Modeling of group-specific mortality in China using a modified Lee–Carter model

Abstract

The paper assesses sex-age-specific mortality rates of the four groups of people in China, the country, cities, towns, and counties, based on the mortality data from the China Population Statistics Yearbooks (1988Á2009) using a newly proposed modified LeeÁCarter model. The results show that in general, the expected age-specific mortality rates decrease over the years, and the decreasing speed increased in the past decade. During 2000Á2008, the expected mortality rates decreased over the years for females of all ages and groups and males in cities, remained with no changes for males ages 13Á36 in the country and towns, but increased for males ages 13Á43 in counties. Predictions for 2009 are made based on the 2000Á2008 data, and comparisons to the observed rates from an annual survey show that they match each other well except for males ages 13Á43 in counties, whose mortality rates reached record highs around 2005, and bounced back to the level of 2000 in 2008 and was reduced a little further in 2009, benefiting from the promulgations and enforcements of some safety regulations by the government on construction and mining sites where most labors are from counties. The predicted age-specific mortality rates from the model are compared to the assumed rates in the China Life Insurance Mortality Table (2000Á2003) promulgated by the China Insurance Regulatory Commission, and they show a great deal of similarity in terms of changing trends over the ages.

Mortality forecasting using a modified Continuous Mortality Investigation Mortality Projections Model for China I: methodology and country-level results

“…The crude death rates of the four censuses are plotted in Figure 28. We can see that the mortality decline is faster in most recent decade (2000-2010) than in previous decades, which is consistent with the findings in Zhao et al (2013).…”

“…Most research uses 1% or 0.1% survey mortality data collected from China Population Statistics Yearbooks (1988)(1989)(1990)(1991)(1992)(1993)(1994)(1995)(1996)(1997)(1998)(1999)(2000)(2001)(2002)(2003)(2004)(2005)(2006) and China Population and Employment Statistics Yearbooks (2007-2012) 1 and the population census data (1981, 1989/1990, 2000 and 2010) 2 for mortality modelling and forecasting purposes (e.g. see Wang & Huang, 2011;Zhao, 2012;Zhao et al, 2013). Some research also uses Chinese mortality data from the China Death Cause Survey 3 (see Li & Lee, 2005).…”

“…The Chinese mortality rates are then projected to 2010 for both males and females. Employing the same method, Zhao et al (2013) investigate the group-specific (the country (national), cities, towns and counties) mortality in China and find that in general the age-specific mortality rates decrease over the years and the speed of the decrease increased in the past decade. There are also some papers in Chinese using the original Lee-Carter method or its variants to project Chinese mortality (see Lu & Yin, 2005;Wang & Huang, 2011).…”

Mortality forecasting using a modified CMI Mortality Projections Model for China II: cities, towns and counties

“…This finding is also consistent with Zhao et al . (2013). We also find that the definitions of cities, towns and counties have been modified in 2006 and 2008, which may add “noise” to the historical patterns 1 .…”

A Bayesian Approach to Developing a Stochastic Mortality Model for China

“…Although its practical relevance is clear, the development of stochastic mortality models for China has not been given much attention. Many of the existing studies of Chinese mortality, including those conducted by Banister and Hill (2004), Zhao (2012) and Zhao et al (2013), focus primarily on (deterministically) trending past observations. Only a handful of attempts have been made to build stochastic mortality models for China, and, as explained later in this section, they are subject to some significant limitations.…”