Modeling projected impacts of climate and land use/land cover changes on hydrological responses in the Lake Tana Basin, upper Blue Nile River Basin, Ethiopia

Getachew, Birhan; Manjunatha, B.R.; Bhat, H. Gangadhara

doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2021.125974

Cited by 87 publications

(41 citation statements)

References 59 publications

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“…From these studies, recently [60] mean annual maximum (minimum) temperature projection showed an increasing trend by 2.48(4.74) • C under RCP4.5 and 4.89(2.22) • C under RCP8.5 by the end of the 21st century (2070-2099). Similar warming trends of mean annual temperature with large seasonal and spatial variations over the basin were also reported by other studies e.g., [11,12,17,28,59,60,63,[65][66][67][68][69].…”

Section: Model Selection and Future Climate Projectionsupporting

confidence: 88%

“…[17,70] found increasing trends of mean annual rainfall up to 27%. Unlike [69,71] reported an increasing trend during the rainy season and no significant trend during the dry season. An increasing tendency for extreme precipitation event contributions to total precipitation for East Africa was reported by [26,61].…”

Section: Model Selection and Future Climate Projectionmentioning

confidence: 78%

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Evaluation of Past and Future Climate Trends under CMIP6 Scenarios for the UBNB (Abay), Ethiopia

Alaminie

Tilahun

Addisu

et al. 2021

Water

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Climate predictions using recent and high-resolution climate models are becoming important for effective decision-making and for designing appropriate climate change adaptation and mitigation strategies. Due to highly variable climate and data scarcity of the upper Blue Nile Basin, previous studies did not detect specific unified trends. This study discusses, the past and future climate projections under CMIP6-SSPs scenarios for the basin. For the models’ validation and selection, reanalysis data were used after comparing with area-averaged ground observational data. Quantile mapping systematic bias correction and Mann–Kendall trend test were applied to evaluate the trends of selected CMIP6 models during the 21st century. Results revealed that, ERA5 for temperature and GPCC for precipitation have best agreement with the basin observational data, MRI-ESM2-0 for temperature and BCC-CSM-2MR for precipitation were selected based on their highest performance. The MRI-ESM2-0 mean annual maximum temperature for the near (long)-term period shows an increase of 1.1 (1.5) °C, 1.3 (2.2) °C, 1.2 (2.8) °C, and 1.5 (3.8) °C under the four SSPs. On the other hand, the BCC-CSM-2MR precipitation projections show slightly (statistically insignificant) increasing trend for the near (long)-term periods by 5.9 (6.1)%, 12.8 (13.7)%, 9.5 (9.1)%, and 17.1(17.7)% under four SSPs scenarios.

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Section: Model Selection and Future Climate Projectionsupporting

confidence: 88%

Section: Model Selection and Future Climate Projectionmentioning

confidence: 78%

Evaluation of Past and Future Climate Trends under CMIP6 Scenarios for the UBNB (Abay), Ethiopia

Alaminie

Tilahun

Addisu

et al. 2021

Water

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“…Other studies have discussed the impacts of LULC and climate changes on catchment hydrologic processes at different places (Li et al 2009;Zuo et al 2016;Bessah et al 2020). Studies in Blue Nile Basin, Ethiopia indicated that water resources are vulnerable to both LULC and climate changes (Woldesenbet et al 2018;Gebresilassie et al 2020;Tigabu et al 2020;Getachew et al 2021;Negesse 2021;Teklay et al 2021). Besides, a study at the Rift Valley Basin, Ethiopia showed that the combined effect of LULC and climate changes significantly decreases streamflow by 11.8% and increases evapotranspiration by 2.2% at Meki River Basin (Legesse et al 2010).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Hydrologic responses to climate and land-use/land-cover changes in the Bilate catchment, Southern Ethiopia

