Modeling Covid-19 Infection Cases and Vaccine in 5 Countries Highly Vaccinations

Abstract

COVID-19 has become the most important and crucial agenda in the world in the last year. COVID-19 has taken many lives around the world and millions of people have been infected. To get rid of this depression caused by COVID-19, many countries have started big campaigns for vaccine production. In this study, data on infection cases and vaccinations conducted in England, Germany, Israel, Russia, and the USA were analyzed from January 3, 2020, to March 3, 2021. We used univariate time series models, where the results are very accurate, rather than epmdicolgical models. In this article we used BATS, TBATS, Holt's linear trend, and ARIMA models to recognize the pattern of spread of covid 19 infection cases. The best models are specified for all countries that have the least error according to MAPE. Findings obtained in this study have been reported extensively in England, Germany, Israel, Russia, and the USA with tables and figures. Using the results and forecasts obtained in this study, England, Germany, Israel, Russia, and the USA can take COVID-19 measures for the future.

Brown'ın doğrusal üstel düzleştirme yöntemiyle COVİD-19 vaka sayılarının tahmin edilmesi: 15, 30 ve 60 günlük tahminlerle büyüme eğilimlerinin karşılaştırılması

“…The aim of this study is to estimate the size of the COVID-19 pandemic for the 15, 30, and 60 days with the ideal forecasting analysis methods by using the daily reported cumulative cases of Germany, Brazil, UAE, UK and Turkey. When the literature was examined, similar studies were found that predicted the COVID-19 epidemic trends [17,[19][20][21][22].…”

Türkiye'de CoronaVac ile Kovid-19 Aşılama Başlangıcında Sars-Cov-2 Yayılımının Matematiksel Modellenmesi

“…A number of studies have used mathematical epidemiological models to analyze the transmission dynamics of COVID -19. SIR is one of the most commonly used mathematical epidemiological models [12]. Covid-19 data from seven countries-China, South Korea, Italy, Spain, Brazil, Germany, and France during the period from February to July 2020 are modeled using machine learning methods, SIR, and a time window SIR (TW-SIR) prediction model [13].…”