Modeling of investment risks associated with changes in land reclamation status of fire-dangerous peatlands in Ryazan Meshchera

Abstract

Abstract. European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, within the framework of the Energy and Natural Resources program, invests in regions to irrigate peatlands for the implementation of a large-scale international project "Wetlands and Climate". Similar activities began in Meshchera, a large forest and marsh area in Central Russia, where wildfires often occur in dry summers. However, in these investment projects, environmental and economic risks are not sufficiently taken into account. The proposed new approach is based on modelling the soil cover after implementing measures for flooding fire-hazardous peatlands. This allows us to quantify how flooding affects the risks associated with fires. It also allows finding the most economically effective type of land use after flooding. We carried out numerical simulation of flooding for a separate land plot in Ryazan Meshchera, which showed a twofold reduction in the risks associated with fires, as well as an increase in largescale heterogeneity of the soil cover. This led to the conclusion that for this site the most cost-effective will be investment in projects aimed at narrowly specialized land use.