Modeling current and future potential distributions of desert locust Schistocerca gregaria (Forskål) under climate change scenarios using MaxEnt

Saha, Arnob; Rahman, Saima; Alam, Shofiul

doi:10.1016/j.japb.2021.05.001

Cited by 34 publications

(26 citation statements)

References 56 publications

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“…The prediction based on multiple GCMs of the CMIP6 model shows that with an increase in radiative forcing and time, the suitable habitat of the solitary desert locust will contract significantly, especially in the 2070s under the SSP585 scenario. This trend of change is similar to the previous research conclusions of Meynard et al (2017) and Saha, Rahman & Alam (2021) . However, our research is slightly different from that of Saha, Rahman & Alam (2021) in terms of the distribution and range of changes in the highly suitable areas of the desert locusts.…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 92%

“…This trend of change is similar to the previous research conclusions of Meynard et al (2017) and Saha, Rahman & Alam (2021) . However, our research is slightly different from that of Saha, Rahman & Alam (2021) in terms of the distribution and range of changes in the highly suitable areas of the desert locusts. This may be related to the differences in species occurrence data and environmental variables used in the two studies.…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 92%

“…CMIP6 models usually have finer resolution and improved dynamic processes and are considered the most advanced climate model simulations to study the effects of past, present, and future climate change ( Eyring et al, 2016 ; O’Neill et al, 2017 ). Given the limited status of the research on future habitat changes of desert locusts output by the CMIP6 model, Saha, Rahman & Alam (2021) used the MaxEnt model and CMIP6 model output to predict the potential global distribution of desert locusts in 2050s and 2070s. However, the study only used one global climate model (BCC-CSM2-MR).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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The potential habitat of desert locusts is contracting: predictions under climate change scenarios

Guan

et al. 2021

PeerJ

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Desert locusts are notorious for their widespread distribution and strong destructive power. Their influence extends from the vast arid and semiarid regions of western Africa to northwestern India. Large-scale locust outbreaks can have devastating consequences for food security, and their social impact may be long-lasting. Climate change has increased the uncertainty of desert locust outbreaks, and predicting suitable habitats for this species under climate change scenarios will help humans deal with the potential threat of locust outbreaks. By comprehensively considering climate, soil, and terrain variables, the maximum entropy (MaxEnt) model was used to predict the potential habitats of solitary desert locusts in the 2050s and 2070s under the four shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP126, SSP245, SSP370, and SSP585) in the CMIP6 model. The modeling results show that the average area under the curve (AUC) and true skill statistic (TSS) reached 0.908 ± 0.002 and 0.701, respectively, indicating that the MaxEnt model performed extremely well and provided outstanding prediction results. The prediction results indicate that climate change will have an impact on the distribution of the potential habitat of solitary desert locusts. With the increase in radiative forcing overtime, the suitable areas for desert locusts will continue to contract, especially in the 2070s under the SSP585 scenario, and the moderately and highly suitable areas will decrease by 0.88 × 106 km2 and 1.55 × 106 km2, respectively. Although the potentially suitable area for desert locusts is contracting, the future threat posed by the desert locust to agricultural production and food security cannot be underestimated, given the combination of maintained breeding areas, frequent extreme weather events, pressure from population growth, and volatile sociopolitical environments. In conclusion, methods such as monitoring and early warning, financial support, regional cooperation, and scientific prevention and control of desert locust plagues should be further implemented.

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Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 92%

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 92%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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The potential habitat of desert locusts is contracting: predictions under climate change scenarios

Guan

et al. 2021

PeerJ

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“…Recently, two articles concerning ecomodelling of the famous desert locust (Schistocerca gregaria (Forsk.) were published [73,74].…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Handsome Cross Grasshopper Oedaleus decorus (Germar, 1825) (Orthoptera: Acrididae) as a Neglected Pest in the South-Eastern Part of West Siberian Plain

Popova

Baturina

Молодцов

et al. 2022

Insects

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Oedaleus decorus is a widely distributed acridid over the Eurasian semi-arid territories, from the Atlantic coast to the Pacific coast. In many semi-arid territories, O. decorus was and is the most important pest, but in the south-eastern part of West Siberian Plain, it was not considered a pest until the 1960s. We compared two sets of data on the acridid distribution in the region: before 1960 and from 1961 until 2021. Until the 1960s, the species occurred mainly in the southern steppes. Since the 1960s, its distribution changed significantly. Nowadays, it occupies almost all local steppes and the southern part of the forest-steppes and can be also found on the eastern side of the Ob River. These shifts may be explained by both climatic changes and changes in human activities. During upsurges the densities of O. decorus were often more than one to two adults per square meter. It is often abundant in the same habitats and in the same periods as the Italian locust (Calliptamus italicus)—one of the most important acridid pests. This means during joint outbreaks these two species can simultaneously damage almost all spectrum of plants.

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“…In the climate prediction experiment, the shared socioeconomic paths (SSPs) and representative concentration paths (RCP) were considered, and two scenarios SSP 2-RCP 4.5 (SSP 245) and SSP 5-RCP 8.5 (SSP 585) were selected for simulation. SSP 245 is the updated scenario of RCP 4.5, which uses a moderate development path, represents an intermediate level of greenhouse gas emissions and a nominal 4.5 Wm −2 radioactive forcing level by 2100 [35]; while, SSP 585 is the updated scenario of RCP 8.5, which uses the development path dominated by fossil fuels, represents a high level of greenhouse gas emissions and a nominal 8.5 Wm −2 radioactive forcing level by 2100 [36]. Additionally, soil factors have also been shown to be important factors affecting species distribution [37].…”

Section: Variablesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Predicting the Potential Distribution of Hylomecon japonica in China under Current and Future Climate Change Based on Maxent Model

Cao

Zhang

et al. 2021

Sustainability

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Hylomecon japonica is considered a natural medicinal plant with anti-inflammatory, anticancer and antibacterial activity. The assessment of climate change impact on its habitat suitability is important for the wild cultivation and standardized planting of H. japonica. In this study, the maximum entropy model (Maxent) and geographic information system (ArcGIS) were applied to predict the current and future distribution of H. japonica species, and the contributions of variables were evaluated by using the jackknife test. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) value confirmed the accuracy of the model prediction based on 102 occurrence records. The predicted potential distributions of H. japonica were mainly concentrated in Jilin, Liaoning, Shaanxi, Chongqing, Henan, Heilongjiang and other provinces (adaptability index > 0.6). The jackknife experiment showed that the precipitation of driest month (40.5%), mean annual temperature (12.4%), the precipitation of wettest quarter (11.6%) and the subclass of soil (9.7%) were the most important factors affecting the potential distribution of H. japonica. In the future, only under the shared socioeconomic Pathway 245 (SSP 245) scenario model in 2061–2080, the suitable habitat area for H. japonica is expected to show a significant upward trend. The area under other scenarios may not increase or decrease significantly.

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Modeling current and future potential distributions of desert locust Schistocerca gregaria (Forskål) under climate change scenarios using MaxEnt

Cited by 34 publications

References 56 publications

The potential habitat of desert locusts is contracting: predictions under climate change scenarios

The potential habitat of desert locusts is contracting: predictions under climate change scenarios

The Handsome Cross Grasshopper Oedaleus decorus (Germar, 1825) (Orthoptera: Acrididae) as a Neglected Pest in the South-Eastern Part of West Siberian Plain

Predicting the Potential Distribution of Hylomecon japonica in China under Current and Future Climate Change Based on Maxent Model

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