Model uncertainty, political contestation, and public trust in science: Evidence from the COVID-19 pandemic

Abstract

While scientific uncertainty always invites the risk of politicization and raises questions of how to communicate about science, this risk is magnified for COVID-19. The limited data and accelerated research timelines mean some prominent models or findings inevitably will be overturned or retracted. In this research, we examine the attitudes of more than 6,000 Americans across five different survey experiments to understand how the cue giver and cue given about scientific uncertainty regarding COVID-19 affect public trust in science and support for science-based policy. Criticism from Democratic political elites undermines trust more than criticism from Republicans. Emphasizing uncertainty in projections can erode public trust in some contexts. Downplaying uncertainty can raise support in the short-term but reversals in projections may temper these effects or even reduce scientific trust. Careful and effective science communication is critical to maintaining public support for science-based policies as the scientific consensus shifts over time.

Lack of trust and social media echo chambers predict COVID-19 vaccine hesitancy

“…Trust is crucial to ensure compliance to public health measures (4). But governments, experts and the media have needed to communicate uncertain and even reversals in advice, eroding public trust (5). COVID-19 is not only a pandemic, but an ‘infodemic’ of complex and dynamic information – both factual and incorrect.…”

“…We test three hypotheses. First, we contend that multiple facets of trust are crucial in understanding vaccine uptake (4, 5, 9). We hypothesise that trust in government and a positive view of the government’s handling of the crisis will predict higher vaccine willingness, while vaccine distrust and mistrust and distrust of government predicts greater hesitancy (see SI for measures, full analyses).…”

Trust and Compliance with COVID-19 Preventive Behaviors during the Pandemic

“…The term trust is defined as “the firm belief in the reliability, truth, ability or strength of someone or something.” The relationship between COVID-19 and trust deserves special attention for two major reasons. First, even seven months into the outbreak of the COVID - 19 pandemic, we are still facing high levels of uncertainty regarding the nature of the disease, its lethality, spread and the best ways to reduce or prevent its impact [ 1 ]. As a result, different countries have responded in quite different ways to the same pandemic, and no gold standards have been established [ 2 , 3 , 4 ].…”

Facing the pandemic with trust in science

“…Trust in science generates other epistemic benefits: It makes people less susceptible to misinformation (Roozenbeek et al, 2020) and influences the formation of opinion-networks (Maher, MacCarron, & Quayle, 2020). It is a relatively stable trait (Agley, 2020), and is resistant to erosion from ideological opponents (Kreps & Kriner, 2020). In that case, these findings may be helpful for policy-based interventions as they suggest that trust in science could serve as a 'boost' for behavioral change.…”