Model projected heat extremes and air pollution in the eastern Mediterranean and Middle East in the twenty-first century

Abstract

The eastern Mediterranean and Middle East, a region with diverse socioeconomic and cultural identities, is exposed to strong climatic gradients between its temperate north and arid south. Model projections of the twenty-first century indicate increasing hot weather extremes and decreasing rainfall. We present model results, which suggest that across the Balkan Peninsula and Turkey climate change is particularly rapid, and especially summer temperatures are expected to increase strongly. Temperature rise can be amplified by the depletion of soil moisture, which limits evaporative cooling, prompted by the waning of large-scale weather systems that generate rain. Very hot summers that occurred only rarely in the recent past are projected to become common by the middle and the end of the century. Throughout the region, the annual number of heat wave days may increase drastically. Furthermore, conditions in the region are conducive for photochemical air pollution. Our model projections suggest strongly increasing ozone formation, a confounding health risk factor particularly in urban areas. This adds to the high concentrations of aerosol particles from natural (desert dust) and anthropogenic sources. The heat extremes may have strong impacts, especially in the Middle East where environmental stresses are plentiful.

The climate of the Mediterranean region: research progress and climate change impacts

“…Through a modeling study of climate and air quality changes, Lelieveld et al (2014) show that future heat extremes may have strong impacts, especially in the Middle East, where environmental stresses are largest. Further, their model results suggest strongly increasing ozone formation, which, associated with high concentrations of particulates by desert dust and anthropogenic aerosols, is expected to considerably reduce air quality during heat wave conditions.…”

Origin and variability in volatile organic compounds observed at an Eastern Mediterranean background site (Cyprus)

“…As a consequence, particulate or ozone concentrations are generally higher in the Mediterranean region than in most continental European regions especially during summertime (Doche et al, 2014;Menut et al, 2015;Nabat et al, 2013;Safieddine et al, 2014) since climatic conditions favor the development of photochemical processes (Fountoukis et al, 2011). The Mediterranean region is also considered as a prominent climate change "hot spot", considering interactions between climate and air quality, and is expected to undergo marked warming and drying in the 21st century (Giorgi, 2006;Kopf, 2010;Lelieveld et al, 2014). However, air pollution in this region remains difficult to assess and characterize mostly because of a lack of atmospheric measurements.…”

Heat wave characteristics in the eastern Mediterranean and Middle East using extreme value theory

“…Further, implications of climate warming for hot extremes have been investigated globally (Tebaldi 2007, Orlowsky 2011, Hansen et al 2012, IPCC 2012 and regionally, e.g. in Europe (Christen sen & Christensen 2007, Fischer & Schär 2010 and in the Mediterranean and the Middle East (Diffenbaugh et al 2007, Gao & Giorgi 2008, Evans 2009, Önol & Semazzi 2009, Hertig et al 2010, Lelieveld et al 2013.…”