Modeling hydrological variability of fresh water resources in the Rio Cobre watershed, Jamaica

Abstract:The Chao Phraya River in Thailand has been greatly affected by climate change and the occurrence of extreme flood events, hindering its economic development. This study assessed the hydrological responses of the Chao Phraya River basin under several climate sensitivity and greenhouse gas emission scenarios. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model was applied to simulate the streamflow using meteorological and observed data over a nine-year period from 2003 to 2011. The SWAT model produced an acceptable performance for calibration and validation, yielding Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) values greater than 0.5. Precipitation scenarios yielded streamflow variations that corresponded to the change of rainfall intensity and amount of rainfall, while scenarios with increased air temperatures predicted future water shortages. High CO2 concentration scenarios incorporated plant responses that led to a dramatic increase in streamflow. The greenhouse gas emission scenarios increased the streamflow variations to 6.8%, 41.9%, and 38.4% from the reference period (2003)(2004)(2005)(2006)(2007)(2008)(2009)(2010)(2011). This study also provided a framework upon which the peak flow can be managed to control the nonpoint sources during wet season. We hope that the future climate scenarios presented in this study could provide predictive information for the river basin.

Section: Performance Assessmentmentioning

confidence: 99%

Assessment on Hydrologic Response by Climate Change in the Chao Phraya River Basin, Thailand

Ligaray

Kim²,

Sthiannopkao

et al. 2015

“…Many researchers in different parts of the world have studied the impacts of climate variability and change on shifts in hydrological regimes and water resources (e.g., [25][26][27][28]). These studies assessed the current and future water resources availability and rainfall variability across the globe to support appropriate water resources planning and management.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Optimal Operation of Hydropower Reservoirs under Climate Change: The Case of Tekeze Reservoir, Eastern Nile

Abera

Asfaw

Engida

et al. 2018

Abstract:Optimal operation of reservoirs is very essential for water resource planning and management, but it is very challenging and complicated when dealing with climate change impacts. The objective of this paper was to assess existing and future hydropower operation at the Tekeze reservoir in the face of climate change. In this study, a calibrated and validated Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was used to model runoff inflow into the Tekeze hydropower reservoir under present and future climate scenarios. Inflow to the reservoir was simulated using hydro-climatic data from an ensemble of downscaled climate data based on the Coordinated Regional climate Downscaling Experiment over African domain (CORDEX-Africa) with Coupled Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) simulations under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP)4.5 and RCP8.5 climate scenarios. Observed and projected inflows to Tekeze hydropower reservoir were used as input to the US Army Corps of Engineer's Reservoir Evaluation System Perspective Reservoir Model (HEC-ResPRM), a reservoir operation model, to optimize hydropower reservoir release, storage and pool level. Results indicated that climate change has a clear impact on reservoir inflow and showed increase in annual and monthly inflow into the reservoir except in dry months from May to June under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 climate scenarios. HEC-ResPRM optimal operation results showed an increase in Tekeze reservoir power storage potential up to 25% and 30% under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 climate scenarios, respectively. This implies that Tekeze hydropower production will be affected by climate change. This analysis can be used by water resources planners and mangers to develop reservoir operation techniques considering climate change impact to increase power production.

“…The SWAT model is widely used in the simulation of the quality and quantity of surface and groundwater, in estimating the environmental impacts of different land use/land management practices and climate change, in calculating loads from pollutants, in evaluating best management practices, and in the simulation of various hydrological processes (runoff, infiltration, evapotranspiration, lateral flow, tile drainage, return flow, sediment etc) [15]. SWAT employs two different methods, the soil conservation services-curve number (SCS-CN) and the Green Ampt-MeinLarsen, for streamflow estimation [16][17][18][19]. Concurrent use of a digital elevation model (DEM), land use/land cover (LULC), and soil map alongside meteorological inputs also enables spatial analysis of the outputs produced by the model.…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

Calibration of SWAT and Two Data-Driven Models for a Data-Scarce Mountainous Headwater in Semi-Arid Konya Closed Basin

Köyceğiz

Büyükyıldız

2019

Hydrologic models are important tools for the successful management of water resources. In this study, a semi-distributed soil and water assessment tool (SWAT) model is used to simulate streamflow at the headwater of Çarşamba River, located at the Konya Closed Basin, Turkey. For that, first a sequential uncertainty fitting-2 (SUFI-2) algorithm is employed to calibrate the SWAT model. The SWAT model results are also compared with the results of the radial-based neural network (RBNN) and support vector machines (SVM). The SWAT model performed well at the calibration stage i.e., determination coefficient (R 2 ) = 0.787 and Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient (NSE) = 0.779, and relatively lower values at the validation stage i.e., R 2 = 0.508 and NSE = 0.502. Besides, the data-driven models were more successful than the SWAT model. Obviously, the physically-based SWAT model offers significant advantages such as performing a spatial analysis of the results, creating a streamflow model taking into account the environmental impacts. Also, we show that SWAT offers the ability to produce consistent solutions under varying scenarios whereas it requires a large number of inputs as compared to the data-driven models. explicit knowledge of the physical behavior of the system [8]. In addition, adequate data should be provided for the training process in data-driven models. SWAT, a physically-based model frequently used by different disciplines, evaluates the watershed from a wider perspective [9][10][11][12][13][14]. The SWAT model is widely used in the simulation of the quality and quantity of surface and groundwater, in estimating the environmental impacts of different land use/land management practices and climate change, in calculating loads from pollutants, in evaluating best management practices, and in the simulation of various hydrological processes (runoff, infiltration, evapotranspiration, lateral flow, tile drainage, return flow, sediment etc) [15]. SWAT employs two different methods, the soil conservation services-curve number (SCS-CN) and the Green Ampt-MeinLarsen, for streamflow estimation [16][17][18][19]. Concurrent use of a digital elevation model (DEM), land use/land cover (LULC), and soil map alongside meteorological inputs also enables spatial analysis of the outputs produced by the model. As it includes physical inputs, the SWAT model yields successful results also in ungauged catchments [20,21].AI models such as support vector machines (SVM), artificial neural networks (ANN) and adaptive network-based fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) are widely used in estimating hydrological and meteorological phenomena. Tongal [22] used a chaotic approach (k-nearest neighbor-kNN) and neural networks (feed-forward neural networks, FFNN) the non-linear estimation of the streamflow of Yamula station in Kızılırmak Basin and found that the kNN model was more successful than the FFNN model for streamflow estimation. Buyukyildiz et al. [23] used five different methods, including support vector regression (SVR), artificial neur...