Modeling and descriptive analysis of dengue cases in Palu City, Indonesia

Puspita, Juni Wijayanti; Farida, Farida; Fakhruddin, Muhammad; Nuraini, Nuning; Fauzi, Rifky; Indratno, Sapto Wahyu; Soewono, Edy

doi:10.1016/j.physa.2023.129019

Cited by 6 publications

(2 citation statements)

References 24 publications

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“…We iteratively refine the model parameters by optimizing this objective function until a satisfactory fit to the data is achieved. Additionally, to assess the uncertainty inherent in our parameter estimates and provide a comprehensive distribution of parameter values, we employ the bootstrap resampling residual approach [ 40 , 41 ] across all estimation results for four distinct countries. This approach allows us to generate multiple parameter sets by resampling residuals, providing insight into the variability and robustness of our model across different datasets and scenarios.…”

Section: Mathematical Model Construction and Parameter Estimationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Improving tuberculosis control: assessing the value of medical masks and case detection—a multi-country study with cost-effectiveness analysis

Aldila,

Fardian,

Chukwu

et al. 2024

R. Soc. Open Sci.

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Tuberculosis (TB) remains a significant global health concern, necessitating effective control strategies. This article presents a mathematical model to evaluate the comparative effectiveness of medical mask usage and case detection in TB control. The model is constructed as a system of ordinary differential equations and incorporates crucial aspects of TB dynamics, including slow–fast progression, medical mask use, case detection, treatment interventions and differentiation between symptomatic and asymptomatic cases. A key objective of TB control is to ensure that the reproduction number, R c , remains below unity to achieve TB elimination or persistence if R c exceeds 1. Our mathematical analysis reveals the presence of a transcritical bifurcation when the R c = 1 signifies a critical juncture in TB control strategies. These results confirm that the effectiveness of case detection in diminishing the endemic population of symptomatic individuals within a TB-endemic equilibrium depends on exceeding a critical threshold value. Furthermore, our model is calibrated using TB yearly case incidence data per 100 000 population from Indonesia, India, Lesotho and Angola. We employed the bootstrap resampling residual approach to assess the uncertainty inherent in our parameter estimates which provides a comprehensive distribution of the parameter values. Despite a declining trend in new incidence, these four countries exhibit a reproduction number greater than 1, indicating persistent TB cases in the presence of ongoing TB control programmes. We employ the partial rank correlation coefficient in conjunction with the Latin hypercube sampling method to conduct a global sensitivity analysis of the R c parameter for each fitted parameter in every country. We find that the medical mask use is more sensitive to reduce R c compared with the case detection implementation. To further gain insight into the necessary control strategy, we formulated an optimal control and studied the cost-effectiveness analysis of our model to investigate the impact of case detection and medical mask use as control measures in TB spread. Cost-effectiveness analysis demonstrates that combining these interventions emerges as the most cost-effective strategy for TB control. Our findings highlight the critical importance of medical masks and their efficacy coupled with case detection in shaping TB control dynamics, elucidating the primary parameter of concern for managing the control reproduction number. We envisage our findings to have implications and be vital for TB control if implemented by policymakers and healthcare practitioners involved in TB control efforts.

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Section: Mathematical Model Construction and Parameter Estimationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Improving tuberculosis control: assessing the value of medical masks and case detection—a multi-country study with cost-effectiveness analysis

Aldila,

Fardian,

Chukwu

et al. 2024

R. Soc. Open Sci.

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“…Environmental degradation continues to be a prevalent issue in South Sulawesi. Several sectors and regions within the area have been identified to encounter environmental problems, such as river water pollution due to domestic waste (Amrul & Makkau, 2023), communicable diseases (Puspita, et al, 2023), and air pollution (Surya, et al, 2020). Additionally, natural balance supporters are also suffering from damage due to mining activities (Adidharma & Takarina, 2023), and mangrove forests, which serve as coastal ecosystem stabilizers, have also suffered damage (Hidayat & Dessy, 2021).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Maudu Lompoa Culture in Shaping The Character of Loving The Environment

Hendra,

Pye,

Mahat

et al. 2023

El Harakah

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Environmental damage is a recurring issue in South Sulawesi. The community remains insufficiently aware of the importance of environmental conservation. One of the contributing factors is the lack of a character that values and loves the environment within the community. It is necessary to integrate local culture into environmental issues. Society should recognize that integrating knowledge and personal norms inherited from their ancestors can shape an environmentally friendly character. This research examines how Maudu Lompoa culture shapes an environmentally aware character among the followers. The research findings reveal that the formation of an environmentally aware character in Maudu Lompoa is rooted in the love and devotion to the Prophet Muhammad (peace be upon him) as a holy figure. Maudu Lompoa is conducted with great reverence at each stage, emphasizing cleanliness and the sanctity of the celebration process. The formation of an environmentally aware character stems from behavioral patterns and ancestral messages, which are embodied in preparing celebration materials, food, and event venues. This study could shape the community's understanding of environmental preservation and inspire a lifelong love of the environment ingrained in their values. Kerusakan lingkungan di Sulawesi Selatan masih sering terjadi. Masyarakat masih kurang menyadari pentingnya menjaga lingkungan. Kurangnya karakter cinta lingkungan dalam diri masyarakat menjadi salah salah satu penyebabnya. Diperlukan integrasi budaya lokal dalam permasalahan lingkungan. Masyarakat harus menyadari bahwa integrasi pengetahuan dan norma-norma pribadi dari leluhur sangat penting untuk membentuk karakter cinta lingkungan. Penelitian ini mengkaji tentang budaya lokal Maudu Lompoa dengan fokus pada pelaksanaannya yang membentuk karakter cinta lingkungan para pengikutnya. Temuan penelitian mengungkapkan bahwa pembentukan karakter cinta lingkungan pada pelaksanaan Maudu Lompoa dibentuk oleh landasan kecintaan kepada Nabi Muhammad SAW sebagai manusia suci. Pelaksanaan Maudu Lompoa dilaksanakan dengan penuh khidmat dari setiap tahapannya dengan memperhatikan kebersihan dan kesucian prosesi perayaan. Pembentukan karakter cinta lingkungan terbentuk dari bentuk perilaku dan pesan-pesan leluhur, yang tetuang dalam perilaku menyiapkan bahan perayaan, makanan, dan tempat pelaksanaan. Penelitian ini dapat memberikan implikasi pada pengetahuan masyarakat dalam menjaga lingkungan sekitarnya, membentuk karakter cinta lingkungan yang akan bertahan lama karena berasal dari kepercayaan yang dianutnya

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