Modeling, simulation and forecasting of wind power plants using agent-based approach

Abstract

National economy and growth rely heavily on electricity but rapid urbanization, expeditious industrialization and increased domestic use due to population growth are among the reasons for the severe energy crisis in developing countries. The extended demand-supply gaps, depleting reservoirs of fossil fuel, and the environmental hazards altogether ignite the need for wider adoption of renewable energy resources for electricity generation. A functional assessment of the engineering design for this transition is a prerequisite before proceeding to on-ground implementation due to its high impact on system sustainability. To this end, we propose an agent-based modeling and simulation framework for the rapid prototyping of wind power plants. The proposed approach abstracts active components of wind power plants using agents and implements their dynamic behavior through agent interactions. The proposed model helps in composing different model components, design valuation, and forecasting energy generation in a cost-effective and productive manner. The proposed model is demonstrated by conceptualizing the design of the Foundation Wind Energy plant, located at Sindh, Pakistan, and the development of its agent-based model. The obtained short-term and long-term electricity generation profiles are validated with the actual data. We further compared the forecasts with the time series analysis performed on the actual data, using five different time-series forecasting models. The proposed simulation model and time series analysis model fit well on the actual data with a root mean square deviation of approximately 9 MW. The proposed framework will assist the policymakers in estimating the extent of electrical energy produced at given conditions using the wind potential available at the corridors of any country. It will further aid in the realistic analysis of the future dynamics of electricity demand and supply, hence help in effective energy planning.

Wind Power Generation in Sudano-Sahelian Region of Nigeria: a Review

“…Wind turbines, based on the direction of spin, can be classified into two [7]: 1) horizontal axis wind turbines (HAWT); vertical axis wind turbines (VAWT).…”

“…An agent-based modelling and simulation framework that helps compose different model components, design valuation and forecasting energy generation cost-effectively and productively for the rapid prototyping of wind power plants was proposed by [7]. The model was demonstrated by conceptualising the design of the foundation wind energy plant in Pakistan, and the development of its agent-based model.…”

A review of hydrogen-based hybrid renewable energy systems: Simulation and optimization with artificial intelligence

“…SRESs usually consist of a renewable energy generator, the converter, and the load [11]. Aimed at various SRESs, many researchers carried out numerous studies by simulations and experiments [12][13][14]. They focused on the performance characteristics of different renewable energy for power generation, whether the power supply meets the requirements of the load and different optimization approaches for the system.…”

Multi Agent System Based Approach for Industrial Process Simulation

“…Chen et al [26] describe the modeling and the simulation of stochastic heat pump usage behavior in residential communities, which is a mechanical domain. Mahmood et al [27] reports an agent-based modeling simulation of the natural phenomenon related to the rapid prototyping of wind power plants. Macal [28] present a multi-agent systems dedicated to modelling systems engineering and management problems.…”