Model Representation & Decision-Making in an Ever-Changing World: The Role of Stochastic Process Models of Transportation Systems

Abstract

We review and advance the state-of-the-art in the modelling of transportation systems as a stochastic process. The conceptual and theoretical basis of the approach is explained in detail. A variety of examples are given to motivate its use in the field. While the examples cover a wide range of modelling philosophies, in order to provide focus they are restricted to modelling a special class of problems involving driver route choice in networks. Our overall objective is to establish the applicability of this approach as a unifying framework for modelling approaches involving dynamic and stochastic elements, developing further the ideas put forward in Cantarella & Cascetta (1995). Directions for further development and research are identified.

Exploration of day-to-day route choice models by a virtual experiment

“…There has been a substantial stream of development of day-to-day dynamic models to look into the variation of traffic flows from epoch to epoch (Cascetta, 1989;Watling and Cantarella, 2015). It is believed that travelers'…”

A general stochastic process for day-to-day dynamic traffic assignment: Formulation, asymptotic behaviour, and stability analysis

“…DPs also allow transitions to be examined especially when some shock or designed change occurs He & Liu, 2012. A recent review and synthesis of DP models in discrete and continuous time may be found in Cantarella & Watling 2015; in this paper no comparison is carried out with DPs in continuous time and/or based on Wardrop approach to route choice behaviour for a recent paper see Guo et al, 2015, since results obtained with these models can hardly transferred to the kind of models discussed in this paper.…”

Modelling road traffic assignment as a day-to-day dynamic, deterministic process: a unified approach to discrete- and continuous-time models

“…In a companion paper, we have provided a similar treatment of stochastic process models, which emerge from a quite different theoretical backdrop (Watling & Cantarella, 2013a). Together, these papers extend and update the treatment of these two kinds of modelling approach as described in the unifying framework of Cantarella & Cascetta (1995).…”

“…In the present paper we consider the modelling of road transport systems as a deterministic process (stochastic process models are widely discussed in Watling & Cantarella, 2013a, 2013b. The main contribution is to present a unified treatment of discrete-time and continuous-time approaches, these two classes of approach having been developed in two parallel streams of research which have had little connection made between them.…”