Modeling Complex Systems: Gaining Valid Insights and Avoiding Mathematical Delusions

A Novel Approach to Multihazard Modeling and Simulation

“…Nevertheless, in simulation, absolute results of any model (including PLAN C) must be interpreted cautiously. 72,81 Models, no matter how intricate, simplify factors at many levels. Although the level of detail must be appropriately descriptive, the introduction of extraneous parameters may compound errors.…”

“…Superseding judgment is not the goal; however, models are useful when they can suggest behavior or the effects of alterations in complex systems. 72,82 Although the model was initially applied to Manhattan (…”

“…The intent of PLAN C was to improve upon existing models and provide the integration of an appropriate amount of complexity, factual data, timeliness, and functionality for disaster planning and response 72. Constructing the model with GIS data established appropriate topographical and transportation constraints.…”

Achieving Efficiency in Crowded Emergency Departments: A Research Agenda

“…Given the inherent difficulty and cost of plant expansion, the ability to perform predictive modeling (such as discrete event simulation) may reduce unnecessary expenditures in a cost‐effective manner 61,62 . Modeling enables administrators, clinicians, and researchers to identify potential roadblocks or unanticipated consequences of the proposed changes and allows testing of different scenarios before full implementation.…”

What I Hope To Learn

“…Two of our current senior associate editors will stay in their current roles (Dr. Jeff Kline, who will also assume leadership of our correspondence section, and Dr. Craig Newgard, our senior statistical editor). Our third current senior associate editor, Dr. Roger Lewis, is stepping down after serving the journal both as senior statistical editor 1–5 and senior associate editor 6,7 for many years. His contributions to the growth and development of the journal cannot be counted or adequately described, and I personally thank Roger for all that he has taught me over the years.…”