Modeling the distribution and abundance of eastern tur (Capra cylindricornis) in the Caucasus

Identifying priority areas for restoring mountain ungulates in the Caucasus ecoregion

“…Likewise, competition with other mountain ungulates, particularly tur and chamois, could prevent colonization. These species are better adapted to wetter and snowier conditions (Gavashelishvili et al, 2018), and we indeed found many moderately suitable bezoar goat habitat patches in the western Greater Caucasus to be highly suitable for turs (Figure 4b). While the complex relationship of competition between multiple mountain ungulates and the resulting niche partitioning and distributions remains weakly understood (Bleyhl et al, 2019; Gavashelishvili et al, 2018), competition is a plausible explanation for the absence of bezoar goats in the western Greater Caucasus.…”

“…These species are better adapted to wetter and snowier conditions (Gavashelishvili et al, 2018), and we indeed found many moderately suitable bezoar goat habitat patches in the western Greater Caucasus to be highly suitable for turs (Figure 4b). While the complex relationship of competition between multiple mountain ungulates and the resulting niche partitioning and distributions remains weakly understood (Bleyhl et al, 2019; Gavashelishvili et al, 2018), competition is a plausible explanation for the absence of bezoar goats in the western Greater Caucasus. Thus, although we find potentially suitable habitat for bezoar goats in the northwestern Caucasus, we explicitly caution against restoration projects there (e.g., reintroductions) until the biogeographic history and ecology of interactions with other mountain ungulates are better understood.…”

“…Addressing these threats, particularly poaching, would benefit bezoar goats and many other threatened large mammals in the Caucasus. Likewise, our work highlights the importance of border regions as havens for mountain ungulates, translating into an urgent need for transboundary, ecoregion-wide restoration planning in the Caucasus biodiversity hotspot (Farhadinia et al, 2015;Zazanashvili & Mallon, 2009) as well as other mountain regions of the world (Gavashelishvili et al, 2018). earlier manuscript version.…”

“…As elsewhere, spatial data on poaching is unavailable in the Caucasus, preventing us from including poaching directly in our models. Yet poaching is a key threat to mountain ungulates in this region (Ghoddousi et al, 2019; Soofi et al, 2019; Zazanashvili & Mallon, 2009), as these species are preferred by poachers and easy to hunt (Ghoddousi et al, 2019), and because poaching is linked to transhumance grazing still found across large areas in the Caucasus (Gavashelishvili et al, 2018). Most extant bezoar goat populations we identified are confined to protected areas, even within otherwise larger patches of habitat (Figure 3, Figure S1, Supporting Information).…”

“…Direct competition between bezoar goats and livestock is likely lower than for other mountain ungulates (Bleyhl et al, 2019), due to bezoar goats clear connection to steep cliffs. However, shepherds can exert substantial poaching pressure (Gavashelishvili et al, 2018). Likewise, incorporation of other potential threats, such as mining and infrastructure development, would improve our models.…”