Model prediction of frost tolerance as related to winter survival of wheat in Finnish field trials

Bergjord, Anne Kari; Bonesmo, Helge; Skjelvåg, Arne Oddvar

doi:10.2137/145960610791542343

Cited by 7 publications

(9 citation statements)

References 16 publications

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“…The validation study of FROSTOL using field data from Finland (Bergjord et al 2010) indicated that often more than one simulated frost event was necessary to reduce the plant density by 50%, suggesting that LT50 min might underestimate the plants' ability to withstand frost exposure in the field. These results suggest that more research is needed to determine the relationship between frost tolerance in standard freezing test and in the field.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…This model simulates the hardening and de-hardening of winter wheat and expresses the wheat frost tolerance by the LT50. The ability of the FROSTOL model to simulate winter wheat injury due to low temperatures has previously been evaluated for conditions which represent northern Europe (Bergjord et al 2010). The simulation with FROSTOL starts at planting and continues until the end of the winter season.…”

Section: Description Of the Frost Tolerance Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…These 2 frost tolerance types represent a number of commonly grown winter wheat cultivars in northern Europe (Bergjord et al 2010). Three geographical locations in Norway were included in the simulations: Apelsvoll, Oppland County (60°42' N, 10°52' E); Ås, Akershus County (59°40' N, 10°48' E); and Kvithamar, Nord-Trøndelag County (63°29' N, 10°52' E) (Fig.…”

Section: Model Applicationmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Major constraints to winter wheat production in northern Europe and other coldtemperate climate regions, e.g. Canada and the northern USA, are the risk of winter kill due to low temperature (Skinner & Mackey 2009, Bergjord et al 2010, other winter stress factors such as ice encasement (Hakala et al 2011) and fungal infections (Iriki et al 2001, Matsumoto 2009). There is considerable variability in climate and weather conditions over time and space in northwestern Europe (HansenBauer et al 2009), and this imposes an uncertainty in winter survival and thus also in the predicted yield of winter wheat.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…the temperature at which 50% of the plants die. A refined version of this model, called FROSTOL, has been developed for evaluation of winter wheat survival in Norway (Bergjord et al 2008) and other regions in northern Europe (Bergjord et al 2010). The FROSTOL model can also be applied to determine the effect of NAO on winter wheat hardening and winter survival and to identify management practices, e.g.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 4 more Smart Citations

Simulating the effect of the North Atlantic Oscillation on frost injury in winter wheat

Persson¹,

Bergjord²,

Höglind³

2012

Clim. Res.

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Climate and weather variability affect agricultural crop production. The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is the variation in air pressure difference in the northern Atlantic Ocean. A positive NAO index with higher than normal air pressure near the Azores and lower than normal near Iceland results in warm and wet winters in northwestern Europe. A negative NAO index gives opposite climatic effects in this region. We determined the effect of the NAO on the risk of frost injury in winter wheat for conditions that represent northwestern Europe by applying the FROSTOL model to dynamically simulate hardening, de-hardening and other physiological processes determining frost tolerance and frost injury in winter wheat. This model uses soil surface temperature and snow cover as driving variables. In total, 53 winter seasons from 1957−58 to 2009−10 were simulated to account for historical trends and variations in the NAO. Monthly and seasonal mean NAO indices for all years within this period were categorised into positive, neutral or negative phases. The winter wheat simulations included 3 locations in Norway (Apelsvoll, Ås and Kvithamar), 2 wheat frost tolerance types and 3 planting dates. The results showed that negative NAO phases, especially in February and March, increased the risk of frost injury in winter wheat. The risk of frost injury was higher at Apelsvoll and Ås than at Kvithamar, especially in negative NAO phases or after early planting. The results obtained can be used to design crop management practices and systems with higher production security.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Description Of the Frost Tolerance Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Model Applicationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 3 more Smart Citations

Simulating the effect of the North Atlantic Oscillation on frost injury in winter wheat

Persson¹,

Bergjord²,

Höglind³

2012

Clim. Res.

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Snowed in for survival: Quantifying the risk of winter damage to overwintering field crops in northern temperate latitudes

Vico

Hurry

Weih

2014

Agricultural and Forest Meteorology

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From extreme weather to impacts: The role of the areas of concern maps in the JRC MARS bulletin

Seguini

Attila

Baruth

2019

Agricultural Systems

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Each month the JRC issues the MARS Bulletin detailing the agro-meteorological and expert analysis underpinning the assessment of European crops’ status and yield forecasts. In this context a resume is provided to give an overview on the geographical distribution of eventual crop damages. The MARS Bulletin provides such information in a set of synthetic maps (Areas of Concern), produced in each Bulletin, depicting extreme weather events and their impact on crops that have occurred in Europe during the analysis period. The present article describes the mix of quantitative and qualitative datasets and methodologies that drive the delineation of the Areas of Concern (AOC) maps and evaluates their capability to resemble crop production losses. The quantitative analysis is based on the Mars Crop Yield Forecasting System (MCYFS) indicators coming from meteorological models, crop growth models and remote sensing data. Indicators are considered in absolute and relative terms and in their relation with standard statistical metrics. The outcome of the quantitative analysis is a set of potential Areas of Concern. Experts’ judgment is thus necessary to discriminate potential results through a qualitative analysis focused on: past occurred events and climatologic conditions; agro-management practices; regional agricultural systems peculiarity and their historical resilience and resistance to adverse conditions. In this article the experts’ judgment of the team of current MARS analysts, as used in the AOC analysis, is translated into a warning index. Such index condenses the specific contribution to the final production of each development stage and the adverse agrometeorological events occurred, as depicted into the AOC maps. The warning index is computed at country scale for the past five agricultural seasons, from season 2011-2012 to season 2015-2016. Two crops are considered, winter wheat and grain maize as proxy for winter and summer crop groups. The warning indexes calculated are then compared to the national production in a qualitative way. To support the analysis few study cases are presented. The findings of this article highlight that the events depicted in the AOC maps are informative about production losses and specific knowledge is needed to full understand the information carried.

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Model prediction of frost tolerance as related to winter survival of wheat in Finnish field trials

Cited by 7 publications

References 16 publications

Simulating the effect of the North Atlantic Oscillation on frost injury in winter wheat

Simulating the effect of the North Atlantic Oscillation on frost injury in winter wheat

Snowed in for survival: Quantifying the risk of winter damage to overwintering field crops in northern temperate latitudes

From extreme weather to impacts: The role of the areas of concern maps in the JRC MARS bulletin

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