Modèle conceptuel pour prédire la diffusion intra-troupeau de la péripneumonie contagieuse bovine

Lesnoff, Matthieu; Thiaucourt, François; Bonnet, Pascal; Bicout, Dominique; Balenghien, Thomas; Abdicho, Sintayehu; Laval, Géraud; Lancelot, Renaud

doi:10.19182/remvt.9811

Cited by 3 publications

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“…The model (see for details [15,18]) divided the herd into 4 infection-states ( Although the involvement of CBPP chronic carriers in the long-term persistence of the disease in the cattle population has been suggested by several authors [20,21,28], the carriers' infectiousness (which remains unproven) and their role during the withinherd outbreak are negligible compared to clinical cases [33]. Therefore they were not represented in the model.…”

Section: Within-herd Cbpp-spread Simulationmentioning

confidence: 99%

A mathematical model of contagious bovine pleuropneumonia (CBPP) within-herd outbreaks for economic evaluation of local control strategies: an illustration from a mixed crop-livestock system in Ethiopian highlands

et al. 2004

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-Contagious bovine pleuropneumonia (CBPP) is a respiratory disease of cattle caused by Mycoplasma mycoides subsp. mycoides small colony. CBPP is a major cause for concern in African countries (because of mortality, animal-production losses and cost of control). We present a simulation framework to compare economic efficiency of local (i.e., at the herd level) CBPP-control strategies (vaccination and antibiotic treatments). This framework was illustrated with data from an Ethiopian highlands cattle-smallholder system (Boji district, West Wellega Zone), where veterinary services recently reported CBPP cases and a research programme was set up to estimate the epidemiological parameters of infection spread. With the data considered (low CBPP virulence), antibiotics were the most efficient strategy. A sensitivity analysis should be carried out taking into account all uncertain parameters regarding economic values of costs and benefits, expected effectiveness of animal health interventions, animal production yields and epidemiological patterns of the disease. Our framework can help for decision making in CBPP management and health policy design at herd level. Moreover, any threshold analyses (e.g., value of vaccine cost for a benefit being nil) could easily be implemented. Mycoplasma mycoides subsp. mycoides small colony.La PPCB est un problème sanitaire majeur dans les pays africains (en raison de la mortalité, des pertes de production et du coût de contrôle). Nous présentons un modèle de simulation permettant de comparer l'efficience économique de stratégies de contrôle (vaccination et traitement antibiotique) au niveau du troupeau. Ce modèle a été illustré avec des données provenant d'un système mixte d'agriculture-élevage dans les hauts plateaux éthiopiens (district de Boji, zone du West Wellega), où des cas de PPCB ont été rapportés par les services vétérinaires et où un programme de recherche a été mis en oeuvre pour estimer les paramètres épidémiologiques de la PPCB. Avec les données considérées (faible virulence de la PPCB), les traitements antibiotiques ont été la stratégie la plus efficiente. Une analyse de sensibilité devra être mise en oeuvre pour prendre en compte l'incertitude des valeurs des paramètres économiques, de production animale et épidémiologiques. Notre modèle de simulation peut aider pour l'aide à la décision dans la gestion de la PPCB et la planification de programmes sanitaires. Le modèle permet aussi d'estimer les limites acceptables du coût des stratégies de contrôle au niveau du troupeau (par exemple le coût du vaccin engendrant un bénéfice nul).péripneumonie contagieuse bovine / stratégies de contrôle / économie / modèle de Markov / Ethiopie

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Section: Within-herd Cbpp-spread Simulationmentioning

confidence: 99%

A mathematical model of contagious bovine pleuropneumonia (CBPP) within-herd outbreaks for economic evaluation of local control strategies: an illustration from a mixed crop-livestock system in Ethiopian highlands

et al. 2004

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“…Parameter 3 -Incidence between animals and, when relevant, between animals and humans Reported transmission rates range from 0.07 to 0.13 (Mariner et al, 2006) and 0.03 per week (Lesnoff et al, 2002).…”

Section: Speed Of Transmissionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Reported transmission rates range from 0.07 to 0.13 (Mariner et al., ) and 0.03 per week (Lesnoff et al., ).…”

Section: Assessmentmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The clinical stage of the disease can itself be divided in two stages, the acute and the chronic stage. This was the basis for the development of compartment models (Lesnoff et al, 2002).…”

