Modeling cocaine traffickers and counterdrug interdiction forces as a complex adaptive system

Abstract

Counterdrug interdiction efforts designed to seize or disrupt cocaine shipments between South American source zones and US markets remain a core US “supply side” drug policy and national security strategy. However, despite a long history of US-led interdiction efforts in the Western Hemisphere, cocaine movements to the United States through Central America, or “narco-trafficking,” continue to rise. Here, we developed a spatially explicit agent-based model (ABM), called “NarcoLogic,” of narco-trafficker operational decision making in response to interdiction forces to investigate the root causes of interdiction ineffectiveness across space and time. The central premise tested was that spatial proliferation and resiliency of narco-trafficking are not a consequence of ineffective interdiction, but rather part and natural consequence of interdiction itself. Model development relied on multiple theoretical perspectives, empirical studies, media reports, and the authors’ own years of field research in the region. Parameterization and validation used the best available, authoritative data source for illicit cocaine flows. Despite inherently biased, unreliable, and/or incomplete data of a clandestine phenomenon, the model compellingly reproduced the “cat-and-mouse” dynamic between narco-traffickers and interdiction forces others have qualitatively described. The model produced qualitatively accurate and quantitatively realistic spatial and temporal patterns of cocaine trafficking in response to interdiction events. The NarcoLogic model offers a much-needed, evidence-based tool for the robust assessment of different drug policy scenarios, and their likely impact on trafficker behavior and the many collateral damages associated with the militarized war on drugs.

Multiplex networks reveal geographic constraints on illicit wildlife trafficking

“…First, reptile trafficking in Colombia is constrained by physical, social and market elements that provide structure. These geographic constrains are similar to what has been reported for cocaine smuggling in Central America (Magliocca et al 2019), showing some similarities across crimes. As such, demand-supply interactions draw the routes that traffickers use and enable an up-scaling of their activities from regional to national levels.…”

“…In each level of combination, several network metrics are calculated over all possible combinations. Further details on adiabatic projection of multiplex networks can be found in Cardillo et al (2013) and Lotero et al (2016). Recent advances in the analysis of multiplex networks have incorporated tensorial representations of the multiplex (e.g.…”

Corruption and complexity: a scientific framework for the analysis of corruption networks

“…The importance of the application of multidisciplinary and scientific approaches such as complex systems, network theory, and even physics, to the study of criminal activities was presented by the end of last century (Sparrow, 1991). However, it was until the last decades that these types of studies have begun to gain momentum given the great progress in computing and data science (Caldarelli et al, 2018) and their enormous relevance in modern social, economic, and political contexts (D'Orsogna & Perc, 2015;Helbing et al, 2015;Espinal-Enríquez & Larralde, 2015;Marshak, Rombach, Bertozzi & D'Orsogna, 2016;DellaPosta, 2017;Fazekas, Skuhrovec & Wachs, 2017;Morselli & Boivin, 2017;Altshuler & Pentland, 2018;Magliocca et al, 2019;Ouellet, Bouchard & Charette, 2019;Niu, Elsisy, Derzsy, & Szymanski, 2019).…”

The Golden Age of Social Science

“…Drug trafficking is one such example of how an interdisciplinary approach can facilitate problem-solving. Magliocca et al (2019) combined interdisciplinarity and new data to analyze international drug trafficking in Central America (Figure 2). The researchers tested an agentbased model against a database of estimated illicit drug flows from 2000-2014.…”

“…It reproduces two effects known as the "balloon" effect (when trafficking spreads into new areas) and the "cockroach" effect (when trafficking routes become fragmented). (Magliocca et al, 2019).…”