Modeling ash fall distribution from a Yellowstone supereruption

Mastin, Larry G.; Eaton, Alexa R. Van; Lowenstern, Jacob B.

doi:10.1002/2014gc005469

Cited by 54 publications

(87 citation statements)

References 65 publications

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“…We suggest that, even for low Richardson number and low MFR, cloud downwind velocity of the Cordón Caulle eruption was characterized by an important gravitational component at least during the first few days (4–6 June), and the crosswind spreading (i.e., cloud width) can be described by a linear combination of both gravitational spreading and turbulent diffusion, with diffusion coefficients that are more consistent with observations (i.e., ~9000 m 2 s −1 ) (Figures and ). This suggests that gravitational spreading, already shown to be crucial to cloud development of strong plumes (e.g., Mount St. Helens 1980 [ Bonadonna and Phillips , ], Pinatubo 1991 [ Costa et al ., ], and plinian supereruption at Yellowstone volcano [ Mastin et al ., ]), seems to describe also medial‐to‐distal spreading (100–1000 km) of plumes characterized by relatively low MFR (10 6 –10 7 kg s −1 ).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…They are characterized by an initial climactic phase associated with both convective plumes and pyroclastic density currents (PDCs) followed by lava effusion and monthlong low‐intensity, ash‐laden plumes [ Castro et al ., ]. The 2011 eruption of Cordón Caulle volcano also provides the unique opportunity to explore (i) the interaction between plume dynamics and atmospheric wind and (ii) the complex interplay among cloud gravitational spreading, atmospheric diffusion, and wind advection of small‐moderate eruptions, which have recently been topics of lively debates within the international community [e.g., Degruyter and Bonadonna , , ; Devenish , ; Woodhouse et al ., ; Costa et al ., ; Carazzo et al ., ; Mastin et al ., ]. A detailed characterization of the stratigraphy and deposit features is presented by Pistolesi et al .…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Dynamics of wind‐affected volcanic plumes: The example of the 2011 Cordón Caulle eruption, Chile

et al. 2015

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The 2011 Cordón Caulle eruption represents an ideal case study for the characterization of long-lasting plumes that are strongly affected by wind. The climactic phase lasted for about 1 day and was classified as subplinian with plumes between~9 and 12 km above the vent and mass flow rate (MFR) on the order of~10 7 kg s À1. Eruption intensity fluctuated during the first 11 days with MFR values between 10 6 and 10 7 kg s À1. This activity was followed by several months of low-intensity plumes with MFR < 10 6 kg s À1 .Plume dynamics and rise were strongly affected by wind during the whole eruption with negligible upwind spreading and sedimentation. The plumes that developed on 4-6 and 20-22 June can be described as transitional, i.e., plumes showing transitional behavior between strong and weak dynamics, while the wind clearly dominated the rise height on all the other days resulting in the formation of weak plumes. Individual phases of the eruption range between Volcanic Explosivity Indices (VEIs) 3 and 4, while the cumulative deposit related to 4-7 June 2011 is associated with VEIs 4 and 5. Crosswind cloud and deposit dispersal of the first few days are best described by a linear combination of gravitational spreading and turbulent diffusion, with velocities between 1 and 10 m s À1. Downwind cloud velocity for the same days is best described by a linear combination of gravitational spreading and wind advection, with velocities between 17 and 45 m s À1. Results show how gravitational spreading can be significant even for subplinian and small-moderate eruptions strongly advected by wind and with low Richardson number and low MFR.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Dynamics of wind‐affected volcanic plumes: The example of the 2011 Cordón Caulle eruption, Chile

et al. 2015

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“…Large silicic calderas with diameters of several tens of kilometers such as Yellowstone, Toba, Valles, and Long Valley Caldera, are loci of the most explosive eruptions on Earth (Miller and Wark, 2008;Mastin et al, 2014). Some of the largest eruptions result in the evacuation of up to 3000 km 3 of magma (∼7 × 10 15 kg or Magnitude 8.8) roughly equivalent to ∼8000 km 3 of tephra deposits (Self and Blake, 2008).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Resurgent Tobaâ€”field, chronologic, and model constraints on time scales and mechanisms of resurgence at large calderas

