Modeling the distribution of urolithiasis prevalence under projected climate change in Iran

Shajari, Ahmad; Sanjerehei, Mohammad Mousaei

doi:10.1007/s00240-015-0784-2

Cited by 15 publications

(5 citation statements)

References 21 publications

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“…The northwest and west areas of Iran, which were much cooler than other regions, witnessed a higher prevalence of urolithiasis during 2007–2008 [58] . The reason for it may be related to a concept of temperature threshold value [60] . The prevalence rate may be higher in the areas where temperature just reaches the threshold (i.e., 18°C in Korea), compared with those under or exceeding it [61] .…”

Section: Risk Factorsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Epidemiology of urolithiasis in Asia

Liu

Chen

Liao

et al. 2018

Asian Journal of Urology

292

205

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In Asia, about 1%–19.1% of the population suffer from urolithiasis. However, due to variations in socio-economic status and geographic locations, the prevalence and incidence have changed in different countries or regions over the years. The research for risk factors of urinary tract stones is of predominant importance. In this review, we find the prevalence of urolithiasis is 5%–19.1% in West Asia, Southeast Asia, South Asia, as well as some developed countries (South Korea and Japan), whereas, it is only 1%–8% in most part of East Asia and North Asia. The recurrence rate ranges from 21% to 53% after 3–5 years. Calcium oxalate (75%–90%) is the most frequent component of calculi, followed by uric acid (5%−20%), calcium phosphate (6%−13%), struvite (2%−15%), apatite (1%) and cystine (0.5%−1%). The incidence of urolithiasis reaches its peak in population aged over 30 years. Males are more likely to suffer from urinary calculi. Because of different dietary habits or genetic background, differences of prevalence among races or nationalities also exist. Genetic mutation of specific locus may contribute to the formation of different kinds of calculi. Dietary habits (westernized dietary habits and less fluid intake), as well as climatic factors (hot temperature and many hours of exposure to sunshine) play a crucial role in the development of stones. Other diseases, especially metabolic syndrome, may also contribute to urinary tract stones.

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Section: Risk Factorsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Epidemiology of urolithiasis in Asia

Liu

Chen

Liao

et al. 2018

Asian Journal of Urology

292

205

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…Some recent studies show changes in the distribution of urolithiasis disease over the few last years [ 5 , 10 ]. This study explored the incidence of urolithiasis in 204 countries during the last decades.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Also, urolithiasis is the reason for 4 to 8 percent of end-stage renal disease. Some recent studies show urolithiasis disease distribution changes over the last years [ 5 ]. Various factors have been proposed for this phenomenon.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Longitudinal trend of urolithiasis incidence rates among world countries during past decades

Borumandnia,

Fattahi,

Talebi

et al. 2023

BMC Urol

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Introduction This study explores the trend of urolithiasis in various countries and categorizes the countries in terms of how their urolithiasis incidence rate has changed over time. Methods The incidence rate of urolithiasis in 204 countries from 1990 to 2019, extracted from the Global Burden of Disease study, has been analyzed. Results According to the results, all regions had experienced an increasing trend in urolithiasis rate, except for Eastern Europe, Central Europe, and Southeast Asia regions (decreasing rates of -71.4, -56.2, and -9.2 per 100000, respectively). Moreover, the Caribbean region had the highest increasing trend of urolithiasis rates, and Central Asia was in the next rank (increasing rate of 48.3 and 34.3 per 100,000, respectively, p-value < .05). Also, African regions revealed significant increasing trends over time (p-value < 0.05). The outstanding findings in cluster analysis showed that Afghanistan, Andorra, and Comoros had the most decreasing trend in urolithiasis rates over time (decreasing rate of -128.2 per 100000, p-value < .001). Cuba, Cyprus, Czechia, the Democratic People's Republic of Korea, Denmark, and Djibouti were in the next rank in terms of decreasing rate (decreasing rate of -92.3 per 100000, p-value < .001). In addition, urolithiasis rates in Congo, Eswatini, Gabon, and Grenada have the most increasing trend (increasing rate of 116.1 per 100000, p-value < .001). Conclusion The trend of urolithiasis rates was significantly increased in most countries, and Congo, Eswatini, Gabon, and Grenada had the highest trend among others. Also, Afghanistan, Andorra, and Comoros revealed the most decreasing rates, and the trend has dropped remarkably in several other countries.

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“…Climatic data for 2050 and 2070 were derived from two atmospheric circulation models (ACMs): Community Climate System Model Version 4 (CCSM4; see Gent et al [69]) and Meteorological Research Institute CGCM Version 3 (MRI-CGCM3; see Yukimoto et al [70]). The CCSM4 is widely used for predicting climate change effects on fauna distribution in Iran, for example, [71][72][73][74]. The MRI-CGCM3 has also been suggested as one of the best models from 37 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) General Circulation Models (GCMs) of regional climate change projections in Iran [75].…”

Section: Environmental Datamentioning

confidence: 99%

Design of Protected Area by Tracking and Excluding the Effects of Climate and Landscape Change: A Case Study Using Neurergus derjugini

Vaissi

2021

Sustainability

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This study aimed to use the applications of Ensemble Species Distribution Modelling (eSDM), Geographical Information Systems (GISs), and Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) for the design of a protected area (PA) for the critically endangered yellow-spotted mountain newt, Neurergus derjugini, by tracking and excluding the effects of climate and landscape changes in western Iran and northeastern Iraq. Potential recent and future distributions (2050 and 2070) were reconstructed by eSDM using eight algorithms with MRI-CGCM3 and CCSM4 models. The GIS-based MCDA siting procedure was followed inside habitats with high eSDM suitability by eliminating the main roads, cities, high village density, dams, poor vegetation, low stream density, agricultural lands and high ridge density. Then, within the remaining relevant areas, 10 polygons were created as “nominations” for PAs (NPAs). Finally, for 10 different NPAs, the suitability score was ranked based on ratings and weights (analytical hierarchy process) of the number of newt localities, NPA connectivity, NPA shape, NPA habitat suitability in 2070, NPA size, genetic diversity, village density and distance to nearest PAs, cities, and main roads. This research could serve as a modern realistic approach for environmental management to plan conservation areas using a cost-effective and affordable technique.

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Modeling the distribution of urolithiasis prevalence under projected climate change in Iran

Cited by 15 publications

References 21 publications

Epidemiology of urolithiasis in Asia

Epidemiology of urolithiasis in Asia

Longitudinal trend of urolithiasis incidence rates among world countries during past decades

Design of Protected Area by Tracking and Excluding the Effects of Climate and Landscape Change: A Case Study Using Neurergus derjugini

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