Model specification

Petris, Giovanni De; Petrone, Sonia; Campagnoli, Patrizia

doi:10.1007/b135794_3

Cited by 4 publications

(1 citation statement)

References 0 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…where r is the intrinsic productivity state in years t and t +1, δ is the drift and is the stochastic annual productivity forcing with distribution that governs the variability in productivity from year to year. We formulate the non-stationary Graham–Schaefer as a hierarchical Bayesian model 20 21 to reconstruct characteristic productivity variation for all depleted stocks and estimate the key parameter for each stock, which quantitatively characterizes the response to biologically and environmentally driven productivity forcing. We fit the Bayesian model via Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) using the software Stan 22 .…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Extended fisheries recovery timelines in a changing environment

et al. 2017

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Rebuilding depleted fish stocks is an international policy goal and a 2020 Aichi target under the Convention on Biological Diversity. However, stock productivity may shift with future climate change, with unknown consequences for sustainable harvesting, biomass targets and recovery timelines. Here we develop a stochastic modelling framework to characterize variability in the intrinsic productivity parameter (r) and carrying capacity (K) for 276 global fish stocks worldwide. We use models of dynamic stock productivity fitted via Bayesian inference to forecast rebuilding timelines for depleted stocks. In scenarios without fishing, recovery probabilities are reduced by 19%, on average, relative to models assuming static productivity. Fishing at 90% of the maximum sustainable rate depresses recovery probabilities by 42%, on average, relative to static models. This work reveals how a changing environmental context can delay the rebuilding of depleted fish stocks, and provides a framework to account for the potential impacts of environmental change on the productivity of wildlife populations more broadly.

show abstract

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Extended fisheries recovery timelines in a changing environment

et al. 2017

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

Ice Lenses Beneath Hummocks in a Temperate Rich Fen

Jabłońska

2022

Wetlands

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

The study documents a process of ice lenses persistence under hummocks during spring snowmelt in a rich fen in Poland. Air temperature, as well as the temperature under vascular plant litter, Hamatocaulis vernicosus mat, Tomentypnum nitens hummocks and Sphagnum teres hummocks, was measured from December to March using temperature data loggers. The Capital Asset Pricing Model was adapted to analyse relationships between air temperature and temperature under litter and mosses. Sphagnum teres best insulated the temperature of the upper peat layer from changing air temperatures and maintained frozen peat under its hummocks the longest (for about a month after the frost had stopped). Tomentypnum nitens insulated similarly effectively in winter, also maintaining the ice lenses under its hummocks, but less effectively in warmer spring, which may be due to differences in hummock structure between the two species. The observed phenomenon may soon disappear due to global warming, which may affect the fen functioning.

show abstract