Modeling impacts of climate change on the potential distribution of six endemic baobab species in Madagascar

Wan, Junnan; Mbari, Ndungu J.; Wang, Shengwei; Liu, Bing; Mwangi, Brian; Rasoarahona, Jean; Xin, H. P.; Zhou, Yadong; Wang, Qingfeng

doi:10.1016/j.pld.2020.07.001

Cited by 37 publications

(23 citation statements)

References 43 publications

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“…grandidieri should not be vulnerable to climate change. In a recent study, Wan et al (2020) found contradictory results to ours: a resilience of A . perrieri and A .…”

Section: Discussioncontrasting

confidence: 80%

“…In particular, the vulnerability of A . za to climate change found by Wan et al (2020) seems to be in contradiction with its known biology and distribution as a generalist species (Figures S1, S2, S5, and Table S5).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 59%

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In addition, their statistical approach was very limited in comparison to ours. Wan et al (2020) used only one algorithm (Maxent), whereas we used four algorithms for both the ensemble modelling and the forecasting approach. In particular, the vulnerability of A. za to climate change found by Wan et al (2020) seems to be in contradiction with its known biology and distribution as a generalist species (Figures S1, S2, S5, and Table S5).…”

Section: Vulnerability Of Baobab Species To Climate Change and Conservation Statusmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…However, the study does not analyze the respective role of each variable in explaining species range shift and does not suggest potential mechanisms that could explain the species extinction. In addition, a recent study assessing the vulnerability of Madagascar endemic baobabs to future climate change also failed to explore the underlying mechanisms behind expected species range shifts (Wan et al, 2020).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Not all species will migrate poleward as the climate warms: The case of the seven baobab species in Madagascar

Tagliari

Danthu²,

Tsy

et al. 2021

Global Change Biology

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It is commonly accepted that species should move toward higher elevations and latitudes to track shifting isotherms as climate warms. However, temperature might not be the only limiting factor determining species distribution. Species might move to opposite directions to track changes in other climatic variables. Here, we used an extensive occurrence data set and an ensemble modelling approach to model the climatic niche and to predict the distribution of the seven baobab species (genus Adansonia) present in Madagascar. Using climatic projections from three global circulation models, we predicted species' future distribution and extinction risk for 2055 and 2085 under two representative concentration pathways (RCPs) and two dispersal scenarios. We disentangled the role of each climatic variable in explaining species range shift looking at relative variable importance and future climatic anomalies. Four baobab species (Adansonia rubrostipa, Adansonia madagascariensis, Adansonia perrieri¸ and Adansonia suarezensis) could experience a severe range contraction in the future (>70% for year 2085 under RCP 8.5, assuming a zero-dispersal hypothesis). For three out of the four threatened species, range contraction was mainly explained by an increase in temperature seasonality, especially in the North of Madagascar, where they are currently distributed. In tropical regions, where species are commonly adapted to low seasonality, we found that temperature seasonality will generally increase. It is, thus, very likely that many species in the tropics will be forced to move equatorward to avoid an increase in temperature seasonality. Yet, several ecological (e.g., equatorial limit, or unsuitable deforested habitat) or geographical barriers (absence of lands) could prevent species to move equatorward, thus increasing the extinction risk of many tropical species, like endemic baobab species in Madagascar.

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“…grandidieri should not be vulnerable to climate change. In a recent study, Wan et al (2020) found contradictory results to ours: a resilience of A . perrieri and A .…”

Section: Discussioncontrasting

confidence: 80%

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 59%

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Vulnerability Of Baobab Species To Climate Change and Conservation Statusmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 3 more Smart Citations

Not all species will migrate poleward as the climate warms: The case of the seven baobab species in Madagascar

Tagliari

Danthu²,

Tsy

et al. 2021

Global Change Biology

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Predicting the Potential Distribution of Rare and Endangered Emmenopterys henryi in China Under Climate Change

Cai,

Zhang

2024

Ecology and Evolution

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Climate change has a pivotal impact on the potential distribution of endangered and relic tree species. Probably due to unrepresentative sampling and single algorithm, at present, there are different views on the potential range of the endangered tree Emmenopterys henryi, endemic to China. Here, we first collated 612 occurrence records and 22 environmental variables including climate, topography, and soil. Combined the Biomod2 with MaxEnt, we then predicted its past, current, and future potential suitable area in China, and determined the key factors influencing its distribution. The ensemble model results showed that the main environmental variables affecting this species were the minimum temperature of the coldest month (BIO6), precipitation of warmest quarter (BIO18), and temperature seasonality (BIO4). Its current potential distribution area was 176.53 × 104 km2, mainly concentrated in eastern, central, and southwestern China. Collectively, the suitable area of E. henryi would averagely decrease by 3.90% in all 16 future scenarios, with its centroid largely migrating northeastward. Our findings indicate that the endangered E. henryi covered 18 provinces in China, having a larger area than known. Moreover, climate change may have an adverse effect on its potential distribution. In addition, the ensemble model can produce more effective prediction outcomes than MaxEnt for such endemic tree species with large environmental range. We recommend increasing sample representativeness by analyzing the completeness properties of sample coverage, and simultaneously selecting appropriate algorithms to ensure the reliability of distribution prediction for endangered and relict tree species.

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Impacts of climate change on species distribution patterns of Polyspora sweet in China

Fan

Zhou

Chang-le

et al. 2022

Ecology and Evolution

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Climate change is an important driver of species distribution and biodiversity. Understanding the response of plants to climate change is helpful to understand species differentiation and formulate conservation strategies. The genus Polyspora (Theaceae) has an ancient origin and is widely distributed in subtropical evergreen broad‐leaved forests. Studies on the impacts of climate change on species geographical distribution of Chinese Polyspora can provide an important reference for exploring the responses of plant groups in subtropical evergreen broad‐leaved forests with geological events and climate change in China. Based on the environmental variables, distribution records, and chloroplast genomes, we modeled the potential distribution of Chinese Polyspora in the Last Glacial Maximum, middle Holocene, current, and future by using MaxEnt‐ArcGIS model and molecular phylogenetic method. The changes in the species distribution area, centroid shift, and ecological niche in each periods were analyzed to speculate the response modes of Chinese Polyspora to climate change in different periods. The most important environmental factor affecting the distribution of Polyspora was the precipitation of the driest month, ranging from 13 to 25 mm for the highly suitable habitats. At present, highly suitable distribution areas of Polyspora were mainly located in the south of 25°N, and had species‐specificity. The main glacial refugia of the Chinese Polyspora might be located in the Ailao, Gaoligong, and Dawei Mountains of Yunnan Province. Jinping County, Pingbian County, and the Maguan County at the border of China and Vietnam might be the species differentiation center of the Chinese Polyspora . Moderate climate warming in the future would be beneficial to the survival of P. axillaris , P. chrysandra , and P. speciosa . However, climate warming under different shared socio‐economic pathways would reduce the suitable habitats of P. hainanensis and P. longicarpa .

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Modeling impacts of climate change on the potential distribution of six endemic baobab species in Madagascar

Cited by 37 publications

References 43 publications

Not all species will migrate poleward as the climate warms: The case of the seven baobab species in Madagascar

Not all species will migrate poleward as the climate warms: The case of the seven baobab species in Madagascar

Predicting the Potential Distribution of Rare and Endangered Emmenopterys henryi in China Under Climate Change

Impacts of climate change on species distribution patterns of Polyspora sweet in China

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