Section: Mortalitymentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Mmm can be isolated from these lesions for up to 12 months (Windsor and Masiga, 1977a). The real infectious risk presented by these animals is unknown, but is certainly limited (in the Lesnoff model, a relative risk of less than 1/50 compared to animals in the acute stage was considered) (Lesnoff et al, 2002(Lesnoff et al, , 2004a.…”

Section: Mortalitymentioning

confidence: 99%

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Assessment of listing and categorisation of animal diseases within the framework of the Animal Health Law (Regulation (EU) No 2016/429): contagious bovine pleuropneumonia

More¹,

Bøtner²,

Butterworth

et al. 2017

EFS2

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Contagious bovine pleuropneumonia has been assessed according to the criteria of the Animal Health Law (AHL), in particular criteria of Article 7 on disease profile and impacts, Article 5 on the eligibility of contagious bovine pleuropneumonia to be listed, Article 9 for the categorisation of contagious bovine pleuropneumonia according to disease prevention and control rules as in Annex IV and Article 8 on the list of animal species related to contagious bovine pleuropneumonia. The assessment has been performed following a methodology composed of information collection and compilation, expert judgement on each criterion at individual and, if no consensus was reached before, also at collective level. The output is composed of the categorical answer, and for the questions where no consensus was reached, the different supporting views are reported. Details on the methodology used for this assessment are explained in a separate opinion. According to the assessment performed, contagious bovine pleuropneumonia can be considered eligible to be listed for Union intervention as laid down in Article 5(3) of the AHL. The disease would comply with the criteria as in Sections 4 and 5 of Annex IV of the AHL, for the application of the disease prevention and control rules referred to in points (d) and (e) of Article 9(1). The animal species to be listed for contagious bovine pleuropneumonia according to Article 8(3) criteria are species of the family Bovidae as susceptible.

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A metapopulation model for the spread and persistence of contagious bovine pleuropneumonia (CBPP) in African sedentary mixed crop–livestock systems

Ezanno¹,

Lesnoff²

2009

Journal of Theoretical Biology

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Cite this article as: Pauline Ezanno and Matthieu Lesnoff, A metapopulation model for the spread and persistence of contagious bovine pleuropneumonia (CBPP) in african sedentary mixed crop-livestock systems, Journal of Theoretical Biology (2008Biology ( ), doi:10.1016Biology ( /j.jtbi.2008 This is a PDF file of an unedited manuscript that has been accepted for publication. As a service to our customers we are providing this early version of the manuscript. The manuscript will undergo copyediting, typesetting, and review of the resulting galley proof before it is published in its final citable form. Please note that during the production process errors may be discovered which could affect the content, and all legal disclaimers that apply to the journal pertain. A sensitivity analysis is performed to evaluate the influence on model outputs of these 27 parameters and of pathogen virulence, between-herd movement rate, network degree, 28 and calves recruitment. Model outputs are the probability that individual-and group-29 level reproductive numbers R 0 and R * are above one, the metapopulation infection 30 duration, the probability of CBPP endemicity (when CBPP persists over five years), and 31 the epidemic size in infected herds and infected animals. The most influential 32 parameters are related to chronic carriers (infectiousness and chronic period), pathogen 33 virulence, and recruitment rate. When assuming no CBPP re-introduction in the region, 34 endemicity is only probable if chronic carriers are assumed infectious for at least one 35 year and to shed the pathogen in not too low an amount. It becomes highly probable 36 when assuming high pathogen virulence and high recruitment rate. 37 38

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Modèle conceptuel pour prédire la diffusion intra-troupeau de la péripneumonie contagieuse bovine

Cited by 3 publications

References 9 publications

A mathematical model of contagious bovine pleuropneumonia (CBPP) within-herd outbreaks for economic evaluation of local control strategies: an illustration from a mixed crop-livestock system in Ethiopian highlands

A mathematical model of contagious bovine pleuropneumonia (CBPP) within-herd outbreaks for economic evaluation of local control strategies: an illustration from a mixed crop-livestock system in Ethiopian highlands

Assessment of listing and categorisation of animal diseases within the framework of the Animal Health Law (Regulation (EU) No 2016/429): contagious bovine pleuropneumonia

A metapopulation model for the spread and persistence of contagious bovine pleuropneumonia (CBPP) in African sedentary mixed crop–livestock systems

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