Minimizing Investment Risk of Integrated Rail and Transit-Oriented-Development Projects over Years in a Linear Monocentric City

Abstract

Rail and transit-oriented-development (TOD) projects are simultaneously optimized in this paper, with special consideration given to yearly variation and spatial and temporal correlation of population densities. In the proposed model, the objective is to minimize the investment risk of integrated rail and TOD projects with a given required expected return on investment. The investment risk is optimized based on closed-form solutions of the design variables, including rail line length, the number of TOD projects, and the number of housing units in each TOD project. The closed-form solutions are given explicitly under the assumption of social welfare maximization. It is found that underestimation exists for rail and TOD projects without consideration of the correlation of spatial and temporal population densities. TOD projects can greatly improve the return on investment of the rail operator. A numerical example is also presented.

Risk Management of Investment Projects Based on Artificial Neural Network

“…It can also be optimized by the optimization algorithm. When working with the BP network, the project of the enterprise can also be estimated, and the identification of the efficiency of the enterprise is very high, as shown in Figures 9 and 10; the resolution accuracy is also better [13]. Some scientists combine back propagation algorithm with optimization algorithm and find that it can solve some enterprise problems well [14].…”

The identification of hazards concerning the character of construction works on railway sites in Poland

“…Therefore, in order to build railway infrastructure for the next several decades, it is necessary to be able to anticipate the dangers that these investments may face and to adequately prepare for countermeasures. It is also worth emphasizing that the realization of railway facilities has its own characteristics, which at least in part does not concern only works performed under Polish conditions but also in other countries [2,6,8,11,13,14] which may soon become the area of activity of Polish construction companies. It is even more vital to analyze the potential risks that must be taken into account when applying for a contract and planning work.…”