Model of Technology Foresight: An innovative approach

Boutellier, Roman; Deplazes, Ursula; Loffler, K.

doi:10.1109/iemc.2007.5235062

Cited by 4 publications

(4 citation statements)

References 33 publications

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“…At last, as with other foresight methods – and strategic management in general – managers still need to consider the risk that no matter how brilliant the analysis and conclusions are, firms may still fail in achieving actual change. In other words, they need to take the so-called “implementation gap” into account (Boutellier et al , 2007). When using backcasting, this risk should be reduced if the workshops involve the right people.…”

Section: Limitations and Challenges When Applying Backcasting In Strategic Managementmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Backcasting as a strategic management tool for meeting VUCA challenges

Thorén

Vendel

2019

JSMA

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Purpose Backcasting helps managers involve and align the organization throughout a strategy process. Its core idea is creating a logical path from a depicted future back to the present, to share, analyze and manage strategic challenges. Still its use in strategic management is under-researched. The purpose of this paper is to verify the relevance and validity of backcasting as a strategic management tool. It also analyzes and structures knowledge about backcasting and its practical application in strategic management. Design/methodology/approach This paper employs desktop research method to outline the benefits and limitations of backcasting for strategy formation under VUCA conditions. Findings Backcasting can help organizations overcome cognitive barriers and broaden the scope of options when analyzing future positions. The research provides insights regarding the potential and limitations of backcasting when addressing uncertainty and its drivers. For instance, it helps managers to assess and align visions; increase the understanding and clarity regarding complex dependencies; as well as improve strategic agility. Practical implications Backcasting is exceptionally useful for investigating possible futures and alternative paths to it. Backcasting is an interactive workshop-based method that challenges prevailing mindsets by assuming we are in the future, looking back towards today to find a feasible path when major transitions are necessary. With it, managers can deal with even the most uncertain decisions in a structured manner. Originality/value Backcasting for many reasons has a great potential as a tool for strategy development. It has been successfully applied in other fields but only to a limited extent in business. This paper formally examines its applicability in this context and demonstrates its relevance for dealing with VUCA challenges.

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Section: Limitations and Challenges When Applying Backcasting In Strategic Managementmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…To effectively support action, they need to be supplemented by additional strategizing methods. Otherwise the scenario processes may end up as soon forgotten exercises in creativity without sufficient impact on strategy formulation (Boutellier et al , 2007).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Backcasting as a strategic management tool for meeting VUCA challenges

Thorén

Vendel

2019

JSMA

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“…It is roughly possible to divide Technology Foresight (TF) literature into two main groups: (1) literature on national and industry programs and (2) research on TF in firms (Boutellier et al, 2007;Schlossstein & Park, 2006;Saritas et al, 2006;Blind et al, 1998).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Technology Foresight about R&D Projects Selection: application of SWARA method at the policy making level

Zolfani

Salimi

Maknoon

et al. 2015

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In recent years, different countries and communities started to rely on future studies for planning and management programming. With the emergence of diverse technologies each day, the importance of future studies has become clearer than ever before. Technology foresight is an integral part of decision and policy making at the top level of governance, especially in countries with governmental economics such as Iran which is one of such countries with complicated economic and governmental systems in many areas. For Iran as a developing country, one of the most important sections of technology foresight is planning and decision making on R&D project selection. The present study focuses on introducing a new line in this part of future studies in the country. To this end, a model is established and SWARA method is applied for evaluating the model. SWARA is a new effective MADM method for evaluating criteria at the top level of decision and policy making bodies. The most important part of this study is about identifying the importance of criteria and sub-criteria of the established model for R&D projects selection in Iran. This research proposes a general framework for starting a new horizon in research activities in Iran.

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“…When it comes to mixed approach -i.e. generations based on certain era and activities-Reger[30] determines three generations based on technology foresight process and assigns certain time intervals per generation[31]: I. First generation (from 1960s to beginning of 1970s): Technology foresight was carried out within organizations and focused on forecasting and prediction.…”

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confidence: 99%

New foresight generation and framework of foresight

Yuksel¹,

Cifci²,

Çakır³

2018

Pressacademia

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The article starts with various definitions of technology foresight from the literature and new definition is given by the authors. Prominent definitions of foresight are analyzed and given according to their different elements in the literature. By assessing the evolution of foresight as a term and its five generations through time, the foresight of sixth generation is set forth. Based on the literature analysis, foresight generations are grouped into four main categories. Foresight frameworks are analyzed and a generic foresight functional model with nine consecutive phases named 'FORESIGHT' is suggested. Functions in the FORESIGHT model are matched with the phases of main foresight frameworks in the literature based on their actions and artifacts within specific phases. It is like a guide for practitioners of which activities are carried out in foresight studies.

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Model of Technology Foresight: An innovative approach

Cited by 4 publications

References 33 publications

Backcasting as a strategic management tool for meeting VUCA challenges

Backcasting as a strategic management tool for meeting VUCA challenges

Technology Foresight about R&D Projects Selection: application of SWARA method at the policy making level

New foresight generation and framework of foresight

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