Millennial solar irradiance forcing (Hallstatt’s cycle) in the terrestrial temperature variations

Abstract

<p>In this paper we explore the millennial oscillations (or Hallstatt cycle) of the baseline solar magnetic field, total solar irradiance and baseline terrestrial temperature detected from Principal Component Analysis of the observed solar background magnetic field. We confirm the existence of these oscillations with a period of 2100-2200 years with the similar oscillations detected in carbon 14C isotope abundances and with wavelet analysis of solar irradiance in the past 12 millennia indicating the presence of this  millennial period among a few others. We also test again the idea expressed in our paper Zharkova et al, 2019 that solar inertial motion (SIM) can cause these millennial variations because of a change of the distance between the Sun and Earth. In this paper we use the S-E distance derived from the current JPL ephemeris, finding that currently starting from the Maunder minimum the Sun-Earth  distance is reducing by 0.00025 au per 100 years, or by 0.0025 au per 1000 years.. We present the estimation of variations of solar irradiance caused by this variation of the S-E distance caused by solar inertial motion (SIM) demonstrating these variations to be closely comparable with the observed variations of the solar irradiance measured by the SATIRE payload. We also estimate the baseline temperature variations since Maunder Minimum caused by the increase of solar irradiance caused by the recovery from grand solar minimum and by reduction of the S-E distance caused by  SIM. These estimations show that the Sun will still continue moving towards the Earth in the next 700 years that will result in the increase of the baseline terrestrial temperature by up to 2.5◦C in 2700. These variations of solar irradiance will be over-imposed by the variations of solar activity of 11 cycles and the two grand solar minima occurring in 2020-2053 and 2370-2415 caused by the double dynamo actions inside the Sun.</p>

Millennial Oscillations of Solar Irradiance and Magnetic Field in 600–2600

“…These waves start in the opposite hemispheres while travelling with an increasing phase shift to the Northern hemisphere (in odd cycles) and to the Southern hemisphere (in even cycles) [7,10]. The summary curve of these two waves is found close to the averaged sunspot numbers, which define the current solar activity index [9,10].…”

“…Zharkova et al [7] explored the solar background magnetic field and found the eigen values of the own oscillations of the Sun, by applying Principal Component Analysis (PCA) to the low-resolution full disk magnetograms captured in cycles 21-23 by the Wilcox Solar Observatory. This approach allowed authors to replace a complex magnetic field seen on the solar surface, the photosphere, with the separate wave components, eight plus eigen vectors, which appeared in pairs [8].…”

“…Zharkova et al [7] explored the solar background magnetic field and found the eigen values of the own oscillations of the Sun, by applying Principal Component Analysis (PCA) to the low-resolution full disk magnetograms captured in cycles 21-23 by the Wilcox Solar Observatory. This approach allowed authors to replace a complex magnetic field seen on the solar surface, the photosphere, with the separate wave components, eight plus eigen vectors, which appeared in pairs [8]. The pair of the two principal components (PCs) are the strongest waves of solar magnetic oscillations covering about 67% of the data by standard deviation, with the nearly-equal largest eigen-values, which oscillate with not equal periods of about 11 years [9,10].…”

How much has the Sun influenced Northern Hemisphere temperature trends? An ongoing debate

“…This was indeed a mistake as noted by, e.g., Scafetta (2020) [260]. Also, much of the rest of the article built on earlier analysis that has been separately criticised, e.g., Usoskin (2018) [319] (although defended by the authors [320]). However, given that the mistake in question only really related to a subsection of the paper and one sentence in their conclusions, it is surprising that the reaction of the journal was to retract the article rather than encourage the authors to issue a corrigendum.…”

“…As another example, Zharkova et al ( 2019) [317] was retracted (despite the objections of three of the four authors [318]) because, in one of the subsections in the paper, the authors appear to have made a mistake in their interpretation of SPI theory. Specifically, in their penultimate subsection, they appear to have mistakenly overlooked the fact that as the barycenter of the solar system moves, the Earth mostly moves in tandem with the Sun, i.e., the Earth-Sun distance does not fluctuate as much as they had assumed.…”