et al. 2015

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Highlights• New data reveal for the first time a history of the last ∼33.7 ky of uplift of Samosir.• Minimum uplift rates were high (4.9 cm/year) for the first 11.2 ky but diminished after that to <1 cm/year for the last 22.5 ky.• Numerical modeling suggests that rebound of remnant magma augmented by deep recharge appears to be the most likely driver for uplift.• Detumescence makes a negligible contribution to resurgent uplift.• The volume of the resurgent dome is isostatically compensated by magma • Average rates of uplift at Toba are much lower than currently restless calderas indicating a distinction between resurgence and "restlessness".New data reveal details of the post-caldera history at the Earth's youngest resurgent supervolcano, Toba caldera in Sumatra. Resurgence after the caldera-forming ∼74 ka Youngest Toba Tuff eruption uplifted the caldera floor as a resurgent dome, Samosir Island, capped with 100 m of lake sediments. 14 C age data from the uppermost datable sediments reveal that Samosir Island was submerged beneath lake level (∼900 m a.s.l) at 33 ka. Since then, Samosir experienced 700 m of uplift as a tilted block dipping to the west. 14 C ages and elevations of sediment along a transect of Samosir reveal that minimum uplift rates were ∼4.9 cm/year from ∼33.7 to 22.5 ka, but diminished to ∼0.7 cm/year after 22.5 ka. Thermo-mechanical models informed by these rates reveal that detumescence does not produce the uplift nor the uplift rates estimated for Samosir. However, models calculating the effect of volume change of the magma reservoir within a temperature-dependent viscoelastic host rock reveal that a single pulse of ∼475 km 3 of magma produces a better fit to the uplift data than a constant flux. The cause of resurgent uplift of the caldera floor is rebound of remnant magma as the system re-established magmastatic and isostatic equilibrium after the caldera collapse. Previous assertions that the caldera floor was apparently at 400 m a.s.l or lower requires that uplift must have initiated between sometime between 33.7 and 74 ka at a minimum average uplift rate of ∼1.1 cm/year. The change in uplift rate from pre-33.7 ka to immediately post-33.7 ka suggests a role for deep recharge augmenting rebound. Average minimum rates of de Silva et al.Resurgence at Toba caldera, Sumatra resurgent uplift at Toba are at least an order of magnitude slower than net rates of "restlessness" at currently active calderas. This connotes a distinction between resurgence and "restlessness" controlled by different processes, scales of process, and controlling variables.

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“…As larger particles are removed by deposition and air is entrained, the plume density decreases and momentum reduces such that, at a certain distance, atmospheric turbulence and wind advection become the dominant atmospheric transport mechanisms (Baines and Sparks, 2005). Neglecting the gravitational spreading of the umbrella cloud in tephra dispersal simulations could misrepresent the interaction of the volcanic ash cloud and the atmospheric wind field for highintensity eruptions and for proximal deposition of tephra (Mastin et al, 2014). To account for the gravity-driven transport, NMMB-MONARCH-ASH is coupled with the model of Costa et al (2013), describing cloud spreading as a gravity current.…”

Section: Wet Aggregation Schemementioning

confidence: 99%

Volcanic ash modeling with the online NMMB-MONARCH-ASH v1.0 model: model description, case simulation, and evaluation

et al. 2017

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Abstract. Traditionally, tephra transport and dispersal models have evolved decoupled (offline) from numerical weather prediction models. There is a concern that inconsistencies and shortcomings associated with this coupling strategy might lead to errors in the ash cloud forecast. Despite this concern and the significant progress in improving the accuracy of tephra dispersal models in the aftermath of the 2010 Eyjafjallajökull and 2011 Cordón Caulle eruptions, to date, no operational online dispersal model is available to forecast volcanic ash. Here, we describe and evaluate NMMB-MONARCH-ASH, a new online multi-scale meteorological and transport model that attempts to pioneer the forecast of volcanic aerosols at operational level. The model forecasts volcanic ash cloud trajectories, concentration of ash at relevant flight levels, and the expected deposit thickness for both regional and global configurations. Its online coupling approach improves the current state-of-the-art tephra dispersal models, especially in situations where meteorological conditions are changing rapidly in time, two-way feedbacks are significant, or distal ash cloud dispersal simulations are required. This work presents the model application for the first phases of the 2011 Cordón Caulle and 2001 Mount Etna eruptions. The computational efficiency of NMMB-MONARCH-ASH and its application results compare favorably with other long-range tephra dispersal models, supporting its operational implementation.

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Modeling ash fall distribution from a Yellowstone supereruption

Cited by 54 publications

References 65 publications

Dynamics of wind‐affected volcanic plumes: The example of the 2011 Cordón Caulle eruption, Chile

Dynamics of wind‐affected volcanic plumes: The example of the 2011 Cordón Caulle eruption, Chile

Resurgent Tobaâ€”field, chronologic, and model constraints on time scales and mechanisms of resurgence at large calderas

Volcanic ash modeling with the online NMMB-MONARCH-ASH v1.0 model: model description, case simulation, and evaluation

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