Modeling impacts of climate change on the geographic distribution and abundances of Tamarindus indica in Tigray region, Ethiopia

Gufi, Yirga; Manaye, Ashenafi; Tesfamariam, Berihu; Abrha, Haftu; Tesfaye, Musse; Hintsa, Sibhatleab

doi:10.1016/j.heliyon.2023.e17471

Cited by 4 publications

(1 citation statement)

References 69 publications

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“…Explorations or crop field surveys ( Scrivanti and Anton, 2020 ; Gufi et al., 2023 ) were conducted in all areas of Central Java, Indonesia, to record the existence of A. altilis ( Figure 2 ) in real time. The field location was chosen using information from the Herbarium Bogoriense and a database provided and gathered from literature reviews and the Agency for Agriculture and Forestry of Ministry for Agriculture and Forestry, Indonesia.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Predicting the suitable cultivation areas of breadfruit crops Artocarpus altilis (Moraceae) under future climate scenarios in Central Java, Indonesia

Utomo,

Lestari,

Adiwibowo

et al. 2024

Front. Plant Sci.

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Artocarpus altilis, commonly known as breadfruit, is a potential crop adapted to a wide variety of climates and widely spread, including in Indonesia. However, information on how this species can adapt to climate change, in particular in Central Java, is still limited. In Indonesia, Central Java is the center for cultivation areas for many crop species to support the 145 million people living on Java Island. One of the potential crops being developed in Central Java is breadfruit. To assess the suitable cultivation areas for breadfruit, species distribution modeling (SDM) was used to predict the current and future (2050–2070) distribution of breadfruit. Two climate change scenarios, including optimistic RCP2.6 and pessimistic RCP8.5 models, were considered to represent future climate change impacts. Based on the results for both optimistic and pessimistic scenarios, the breadfruit’s suitable cultivation areas will expand eastward. Implementing a mitigation climate change scenario and limiting the temperature increase to only 1°C under RCP2.6 will provide 270.967 km2 more of suitable cultivation areas for breadfruit in 2050 and 133.296 km2 in 2070. To conclude, this study provides important information on the status and potential cultivation areas for breadfruit, mainly in the Southeast Asia region. The identification of suitable areas will guide land conservation for breadfruit to support food security in this region.

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Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Predicting the suitable cultivation areas of breadfruit crops Artocarpus altilis (Moraceae) under future climate scenarios in Central Java, Indonesia

Utomo,

Lestari,

Adiwibowo

et al. 2024

Front. Plant Sci.

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Agroforestry practices for climate change adaptation and livelihood resilience in drylands of Ethiopia

Zeratsion,

Manaye,

Gufi

et al. 2023

Forest Science and Technology

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Impacts of Climate Change on the Distribution of African Wild Olive Tree in the Arid Environments of Northern Ethiopia

Gufi,

Tesfamariam,

Manaye

et al. 2024

International Journal of Ecology

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Climate change is impacting the sustainability of indigenous tree species. However, the impacts of climate change on African olive tree (Olea europaea subspecies Cuspidata) are less‐explored. This study, conducted in Tigray, northern Ethiopia, aims to determine the impacts of climate change on the current and future distributions of the species. A total of 225 presence points and abundance of O. europaea within 20 m × 20 m plots at each location were collected. Additional input variables, such as the 19 bioclimatic variables, 3 topographic variables, and Pedologic data, were used. Maxent software was employed to predict the distribution of the species under current and future climate scenarios. The correlation between the tree’s abundance and environmental factors was ascertained using Spearman’s correlation. The findings indicated that the most crucial factors affecting the distribution of the tree were temperature seasonality, altitude, and precipitations during the driest month. The current range of the species covered 1979 km2 (3.01%) of Tigray. This coverage is expected to increase by 13.64% under 2070_RCP4.5 scenario. However, under 2070_RCP8.5, a total loss of suitable habitats is anticipated. Rainfall, slope, altitude, soil organic carbon, and silt contents had a positive correlation with the species abundance, whereas sand, clay, bulk density, and soil pH had a negative correlation (p < 0.05). In conclusion, the species may locally disappear due to the adverse effects of future climate change under the RCP8.5. Hence, the study recommends immediate in situ and ex situ conservation efforts to sustain the populations and important values of the tree.

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Modeling impacts of climate change on the geographic distribution and abundances of Tamarindus indica in Tigray region, Ethiopia

Cited by 4 publications

References 69 publications

Predicting the suitable cultivation areas of breadfruit crops Artocarpus altilis (Moraceae) under future climate scenarios in Central Java, Indonesia

Predicting the suitable cultivation areas of breadfruit crops Artocarpus altilis (Moraceae) under future climate scenarios in Central Java, Indonesia

Agroforestry practices for climate change adaptation and livelihood resilience in drylands of Ethiopia

Impacts of Climate Change on the Distribution of African Wild Olive Tree in the Arid Environments of Northern Ethiopia

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