Modeling Building Stock Development

Abstract

It is widely agreed that dynamics of building stocks are relatively poorly known even if it is recognized to be an important research topic. Better understanding of building stock dynamics and future development is crucial, e.g., for sustainable management of the built environment as various analyses require long-term projections of building stock development. Recognizing the uncertainty in relation to long-term modeling, we propose a transparent calculation-based QuantiSTOCK model for modeling building stock development. Our approach not only provides a tangible tool for understanding development when selected assumptions are valid but also, most importantly, allows for studying the sensitivity of results to alternative developments of the key variables. Therefore, this relatively simple modeling approach provides fruitful grounds for understanding the impact of different key variables, which is needed to facilitate meaningful debate on different housing, land use, and environment-related policies. The QuantiSTOCK model may be extended in numerous ways and lays the groundwork for modeling the future developments of building stocks. The presented model may be used in a wide range of analyses ranging from assessing housing demand at the regional level to providing input for defining sustainable pathways towards climate targets. Due to the availability of high-quality data, the Finnish building stock provided a great test arena for the model development.

Socio-economic impacts of large-scale deep energy retrofits in Finnish apartment buildings

“…The input data comes from previous scientific studies, official statistics and from personal interviews with experts. Two major components from previous studies are: 1) dynamic building simulation with multi-objective optimization (Hirvonen et al, 2018) and 2) national building stock modelling (Kurvinen et al, 2021). These are used to analyze the socio-economic impact of national-scale deep energy retrofitting of the Finnish apartment building stock, as shown in Fig.…”

“…Parallel to this, the QuantiStock model (Kurvinen et al, 2021) was used to calculate the distribution of heating systems and the amount of apartment buildings of each age category in the current building stock (in 2020) and in the future building stock (in 2050), as presented in Fig. 1.…”

“…The models and tools used in the study. Models and results from previous studies (Hirvonen et al, 2018(Hirvonen et al, 2018, Hirvonen et al, 2021(Hirvonen et al, 2021, Kurvinen et al, 2021(Kurvinen et al, 2021) were used as input data for the socio-economic impact modelling in this study. landmark years 2050 and 2080.…”

Long-term renovation strategy for 2020-2050: assessment from a low-carbon perspective—case Finland

“…The largest savings will be achieved by investment in new building service technologies and the utilization of renewable energy. Assessments have also been performed by modelling the current building stock, annual number of new buildings, building demolitions and refurbishments [4]. The assessments show that there will be about 70-75% left of the building stock of 2020 in 2050.…”

Technology and Management for Sustainable Buildings and Infrastructures

“…The authors of the published papers used various analysis techniques to obtain the suggested solutions for each topic. Listed by key techniques, various techniques such as Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) [3,12], the Taguchi method [4], machine learning including Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) [5,28], Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) [6,7], regression analysis [13,17,19,25,28], Strength-Weakness-Opportunity-Threat (SWOT) [11], system dynamics [16,26], simulation and modeling [10,19,[22][23][24]29,31,32], Building Information Model (BIM) with schedule [21,24,27], and graph and data analysis after experiments and observations [8,9,14,15,18,20,27,[29][30][31][32] are identified.…”