MexicoSimSmoke: how changes in tobacco control policies would impact smoking prevalence and smoking attributable deaths in Mexico

Abstract

We examined the effect of tobacco control policies in Mexico on smoking prevalence and smoking-related deaths using the Mexico SimSmoke model. The model is based on the previously developed SimSmoke simulation model of tobacco control policy, and uses population size, smoking rates and tobacco control policy data for Mexico. It assesses, individually, and in combination, the effect of six tobacco control policies on smoking prevalence and smoking-related deaths. Policies included: cigarette excise taxes, smoke-free laws, anti-smoking public education campaigns, marketing restrictions, access to tobacco cessation treatments and enforcement against tobacco sales youth. The model estimates that, if Mexico were to adopt strong tobacco control policies compared to current policy levels, smoking prevalence could be reduced by 30% in the next decade and by 50% by 2053; an additional 470,000 smoking-related premature deaths could be averted over the next 40 years. The greatest impact on smoking and smoking-related deaths would be achieved by raising excise taxes on cigarettes from 55% to at least 70% of the retail price, followed by strong youth access enforcement and access to cessation treatments. Implementing tobacco control policies in Mexico could reduce smoking prevalence by 50%, and prevent 470,000 smoking-related deaths by 2053.

The Mexico SimSmoke tobacco control policy model: Development of a simulation model of daily and nondaily cigarette smoking

“…Since then no major changes to the policies have been made [1]. Despite the lack of major policy changes, previously implemented policies were reducing the smoking problem in Mexico, as observed by the validation of our previous Mexico SimSmoke models [11,12]. However, with the changes in population smoking patterns in recent years, the implemented policies appear to no longer address Mexico's population smoking patterns and needs.…”

“…Previous SimSmoke models, including the earlier Mexico model [11,[35][36][37][38], have generally validated well against country-specific smoking prevalence. However, the updated Mexico SimSmoke does not validate well against population trends, even after distinguishing daily and nondaily smokers.…”

“…To evaluate the potential effect of Mexico’s policies, the Mexico SimSmoke tobacco control simulation model was developed and validated through 2011. The model showed that overall smoking prevalence was reduced by 30% potentially due to policies implemented between 2002 and 2013 [ 11 ]. However, neither that model nor SimSmoke models developed for other countries have distinguished nondaily from daily smokers.…”

“…This study describes the update of the Mexico SimSmoke , to separately consider daily and nondaily smokers. This version builds upon the previously validated model [ 11 , 12 ], extends policy level data to 2018 and estimates the potential role of implemented policies on daily and nondaily smoking prevalence.…”

Necesidades de cobertura y atención del cáncer pulmonar en México

“…Este último punto es éticamente deseable, ya que hace que el impuesto sea menos regresivo sobre la población sin seguridad social y salva el dilema ético de no ofrecer tratamiento a este sector de la población que, además de desfavorecido, paga un impuesto especial. 32,33 El CMCT de la OMS en su artículo 6 recomienda incrementar los impuestos que representen más de 75% del precio y ajustarlo a la inflación para que sea efectivo y disminuya su asequibilidad. De igual manera, alienta a los gobiernos a destinar parte de la recaudación para el tratamiento y prevención de las consecuencias negativas producidas por el tabaco.…”