Modeling desirable futures at local scale by combining the nature futures framework and multi-objective optimization

Abstract

Envisioning positive scenarios that recognize the multiple values of nature is fundamental for designing transformative changes in local socio-ecological systems. This study developed a protocol with three specifications for operationalizing the Nature Futures Framework (NFF) in a landscape scenario analysis using a multi-objective optimization framework composed of: (1) exploring nature-positive futures, (2) seeking alternative pathways for targets satisfying visions of plural values, and (3) screening key direct drivers to achieve the targets. This research conducted a case study of a rural landscape in northeastern Japan. First, 110 strategies of landscape management options were simulated from 2015 to 2100 using a forest landscape model, LANDIS-II. The simulation developed a data frame of four integrated indicators of the NFF values for each year and strategy. Second, nature-positive strategies were screened using the common values. Pareto optimal strategies were then identified to obtain equally good solutions. Finally, the key response options to achieve good nature-positive futures were identified using decision tree analysis. Our protocol identified (1) multiple, but few nature-positive and Pareto optimal strategies that satisfied NFF visions, (2) nature-positive, but not Pareto optimal strategies, and (3) non-nature-positive strategies. In most Pareto optimal strategies, the maximized value perspectives changed over time. Our protocol also identified key response options to achieve three different NFF value perspectives in the case study area: (1) clear or selective cutting in forestry and (2) solar PV installation on abandoned pastureland in agriculture and energy sectors. We discussed the implication for local landscape management, localizing NFF narratives to develop future scenarios and modeling practice of NFF. The protocol does not depend on a specific model and indicator. Thus, our scalable protocol can be applied to scenarios and model practices in any region to support envisioning plausible, feasible, and positive futures, and designing future stakeholder collaboration.

Recipe for a scenario: Moving from vision to actionable pathways towards sustainable futures

“…This study, specifically, presents an activity and set of guiding questions to operationalize the use of NFF in a workshop-setting. Other recent advancements on the applications of the NFF include its coupling with quantitative modelling of landscape scenarios (Haga et al 2023) and methodological guidance to develop illustrative scenarios (Durán et al 2023). Recent studies also indicate how the NFF can be applicable to contexts beyond scenarios, including the assessment of management strategies and policies (e.g., Palacios-Abrantes et al 2022; Kim et al 2023; Stronge et al 2023).…”

Development of Effective Cooperation of Universities, Business and Government in Development of Industrial Symbiosis Zone

“…С. Хасимото, профессор Токийского университета, исследует в своих научных трудах существующие и потенциальные методы сокращения выбросов CO2 за счет промышленного симбиоза в экогородах и как основы для устойчивого развития [Hashimoto et al, 2023].…”