Simulating the effect of the North Atlantic Oscillation on frost injury in winter wheat

Abstract

Climate and weather variability affect agricultural crop production. The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is the variation in air pressure difference in the northern Atlantic Ocean. A positive NAO index with higher than normal air pressure near the Azores and lower than normal near Iceland results in warm and wet winters in northwestern Europe. A negative NAO index gives opposite climatic effects in this region. We determined the effect of the NAO on the risk of frost injury in winter wheat for conditions that represent northwestern Europe by applying the FROSTOL model to dynamically simulate hardening, de-hardening and other physiological processes determining frost tolerance and frost injury in winter wheat. This model uses soil surface temperature and snow cover as driving variables. In total, 53 winter seasons from 1957−58 to 2009−10 were simulated to account for historical trends and variations in the NAO. Monthly and seasonal mean NAO indices for all years within this period were categorised into positive, neutral or negative phases. The winter wheat simulations included 3 locations in Norway (Apelsvoll, Ås and Kvithamar), 2 wheat frost tolerance types and 3 planting dates. The results showed that negative NAO phases, especially in February and March, increased the risk of frost injury in winter wheat. The risk of frost injury was higher at Apelsvoll and Ås than at Kvithamar, especially in negative NAO phases or after early planting. The results obtained can be used to design crop management practices and systems with higher production security.

Linking crop yield anomalies to large-scale atmospheric circulation in Europe

“…ENSO-induced variability and its influence on crop yields have been investigated globally ( Iizumi et al, 2014 ) as well as for several different regions of the world: USA ( Hansen et al, 1999 ), southern America ( Ferreyra et al, 2001 ), Australia ( Meinke and Hochman, 2000 ) and Zimbabwe ( Phillips et al, 1998 ). Several local/regional studies in Europe support the existence of a relationship between crop yields and large-scale atmospheric patterns ( Irannezhad and Klöve, 2015 , Brown, 2013 , Sepp and Saue, 2012 , Persson et al, 2012 , Kettlewell et al, 2003 , Gimeno et al, 2002 ). However, these studies are limited to small spatial domains.…”

Does decadal climate variation influence wheat and maize production in the southeast USA?

“…The effects of long-term climate patterns such as the AMO, PDO, and NAO are not just limited to a particular region. Besides the southeast USA, the importance of these long-term climate patterns for crop productions were also found in other regions of the world (e.g., Atkinson et al, 2005;Gimeno et al, 2002;Persson et al, 2012). Similar to ENSO impacts on crop yields at a global scale (Iizumi et al, 2014), long-term climate patterns such as the AMO, PDO, and NAO could also be considered when investigating the climate impacts on global crop production.…”

Effects of cyclic variability in Pacific decadal oscillation on winter wheat production in China

“…The effects of PDO climate patterns are not limited to a specific region, and crop production, water resources, and other agricultural inputs are also affected by PDO (Miller et al ., 2004). The winter wheat yield increases during positive PDO years and decreases in negative PDO years in the representative sites, but these PDO‐influenced climate patterns are important for winter wheat production in other regions of the world (Atkinson et al ., 2005; Persson et al ., 2012; Tian et al ., 2015; Newman et al ., 2016). Such knowledge is useful as a reference for strategic decision‐making in adapting to climate events for the benefit of crop growers.…”