Modeling Dynamic Preferences: A Bayesian Robust Dynamic Latent Ordered Probit Model

Stegmueller, Daniel

doi:10.1093/pan/mpt001

Cited by 39 publications

(25 citation statements)

References 88 publications

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“…Specification (1) allows for a flexible nonparametric random effects distribution via Dirichlet Process priors (for recent political science applications see, e.g., Kyung et al 2011;Stegmueller 2013b). The model is estimated in a Bayesian framework, which also provides an additional robustness check for our multilevel specification (cf.…”

Section: Robustness Checksmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Altruistic Rich? Inequality and Other-Regarding Preferences for Redistribution

Dimick

Rueda

Stegmueller

2017

QJPS

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Why is the difference in redistribution preferences between the rich and the poor high in some places and low in others? In this paper we argue that it has a lot to do with the rich and very little to do with the poor. We contend that while there is a general relative income effect on redistribution preferences, the preferences of the rich are highly dependent on the macro-level of inequality. The reason for this effect is not related to immediate tax and transfer considerations but to other-regarding concerns. Altruism is an important omitted variable in much of the Political Economy literature. While material self-interest is the base of most approaches to redistribution (first affecting preferences and then politics and policy), there is a paucity of research on other-regarding concerns. Using data for the US from 1978 to 2010, we show that the rich in more unequal states are more supportive of redistribution than the rich in more equal states. In making these distinctions between the poor and the rich, the arguments in this paper challenge some influential approaches to the politics of inequality.

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Section: Robustness Checksmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Altruistic Rich? Inequality and Other-Regarding Preferences for Redistribution

Dimick

Rueda

Stegmueller

2017

QJPS

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“…While the idea of pocketbook voting continues to dominate political discourse, there is surprisingly little empirical evidence to support it and the possible reasons that underlie this type of voting remain opaque. The consensus in the economic voting literature has long been that while voters do base their party support on retrospective economic evaluations, it is primarily their assessment of the nation's economic condition that matters, so-called sociotropic voting (see Fiorina 1981;Kiewiet 1979, 1981;Lewis-Beck 1988;Lewis-Beck and Stegmaier 2000, 2013).…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

When the Pound in People’s Pocket Matters: How Changes to Personal Financial Circumstances Affect Party Choice

Tilley

Neundorf

Hobolt

2018

The Journal of Politics

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In this article we revisit the often disregarded pocketbook voting thesis that suggests that people evaluate governments based on the state of their own finances. Using data from the British Household Panel Survey over the last 20 years, we measure changes in personal financial circumstances and show that the pocketbook voting model works. Crucially, we also argue that the ability to attribute responsibility for these changes to the government matters. People respond much more strongly to changes in their own finances that are linked to government spending, such as welfare transfers, than to similar changes that are less clearly the responsibility of elected officials, such as lower personal earnings. We conclude that pocketbook voting is a real phenomenon, but that more attention should be paid to how people assign credit and blame for changes in their own economic circumstances. In order to ascertain whether the incumbents have performed poorly or well, citizens need only calculate the changes in their own welfare.

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“…The form of the likelihood is given in the supplementary materials. The latent autoregression model for equally spaced measurements on a univariate ordinal response can be estimated using maximum simulated likelihood (Pudney, 2008) or Bayesian methods (Stegmueller, 2013). We use Bayesian estimation via MCMC, extending Stegmueller's approach to handle unequally spaced multivariate repeated measures.…”

Section: Estimationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Random Effects Dynamic Panel Models for Unequally Spaced Multivariate Categorical Repeated Measures: An Application to Child–Parent Exchanges of Support

Steele

Grundy

2021

Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series C: Applied Statistics

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Exchanges of practical or financial help between people living in different households are a major component of intergenerational exchanges within families and an increasingly important source of support for individuals in need. Using longitudinal data, bivariate dynamic panel models can be applied to study the effects of changes in individual circumstances on help given to and received from non-coresident parents and the reciprocity of exchanges. However, the use of a rotating module for collection of data on exchanges leads to data where the response measurements are unequally spaced and taken less frequently than for the timevarying covariates. Existing approaches to this problem focus on fixed effects linear models for univariate continuous responses. We propose a random effects estimator for a family of dynamic panel models that can handle continuous, binary or ordinal multivariate responses. The performance of the estimator is assessed in a simulation study. A bivariate probit dynamic panel model is then applied to estimate the effects of partnership and employment transitions in the previous year and the presence and age of children in the current year on an individual's propensity to give or receive help. Annual data on respondents' partnership, employment status and dependent children, and data on exchanges of help collected at 2-and 5-year intervals are used in this study. This is an open access article under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits use, distribution and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.

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Modeling Dynamic Preferences: A Bayesian Robust Dynamic Latent Ordered Probit Model

Cited by 39 publications

References 88 publications

The Altruistic Rich? Inequality and Other-Regarding Preferences for Redistribution

The Altruistic Rich? Inequality and Other-Regarding Preferences for Redistribution

When the Pound in People’s Pocket Matters: How Changes to Personal Financial Circumstances Affect Party Choice

Random Effects Dynamic Panel Models for Unequally Spaced Multivariate Categorical Repeated Measures: An Application to Child–Parent Exchanges of Support

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