Mining Online Social Media to Drive Psychologically Valid Agent Models of Regional Covid-19 Mask Wearing

Pirolli, Peter; Carley, Kathleen M.; Dalton, Adam; Dorr, Bonnie J.; Lebière, Christian; Martin, Michael K.; Mather, Brodie; Mitsopoulos, Konstantinos; Orr, Mark; Strzalkowski, Tomek

doi:10.1007/978-3-030-80387-2_5

Cited by 4 publications

(8 citation statements)

References 13 publications

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“…In previous research, we performed PVA simulations (Pirolli et al, 2020(Pirolli et al, , 2021 to demonstrate the feasibility of mining online media to seed computational models of behaviorchange for NPIs (e.g., mask-wearing; social distancing), predicting the timeseries of behavior change for different US regions, and connecting that to epidemiological indicators such as R t (effective reproduction number). That research developed a framework that integrates multi-level cognitive and social simulation with information networks analysis and epidemiological predictions.…”

Section: Previous Work On Cognitive Models Of Covid-19 Behavior Changementioning

confidence: 99%

“…The PVAs were initialized and driven using techniques that extract indicators of pandemic awareness, beliefs, and attitudes from online media and available COVID-19 datasets (including polling and epidemiological data). Pirolli et al (2021) modeled maskwearing behavior in four states of United States (CA, FL, PA, and NY). Two analyses of COVID-19 Twitter datasets provided inputs to the PVA models.…”

Section: Previous Work On Cognitive Models Of Covid-19 Behavior Changementioning

confidence: 99%

“…Public health response options to pandemics such as COVID-19 are greatly influenced by predictive epidemiological models (Adam, 2020;Pirolli et al, 2020Pirolli et al, , 2021Cramer et al, 2022). Non-pharmaceutical interventions, such as mask wearing, typically involve attempts to modify human behavior to reduce the routes by which a pathogen is transmitted (West et al, 2020;Harvey et al, 2021).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The availability of these data provides us with an opportunity to understand behavior-change with predictive, explanatory, computational cognitive models. Our preliminary research (Pirolli et al, 2020(Pirolli et al, , 2021 on cognitive models of pandemic behavior response to COVID-19 focused on modeling beliefs, attitudes, intentions, and behavior that are assumed to influence the transmission of COVID-19. Our approach uses Psychologically Valid Agents (PVAs) implemented in the ACT-R (Adaptive Control of Thought-Rational) architecture (Anderson et al, 2004), with input drivers induced from heterogeneous sources including online media such as Twitter that provide indicators of pandemic awareness, beliefs, and attitudes (Pirolli et al, 2020).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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A computational cognitive model of behaviors and decisions that modulate pandemic transmission: Expectancy-value, attitudes, self-efficacy, and motivational intensity

Pirolli

Lebière²,

Orr³

2023

Front. Psychol.

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We present a computational cognitive model that incorporates and formalizes aspects of theories of individual-level behavior change and present simulations of COVID-19 behavioral response that modulates transmission rates. This formalization includes addressing the psychological constructs of attitudes, self-efficacy, and motivational intensity. The model yields signature phenomena that appear in the oscillating dynamics of mask wearing and the effective reproduction number, as well as the overall increase of rates of mask-wearing in response to awareness of an ongoing pandemic.

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Section: Previous Work On Cognitive Models Of Covid-19 Behavior Changementioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Previous Work On Cognitive Models Of Covid-19 Behavior Changementioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 2 more Smart Citations

A computational cognitive model of behaviors and decisions that modulate pandemic transmission: Expectancy-value, attitudes, self-efficacy, and motivational intensity

Pirolli

Lebière²,

Orr³

2023

Front. Psychol.

Self Cite

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“…Thus, they can be used to optimize behavior-change interventions, both in design or as an online surveillance aid. For example, our recent work has integrated cognitive modeling using ACT-R with network simulations of population responses to public health messages of non-pharmaceutical interventions and their impact on epidemiological spread (Pirolli et al, 2021(Pirolli et al, , 2020; another similar example is the modeling of the effects of (in)coherence of messaging and sources on credibility Liao et al (2012).…”

Section: Psychological Theory Cognitive Architectures and Cognitive M...mentioning

confidence: 99%

A Ten-Year Prospectus for Mathematical Epidemiology

Orr

Mortveit²,

Pirolli³

et al. 2022

Preprint

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There is little significant work at the intersection of mathematical and computational epidemiology and detailed psychological processes, representations and mechanisms. This is true despite general agreement in the scientific community and the general public that human behavior–in its seemingly infinite variation and heterogeneity, susceptibility to bias, context and habit–is an integral if not fundamental component of what drives the dynamics of infectious disease. The COVID-19 pandemic serves as a close and poignant reminder. We offer a ten-year prospectus of kinds that centers around an unprecedented scientific approach: the integration of detailed psychological models into rigorous mathematical and computational epidemiological frameworks in a way that pushes the boundaries of both psychological science and population models of behavior.

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Computational Modeling of Regional Dynamics of Pandemic Behavior using Psychologically Valid Agents

Pirolli,

Teng,

Lebiere

et al. 2024

Preprint

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Regional Psychologically Valid Agents (R-PVAs) are computational models representing cognition and behavior of regional populations. R-PVAs are developed using ACT-R—a computational implementation of the Common Model of Cognition. We developed R-PVAs to model mask-wearing behavior in the U.S. over the pre-vaccination phase of COVID-19 using regionally organized demographic, psychographic, epidemiological, information diet, and behavioral data. An R-PVA using a set of five regional predictors selected by stepwise regression, a psychological self-efficacy process, and context-awareness of the effective transmission number, Rt, yields good fits to the observed proportion of the population wearing masks in 50 U.S. states [R2 = 0.92]. An R-PVA based on regional Big 5 personality traits yields strong fits [R2 = 0.83]. R-PVAs can be probed with combinations of population traits and time-varying context to predict behavior. R-PVAs are a novel technique to understand dynamical, nonlinear relations amongst context, traits, states, and behavior based on cognitive modeling.

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Mining Online Social Media to Drive Psychologically Valid Agent Models of Regional Covid-19 Mask Wearing

Cited by 4 publications

References 13 publications

A computational cognitive model of behaviors and decisions that modulate pandemic transmission: Expectancy-value, attitudes, self-efficacy, and motivational intensity

A computational cognitive model of behaviors and decisions that modulate pandemic transmission: Expectancy-value, attitudes, self-efficacy, and motivational intensity

A Ten-Year Prospectus for Mathematical Epidemiology

Computational Modeling of Regional Dynamics of Pandemic Behavior using Psychologically Valid Agents

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