Modeling Migration Dynamics of Immigrants: The Case of the Netherlands

Abstract

Standard-Nutzungsbedingungen:Die Dokumente auf EconStor dürfen zu eigenen wissenschaftlichen Zwecken und zum Privatgebrauch gespeichert und kopiert werden.Sie dürfen die Dokumente nicht für öffentliche oder kommerzielle Zwecke vervielfältigen, öffentlich ausstellen, öffentlich zugänglich machen, vertreiben oder anderweitig nutzen.Sofern die Verfasser die Dokumente unter Open-Content-Lizenzen (insbesondere CC-Lizenzen) zur Verfügung gestellt haben sollten, gelten abweichend von diesen Nutzungsbedingungen die in der dort genannten Lizenz gewährten Nutzungsrechte. Terms of use: Documents in Modeling Migration Dynamics of Immigrants: The Case of The NetherlandsGovert E. Bijwaard The Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA) in Bonn is a local and virtual international research center and a place of communication between science, politics and business. IZA is an independent nonprofit company supported by Deutsche Post World Net. The center is associated with the University of Bonn and offers a stimulating research environment through its research networks, research support, and visitors and doctoral programs. IZA engages in (i) original and internationally competitive research in all fields of labor economics, (ii) development of policy concepts, and (iii) dissemination of research results and concepts to the interested public. D I S C U S S I O N P A P E R S E R I E SIZA Discussion Papers often represent preliminary work and are circulated to encourage discussion. Citation of such a paper should account for its provisional character. A revised version may be available directly from the author. In this paper we analyze the demographic factors that influence the migration dynamics of recent immigrants to The Netherlands. We show how we can allow for both permanent and temporary migrants. Based on data from Statistics Netherlands we analyze both the departure and the return from abroad for recent non-Dutch immigrants to The Netherlands. Results disclose differences among migrants by migration motive and by country of origin and lend support to our analytical framework. Combining both models, for departure and returning, provides the probability that a specific migrant ends-up in The Netherlands. It also yields a framework for predicting the migration dynamics over the life-cycle. We can conclude that for a complete view of the migration dynamics it is important to allow for both permanent (stayers) migrants and temporary (movers) migrants and that return from abroad should not be neglected.JEL Classification: F22, J10, C41

Return migration, human capital accumulation and the brain drain

“…Each person is characterized by a bundle of two latent skills and in each country there is some bivariate distribution of these skills in the population. 8 For any fixed price of skills, one can use a linear transformation to translate the latent skills S 1 and S 2 that a worker possesses to the potential productive capacities of the worker in each of the two countries, lnK a and lnK b . We can thus describe a worker by the pair (K a (t), K b (t)) instead of a pair of latent skills (S 1 (t), S 2 (t)).…”

“…Of the foreign born population that entered the UK in the 1990's, and stayed for at least one year, about 40% had left the UK after another 5 years (see Dustmann and Weiss, 2007). Bijwaard (2008) reports that of those arriving to the Netherlands, about 40% have left the country within seven years. Christophe and G. Spielvogel (2008) report similar out-migration rates for other countries.…”

Have Migrants Bought a "Round Trip Ticket"? Determinants in Probability of Immigrants' Return in Spain

“…There are some exceptions such as Bijwaard (2007), Detang-Dessendre and Baer (1999), Longva (2001) or Constant and Zimmermann (2003).…”

“…The survival curve illustrates the hazard of return for each point of time of residence controlled by several covariates influencing it. Although this technical approach is a useful way to model the returns, it has not been used frequently (Reyes, 2001;Bijwaard, 2007).…”

Employment Assimilation of Immigrants in the Netherlands

“…Among immigrants motivated by family re-unification, 19% has left within five years, while this is 16% for immigrants motivated by family formation (Hartog and Zorlu, 2004). Bijwaard (2007), applying a mover-stayer model and including repeat migration, estimates the long-run probability of ending up in The Netherlands, by motive and country of origin. For an unmarried male immigrant from an EU or EFTA country, the probabilities are 51% for labour migrants, 35 % for family reunion and 74 % for family formation (Bijwaard excludes refugees).…”