Malaria elimination will be challenging in countries that currently continue to bear high malaria burden. Sex‐ratio‐distorting gene drives, such as driving‐Y, could play a role in an integrated elimination strategy if they can effectively suppress vector populations. Using a spatially explicit, agent‐based model of malaria transmission in eight provinces spanning the range of transmission intensities across the Democratic Republic of the Congo, we predict the impact and cost‐effectiveness of integrating driving‐Y gene drive mosquitoes in malaria elimination strategies that include existing interventions such as insecticide‐treated nets and case management of symptomatic malaria. Gene drive mosquitoes could eliminate malaria and were the most cost‐effective intervention overall if the drive component was highly effective with at least 95% X‐shredder efficiency at relatively low fertility cost, and associated cost of deployment below 7.17 $int per person per year. Suppression gene drive could be a cost‐effective supplemental intervention for malaria elimination, but tight constraints on drive effectiveness and cost ceilings may limit its feasibility.
The tremendous burden of malaria has led to renewed efforts on malaria elimination and the development of novel tools for application where existing tools fall short. Gene drive mosquitoes, where transgenes and their associated phenotypes are efficiently propagated to future generations, are under development to suppress vector populations or render vectors incapable of malaria transmission. However, the role of gene drives in an integrated elimination strategy is underexplored. Using a spatially explicit agent-based model of malaria transmission in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, we describe the impact of integrating a population suppression driving-Y gene drive into malaria elimination strategies. We find that as long as the driving-Y construct is extremely effective, releases of gene drive mosquitoes can eliminate malaria, and we identify a cost ceiling for gene drive to be cost-effective relative to existing tools. Vector control via gene drive is worth considering as a supplemental intervention when the construct parameters and costs are suitable.
Thailand was the first country outside China to report a COVID-19 case but had a mild impact from the outbreak especially at the beginning of the pandemic. This study systematically investigates the evolution of the COVID-19 epidemic in Thailand from January 2020 to March 2021 to uncover the COVID-19 situation in the country. By modeling all health districts throughout the country, the study found that COVID-19 contributed to an increase in excess deaths and that COVID-19 deaths might be underreported. There was a lag time in ramping up testing although testing is key to control the disease. The estimated total number of beds required by COVID-19 seems low, but it may not ensure the capacity to take care of critical cases that required ICU beds, specific medical equipment, and trained medical staff.
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