Kuma

Fufa

Demissie

2021

Journal of Water and Climate Change

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The likely effects of climate and land-use/land-cover (LULC) changes on hydrologic processes in Bilate catchment, Ethiopia were evaluated. The study emphasizes the evaluation of individual and combined impacts on hydrologic responses of climate and LULC changes. Climatic scenarios included a downscaled regional climate model from CORDEX-Africa. The CA–Markov model was used to project LULC. The results revealed that distinct changes on hydrologic responses occurred which follow the direction of climate and LULC changes. A 30.87% decline in rainfall resulted in about 4.09, 1.43 and 3.57% decline in runoff, groundwater and water yield, respectively. A rise in mean temperature by 1.3 °C resulted in 7 and 0.8% increase in potential and actual evapotranspiration, respectively. Runoff, groundwater and water yield are projected to decrease by 11.24, 12.54 and 11.54%; however, potential and actual evapotranspiration are projected to increase by 19 and 14.7%, respectively, under combined climate and LULC changes. The joint effects of climate and LULC changes on hydrologic responses in the forthcoming were higher than the variation trend of climate or LULC change alone. Climate change compared with LULC change has a higher impact on hydrologic responses. The results obtained provide further insight into future water balance, assistance in water resources planning and management.

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“…However, there is highly variable and inconsistent results of the effects of the changes from land use/cover and climate on the water yield pattern (e.g. limited effects (Buttle, et al, 2000;Galleguillos et al, 2021), no effects (Antonio, et al, 2008), or positive effects (Wang et al, 2011;Getachew, et al, 2021)), which have led to debates in water resources management communities (Andréassian et al, 2004), especially the results at different time scales in a place can bring confusing. Land cover/use varies with the interaction between the geology, soils, vegetation and meteorological factors (e.g.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Water Yield Pattern for Annual and Monthly Scales Through a Unifying Catchment Water Balance Model

Liu

2022

Preprint

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Long-term scheduling and short-term decision-making for water resources management often require understanding the relationship of water yield pattern between the annual and monthly scales. As the water yield pattern mainly depends on land cover/use and climate, a unifying catchment water balance model with factors has been adopted to derive a theoretical water yield pattern with annual and monthly scales. Two critical values at the parameters ε=1-√2/2 and ϕ=1.0 are identified. The parameter ε referring to the water storage (land use/cover) and evaporation (climate) changes can make more contribution than ϕ for water yield when ϕ>1.0, especially with ε<1-√2/2. But there is less contribution made by ε when ϕ<1.0. The derived theoretical water yield patterns have also been validated by the observed data or the simulated data through the hydrological model. Due to the bias of the soil moisture data, a lot of the estimated parameter ε values are over its theoretical range, especially for the monthly scale in humid basins. The performance of the derived theoretical water yield pattern at annual scale is much better than that at monthly scale while there are only a few data sets from the arid basin at every months fall within their theoretical ranges. Even the relative contributions of ε is found to be bigger than those of ϕ due to ε<1-√2/2 and ϕ>1.0, there are no significant linear relationships between annual and monthly parameters ε and ϕ. Our results not only validate the derived theoretical water yield pattern with the estimated parameter directly by the observed or simulated data rather than the calibrated parameter, but also can guide for further understanding physical of water balance to conversion time scales for the combing long-term and short-term water resources management.

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Modeling projected impacts of climate and land use/land cover changes on hydrological responses in the Lake Tana Basin, upper Blue Nile River Basin, Ethiopia

Cited by 87 publications

References 59 publications

Evaluation of Past and Future Climate Trends under CMIP6 Scenarios for the UBNB (Abay), Ethiopia

Evaluation of Past and Future Climate Trends under CMIP6 Scenarios for the UBNB (Abay), Ethiopia

Hydrologic responses to climate and land-use/land-cover changes in the Bilate catchment, Southern Ethiopia

The Water Yield Pattern for Annual and Monthly Scales Through a Unifying Catchment Water Balance Model

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