Modeling impact and cost-effectiveness of gene drives for malaria elimination in the Democratic Republic of the Congo

Metchanun, Nawaphan; Borgemeister, Christian; Amzati, Gaston; Braun, Joachim von; Nikolov, Milen; Selvaraj, Prashanth; Gerardin, Jaline

doi:10.1101/2020.06.29.20142760

Cited by 1 publication

(1 citation statement)

References 60 publications

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“…Lastly, as demonstrated by case studies of odor-baited traps and LAIs, costing is another important dimension of TPPs that modeling may help to inform. Analyses focusing on deployment costs suggest that, due to their self-propagating nature, highly effective gene drives are expected to be more cost-effective than currently-available tools (38); however, similarly detailed analyses have yet to be conducted for monitoring requirements, which are expected to be a cost driver for the technology (39). That said; gene drives occupy a distinct niche in the malaria control toolkit due to their ability to spread and be effective despite compliance rates; therefore, costs may be best assessed against potentially available funds rather than the costs of other interventions.…”

Section: Biosafety and Cost Considerationsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Target Product Profiles for Mosquito Gene Drives: Incorporating Insights From Mathematical Models

Mondal¹,

Vásquez²,

Marshall³

2022

Front. Trop. Dis

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Mosquito-borne diseases such as malaria continue to pose a major global health burden, and the impact of currently-available interventions is stagnating. Consequently, there is interest in novel tools to control these diseases, including gene drive-modified mosquitoes. As these tools continue to be refined, decisions on whether to implement them in the field depend on their alignment with target product profiles (TPPs) that define product characteristics required to achieve desired entomological and epidemiological outcomes. TPPs are increasingly being used for malaria and vector control interventions, such as attractive targeted sugar baits and long-acting injectable drugs, as they progress through the development pipeline. For mosquito gene drive products, reliable predictions from mathematical models are an essential part of these analyses, as field releases could potentially be irreversible. Here, we review the prior use of mathematical models in developing TPPs for malaria and vector control tools and discuss lessons from these analyses that may apply to mosquito gene drives. We recommend that, as gene drive technology gets closer to field release, discussions regarding target outcomes engage a wide range of stakeholders and account for settings of interest and vector species present. Given the relatively large number of parameters that describe gene drive products, machine learning approaches may be useful to explore parameter space, and an emphasis on conservative fitness estimates is advisable, given the difficulty of accurately measuring these parameters prior to field studies. Modeling may also help to inform the risk, remediation and cost dimensions of mosquito gene drive TPPs.

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Section: Biosafety and Cost Considerationsmentioning

confidence: 99%