for their application. From the overview, we find that the quantification of the impact of human error is of great importance and should be considered in future studies. Possible solutions are also proposed in the discussions.

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Methods for probabilistic safety assessments of ships

Cited by 36 publications

References 3 publications

Maritime transportation risk analysis: Review and analysis in light of some foundational issues

Maritime transportation risk analysis: Review and analysis in light of some foundational issues

A Theoretical Risk Management Framework for Vessels Operating Near Offshore Wind Farms

An Overview of Maritime Waterway Quantitative Risk Assessment Models

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