Resolution is a key parameter for differentiating among the large number of strain typing methods that could be applied to pathogens involved in bioterror events or biocrimes. In this report we develop a first-principles analysis of strain typing resolution using a simple mathematical model to provide a basis for the rational design of microbial typing systems for forensic applications. We derive two figures of merit that describe the resolving power and phylogenetic depth of a strain typing system. Rough estimates of these figures-of-merit for MLVA, MLST, IS element, AFLP, hybridization microarrays, and other bacterial typing methods are derived from mutation rate data reported in the literature. We also discuss the general problem of how to construct a "universal" practical typing system that has the highest possible resolution short of whole-genome sequencing, and that is applicable with minimal modification to a wide range of pathogens.This document was prepared as an account of work sponsored by an agency of the United States Government. Neither the United States Government nor the University of California nor any of their employees, makes any warranty, express or implied, or assumes any legal liability or responsibility for the accuracy, completeness, or usefulness of any information, apparatus, product, or process disclosed, or represents that its use would not infringe privately owned rights. Reference herein to any specific commercial product, process, or service by trade name, trademark, manufacturer, or otherwise, does not necessarily constitute or imply its endorsement, recommendation, or favoring by the United States Government or the University of California. The views and opinions of authors expressed herein do not necessarily state or reflect those of the United States Government or the University of California, and shall not be used for advertising or product endorsement purposes.This work was performed under the auspices of the U.S. Department of Energy by University of California, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory under Contract W-7405-Eng-48.
UCRL-TR-215305
Executive summaryThe resolution of a microbial strain typing system is related to its exclusionary power in an investigation of bio-terror or bio-crime cases. Resolution is thus a key parameter for differentiating among the large number of strain typing methods that could be applied to pathogens involved in such events. In this report we develop a first-principles analysis of strain typing resolution using a simple mathematical model to provide a basis for the rational design of microbial typing systems for forensic applications.The salient result derived from this analysis is a simple figure-of-merit (F.O.M.) for strain typing systems that is directly related to the probability that the typing method will recognize that two microbial lineages separated by a small number of mutations are, in fact, distinct. A second figure-of-merit describes the "phylogenetic depth" of the typing system, which is a property complementary to re...