Modeling dengue data from Semarang, Indonesia

Götz, Thomas; Altmeier, Nicole; Böck, Wolfgang; Rockenfeller, Robert; Sutimin, Sutimin; Wijaya, Karunia Putra

doi:10.1016/j.ecocom.2016.12.010

Cited by 26 publications

(31 citation statements)

References 3 publications

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“…The basic premise commonly used in construction of a mathematical model for infectious disease is division of the population into some different classes [2], [14]. The susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) type model is a simple model for some disease transmission, become the most generally used framework for epidemiology.…”

Section: Mathematical Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…There are some unobserved parameters in the model, such as β and δ. Therefore, we propose a reduction of host-vector model by using the coexistence equilibrium of mosquitoes [14]. The mosquitoes dynamic is faster compared to the host dynamic as the impact of many mechanisms.…”

Section: Mathematical Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Dengue outbreaks can be found in more than 100 countries in Asia, Africa, America, and Pacific. Approximately 50-100 million dengue cases are recorded every year and about two-thirds of the world's population stays in urban and semi-urban region that infested with dengue vectors [3], [14]. Its quick global spread in the last decades is unprecedented and worrisome.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…An area with high precipitation, favorable temperature, suitable humidity, and strong seasonal variation is an ideal habitat for vector growth [26]. Transmission process and dynamics of dengue transmission have a high sensitivity to meteorological conditions [6], [14], [12]. Warmer temperatures will extend the lifespan of adult mosquitoes and shorten the transition rate for each phase in their life cycle.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Comparison of Dengue Transmission in Lowland and Highland Area: Case Study in Semarang and Malang, Indonesia

Fauzi

Fakhruddin

Nuraini

et al. 2019

Communication in Biomathematical Sciences

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Dengue is a potentially lethal mosquito-borne disease, regarded as the most dangerous disease in the world. It is also a major health issue in tropical and subtropical countries. Environmental characteristics and sociocultural are factors which play a role in the spread of dengue. Different landscape structure such as lowland and highland areas are possible to give different infection rate on dengue transmission. Semarang and Malang are densely populated areas in Java, which are selected to be our study areas. A mathematical model (SIR-UV) is adapted to describe dengue transmission. Spiral dynamic optimization is applied to convert monthly data to weekly in Malang and estimate the infection rate that minimized the deviation between dengue data and simulation. This method produces a good fitting to the data. We compare the pattern of dengue cases from the simulation in both cities. Furthermore, we identify seasonal variations of the cases via Fourier series of the infection rate. We also investigate the correlation between humidity, infection rate, and dengue cases in Semarang and Malang. It reveals that humidity influences infection rate in 1-3 weeks later and the infection rate produces dengue cases in the next four weeks.

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Section: Mathematical Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Mathematical Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Comparison of Dengue Transmission in Lowland and Highland Area: Case Study in Semarang and Malang, Indonesia

Fauzi

Fakhruddin

Nuraini

et al. 2019

Communication in Biomathematical Sciences

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“…Mathematical models are needed to understand the dynamics of epidemic infection [4][5][6][7][8]. At present many models have been proposed to describe the dynamics of HIV/ AIDS infection [9][10][11].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A Fractional-Order Model for HIV Dynamics in a Two-Sex Population

Fatmawati

Shaiful

Utoyo

2018

International Journal of Mathematics and Mathematical Sciences

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Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV) is a virus that attacks or infects cells in the immune system that causes immune decline. Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome (AIDS) is the most severe stage of HIV infection. AIDS is the rapidly spreading and becoming epidemic diseases in the world of almost complete influence across the country. A mathematical model approach of HIV/AIDS dynamic is needed to predict the spread of the diseases in the future. In this paper, we presented a fractionalorder model of the spread of HIV and AIDS diseases which incorporates two-sex population. The fractional derivative order of the model is in the interval (0, 1]. We compute the basic reproduction number and prove the stability of the equilibriums of the model. The sensitivity analysis also is done to determine the important factor controlling the spread. Using the Adamstype predictor-corrector method, we then perform some numerical simulations for variation values of the order of the fractional derivative. Finally, the effects of various antiretroviral therapy (ART) treatments are studied and compared with numerical approach.

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Optimal control and basic reproduction numbers for a compartmental spatial multipatch dengue model

Böck

Jayathunga

2018

Math Methods in App Sciences

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Dengue is a vector-borne viral disease increasing dramatically over the past years due to improvement in human mobility. In this work, a multipatch model for dengue transmission dynamics is studied, and by that, the control efforts to minimize the disease spread by host and vector control are investigated. For this model, the basic reproduction number is derived, giving a choice for parameters in the endemic case. The multipatch system models the host movement within the patches, which coupled via a residence-time budgeting matrix P. Numerical results confirm that the control mechanism embedded in incidence rates of the disease transmission effectively reduces the spread of the disease.

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Modeling dengue data from Semarang, Indonesia

Cited by 26 publications

References 3 publications

Comparison of Dengue Transmission in Lowland and Highland Area: Case Study in Semarang and Malang, Indonesia

Comparison of Dengue Transmission in Lowland and Highland Area: Case Study in Semarang and Malang, Indonesia

A Fractional-Order Model for HIV Dynamics in a Two-Sex Population

Optimal control and basic reproduction numbers for a compartmental spatial multipatch dengue model

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