As a prelude to several chapters describing the construction of a matched control group, the current chapter presents an example of a matched observational study as it might (and did) appear in a scientific journal. When reporting a matched observational study, the matching methods are described very briefly in the Methods section. In more detail, the Results section presents tables or figures showing that the matching has been effective in balancing certain observed covariates, so that treated and control groups are comparable with respect to these specific variables. The Results section then compares outcomes in treated and control groups. Because matching has arranged matters to compare ostensibly comparable groups, the comparison of outcomes is often both simpler in form and more detailed in content than it might be if separate adjustments were required for each aspect of each outcome. Treated and control groups that appear comparable in terms of a specific list of measured covariates -groups that are ostensibly comparable -may nonetheless differ in terms of covariates that were not measured. Though not discussed in the current chapter, the important issue of unmeasured covariates in this example is discussed in Part III.
Is More Chemotherapy More Effective?Jeffrey Silber, Dan Polsky, Richard Ross, Orit Even-Shoshan, Sandy Schwartz, Katrina Armstrong, Tom Randall, and I [6,8] asked how the intensity of chemotherapy for ovarian cancer affected patient outcomes. We thought that greater intensity might prolong survival, perhaps at the cost of increased toxicity. What evidence bears on this question?There is a basic difficulty in studying the intended effects of medical treatments outside of randomized controlled clinical trials [9]. In virtually all areas of medicine, most of the variation in treatment occurs in thoughtful and deliberate response to variation in the health, prognosis or wishes of patients. That is, treatment assignment is very far from being determined 'at random.' Ovarian cancer is 153 P.R. Rosenbaum, Design of Observational Studies, Springer Series in Statistics,