In explaining the prevalence of the overconfident belief that one is better than others, prior work has focused on the motive to maintain high self esteem, abetted by biases in attention, memory, and cognition. An additional possibility is that overconfidence enhances the person's social status. We tested this status enhancing account of overconfidence in six studies. Studies 1 through 3 found overconfidence leads to higher social status in both short and longer term groups, using naturalistic and experimental designs. Study 4 applied a Brunswikian (1956) lens analysis and found that overconfidence leads to a behavioral signature that makes the individual appear competent to others. Studies 5 and 6 measured and experimentally manipulated the desire for status and found that the status motive promotes overconfidence. Together, these studies suggest that people might so often believe they are better than others because it helps them achieve higher social status.Keywords: overconfidence, self perception, status, power, groups, person perception
3STATUS ENHANCEMENT ACCOUNT OF OVERCONFIDENCE A Status Enhancement Account of OverconfidenceThe pervasiveness of overconfidence is somewhat puzzling. Individuals not only tend to have positive self perceptions, they often believe they are more talented and competent than others, even when they are not (for reviews, see Alicke & Govorun, 2005; Dunning, Heath, & Suls, 2004). To mention just a few examples, individuals tend to overplace their occupational abilities (Haun, Zeringue, Leach, & Foley, 2000), social skills (Swann & Gill, 1997), and physical talents relative to those of others (Dunning, Meyerowitz, & Holzberg, 1989; for exceptions, see Kruger & Burrus, 2004;Moore & Small, 2007). The propensity for overconfidence is puzzling because being able to accurately place one's abilities relative to those of others is clearly useful (e.g., Alicke, 1985; Dunning et al., 2004;. Recognizing one's limitations would help people set more realistic goals (Ehrlinger & Dunning, 2003), avoid contests one will lose (Camerer & Lovallo, 1999), and select strategies that facilitate success (Neale & Bazerman, 1985), for example.
So why would individuals form overly positive judgments of their abilities?Scholars have mostly offered two explanations. The first explanation posits a motivated bias: Individuals are driven to be confident because it provides them with psychological benefits (Dunning, Leuenberger, & Sherman, 1995; Kunda, 1987). For example, self confidence can improve self esteem (Alicke, 1985), mental health (Taylor & Brown, 1988), and task motivation and persistence (Pajares, 1996). The second explanation highlights the cognitive processes that may sometimes produce directional biases. People might simply be unable to accurately assess their own competence and arrive at biased self views from fairly mundane judgment processes. For example, biased self views can 4STATUS ENHANCEMENT ACCOUNT OF OVERCONFIDENCE arise simply because people are more likely to intend success ...