Mid-Century Ensemble Regional Climate Change Scenarios for the Western United States

Leung, L. R.; Qian, Yun; Bian, Xindi; Washington, Warren M.; Han, Je-Chin; Roads, John O.

doi:10.1023/b:clim.0000013692.50640.55

Cited by 350 publications

(284 citation statements)

References 29 publications

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“…Warming on the order of 1-2.5°C and 1.5-3.5°C is noted over the western U.S. in respectively (Figs. 13a,b), in consistence with the regional warming identified in Leung et al (2004), Salathé et al (2008), and Salathé et al (2009). In ECHAM5-WRF, warming is about 0.5-1°C larger over the Southwest U.S. than the PNW (Fig.…”

Section: Future Changesmentioning

confidence: 52%

ENSO anomalies over the Western United States: present and future patterns in regional climate simulations

et al. 2011

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Surface temperature, precipitation, specific humidity and wind anomalies associated with the warm and cold phases of ENSO simulated by WRF and HadRM are examined for the present and future decades. WRF is driven by ECHAM5 and CCSM3, respectively, and HadRM is driven by HadCM3. For the current decades, the ECHAM5-WRF, CCSM3-WRF and HadRM simulations are broadly consistent with the observed warm-dry and cool-wet teleconnection patterns over the Pacific Northwest (PNW) and the Southwest U.S. for warm and cold ENSO. Differences in the regional simulations originate primarily from the respective driving fields. For the future decades, the warm-dry and cold-wet teleconnection patterns in association with ENSO are still represented in ECHAM5-WRF and HadRM. However, there are indications of changes in the ENSO teleconnection patterns in CCSM3-WRF in the future, with wet anomalies dominating in the PNW and the Southwest U.S. for both warm and cold ENSO, in contrast to the canonical patterns of precipitation anomalies. Interaction of anomalous wind flow with local terrain plays a critical role in the generation of anomalous precipitation over the western U.S. Anomalous dry conditions are always associated with anomalous airflow that runs in parallel to local mountains and wet conditions with airflow that runs in perpendicular to local mountains. Future changes in temperature, precipitation and wind associated with the ENSO events in the ECHAM5-WRF and HadRM simulations appear to suggest weakening of teleconnection patterns for warm ENSO but strengthening of teleconnection patterns for cold ENSO.

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Section: Future Changesmentioning

confidence: 52%

ENSO anomalies over the Western United States: present and future patterns in regional climate simulations

et al. 2011

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“…General Circulation Models (GCMs) have an output resolution of approximately 150-300 km (Leung et al, 2004). Although appropriate for global-scale studies, this resolution is inadequate for areas with complex terrain, urban areas (which produce highly-localized effects), or impact studies (Wilby et al, 2002;Leung et al, 2004).…”

Section: Extreme Value Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Although appropriate for global-scale studies, this resolution is inadequate for areas with complex terrain, urban areas (which produce highly-localized effects), or impact studies (Wilby et al, 2002;Leung et al, 2004). The use of regional information will be necessary for this study, which examines climate change impacts on air quality in an urban area characterized by complex terrain.…”

Section: Extreme Value Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate‐based sensitivity of air quality to climate change scenarios for the southwestern United States

Wise

2008

Intl Journal of Climatology

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ABSTRACT:The need to understand future trends in air quality is an issue that is frequently raised by air quality planners and managers. The potential for extreme events is of particular interest, but forecasts are difficult using traditional methods and further complicated by predictions of future climate change. This study aims to address this research need through a climate-based sensitivity study of ground-level ozone and particulate matter (PM) in the U.S. Southwest. Extreme value methods were used to examine ozone and PM in Tucson, Arizona, over the time period 1990-2001. A Statistical DownScaling Model (SDSM) was employed to build regression-based models between gridded meteorological data and point time series of ozone and PM. Following model calibration and verification, future climate-based ozone and PM scenarios were created for 2002-2050 and 2051-2099. Daily output of projected ozone and PM were then subjected to extreme value methods in order to estimate climate-based changes in ozone and PM extremes over the next century. Results indicate that monthly mean and extreme ozone values are sensitive to predicted increases in temperature, particularly in the summer months. PM results are less certain but suggest that PM may be sensitive to changing moisture conditions.

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“…Several studies (e.g. Leung et al, 2004) have illustrated how dynamical downscaling provides 'added value' for the study of climate change and its potential impacts, as regional climate change signals can be significantly different from those projected by GCMs because of orographic forcing and rain-shadowing effects. Dynamical downscaling can also provide improved simulation of meso-scale precipitation processes and thus higher moment climate statistics ; producing more plausible climate change scenarios for extreme events and climate variability at the regional scale.…”

Section: • Computationally Intensivementioning

confidence: 99%

“…Christensen et al, 1998), and ensemble RCM simulations (e.g. Leung et al, 2004), particularly the European FP5 Prediction of Regional scenarios and Uncertainties for defining European Climate change risks and Effects (PRUDENCE) project and the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP) project (Mearns et al, 2006), are becoming more common. These improve the realism of control simulations; more accurate variability and extreme event statistics are simulated by higher spatial and temporal resolution models (e.g.…”

Section: • Computationally Intensivementioning

confidence: 99%

Linking climate change modelling to impacts studies: recent advances in downscaling techniques for hydrological modelling

Fowler

Blenkinsop

Tebaldi

2007

Intl Journal of Climatology

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1,491

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Abstract:There is now a large published literature on the strengths and weaknesses of downscaling methods for different climatic variables, in different regions and seasons. However, little attention is given to the choice of downscaling method when examining the impacts of climate change on hydrological systems. This review paper assesses the current downscaling literature, examining new developments in the downscaling field specifically for hydrological impacts. Sections focus on the downscaling concept; new methods; comparative methodological studies; the modelling of extremes; and the application to hydrological impacts.Consideration is then given to new developments in climate scenario construction which may offer the most potential for advancement within the 'downscaling for hydrological impacts' community, such as probabilistic modelling, pattern scaling and downscaling of multiple variables and suggests ways that they can be merged with downscaling techniques in a probabilistic climate change scenario framework to assess the uncertainties associated with future projections. Within hydrological impact studies there is still little consideration given to applied research; how the results can be best used to enable stakeholders and managers to make informed, robust decisions on adaptation and mitigation strategies in the face of many uncertainties about the future. It is suggested that there is a need for a move away from comparison studies into the provision of decision-making tools for planning and management that are robust to future uncertainties; with examination and understanding of uncertainties within the modelling system.

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Mid-Century Ensemble Regional Climate Change Scenarios for the Western United States

Cited by 350 publications

References 29 publications

ENSO anomalies over the Western United States: present and future patterns in regional climate simulations

ENSO anomalies over the Western United States: present and future patterns in regional climate simulations

Climate‐based sensitivity of air quality to climate change scenarios for the southwestern United States

Linking climate change modelling to impacts studies: recent advances in downscaling techniques for hydrological modelling

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