Modeling the Dynamics of Drug Spreading in China

Tang, Haoxiang; Li, Mingtao; Yan, Xiangyu; Zhang, Lu; Jia, Zhongwei

doi:10.3390/ijerph18010288

Cited by 6 publications

(4 citation statements)

References 63 publications

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“…There were ~11.3 million people who injected drugs worldwide, of which more than one million were infected with HIV and 5.5 million suffered from hepatitis C ( 1 ). There were 2.14 million drug users in China by the end of 2019, accounting for 0.16% of the total population, of which 807,000 (around 37.5%) were heroin users ( 2 , 3 ). A study using a calibrated model based on Monte Carlo simulations estimated those entire drug users increased from 0.86 million to more than 3.12 million from 2000 to 2030 ( 4 ).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Sociodemographic Factors Associated With HIV/HCV High-Risk Behaviors Among People Who Use Drugs on Methadone Maintenance Treatment: A 10-Year Observational Study

Liu

et al. 2021

Front. Psychiatry

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Background: Sociodemographic factors have an impact worldwide on the behavior of people who use drugs (PWUD). This study attempts to clarify the sociodemographic factors related to HIV/HCV high-risk behaviors (injection drug use, syringe sharing, and multiple sex partners) among PWUD on methadone maintenance treatment (MMT) in the long term.Methods: The 13,300 PWUD recruited into the MMT program were followed during 2006–2015. Generalized estimating equations were used to examine the relationship between sociodemographic characteristics and HIV/HCV high-risk behaviors.Results: We found that male (vs. female), living alone (vs. living with family or relatives), temporary income, financial support from family/friends, and financial support from social welfare (vs. regular salary) were positively associated with injection drug use. Age of initial drug use was negatively associated with injection drug use and syringe sharing. For both genders, being unmarried (vs. married or in cohabitation), living with friends, living alone (vs. living with family or relatives), temporary income, financial supports from family/friends (vs. regular salary), being employed (vs. unemployed/between jobs) was positively associated. In contrast, age at baseline was negatively associated with having multiple sexual partners for both genders. Ethnic of non-Han (vs. Han) was positively associated with having multiple sexual partners simply for males. Being divorced or widowed (vs. married or cohabitated) was positively associated with having multiple sexual partners merely for females.Conclusion: HIV/HCV high-risk behaviors correlated with certain sociodemographic factors of PWUD receiving MMT. There is a need for improving the well-being, employment, and housing status of PWUD on MMT to reduce their HIV/HCV risk behaviors.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Sociodemographic Factors Associated With HIV/HCV High-Risk Behaviors Among People Who Use Drugs on Methadone Maintenance Treatment: A 10-Year Observational Study

Liu

et al. 2021

Front. Psychiatry

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“…In an invariant region, the model is proved to be positive and bounded. When studying the dynamical behaviour of an epidemiologically model, this analysis is crucial because it demonstrates whether the model is epidemiologically relevant and mathematically wellposed, that is, whether the model and its predictions are certain [27].…”

Section: Basic Properties Of the Tb Model With Public Health Educatio...mentioning

confidence: 99%

Dynamical Behaviour of a Modified Tuberculosis Model with Impact of Public Health Education and Hospital Treatment

Sulayman

Abdullah

2022

Axioms

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Tuberculosis (TB), caused by Mycobacterium tuberculosis is one of the treacherous infectious diseases of global concern. In this paper, we consider a deterministic model of TB infection with the public health education and hospital treatment impact. The effective reproductive number, Rph, that measures the potential spread of TB is presented by employing the next generation matrix approach. We investigate local and global stability of the TB-free equilibrium point, endemic equilibrium point, and sensitivity analysis. The analyses of the proposed model show that the model undergoes the phenomenon of backward bifurcation when the effective reproduction number (Rph) is less than one, where two stable equilibria, namely, the DFE and an EEP coexist. Further, we compute the sensitivity of the impact of each parameter on the effective reproductive number of the model by employing a normalized sensitivity index formula. Numerical simulation of the proposed model was conducted using Maple 2016 and MatLab R2020b software and compared with the theoretical results for illustration purposes. The investigation results can be useful in providing information to policy makers and public health authorities in mitigating the spread of TB infection by public health education and hospital treatment.

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“…Following the technique in [23,24] (and furthermore the proof in [24]), it is not hard to demonstrate that when all model parameters remain nonnegative, the state variables S ι , E ι , I ι , and R ι are all positive for all time t given they are initially positive.…”

Section: Basic Properties Of the Tb Model With Saturated Recoverymentioning

confidence: 99%

Analysis of a Tuberculosis Infection Model considering the Influence of Saturated Recovery (Treatment)

Sulayman

Abdullah

2021

Complexity

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Tuberculosis (TB) is a serious global health threat that is caused by the bacterium Mycobacterium tuberculosis, is extremely infectious, and has a high mortality rate. In this paper, we developed a model of TB infection to predict the impact of saturated recovery. The existence of equilibrium and its stability has been investigated based on the effective reproduction number R C . The model displays interesting dynamics, including backward bifurcation and Hopf bifurcation, which further results in the stable disease-free and stable endemic equilibria to be coexisting. Bifurcation analysis demonstrates that the saturation parameter is accountable for the phenomenon of backward bifurcation. We derive a condition that guarantees that the model is globally asymptotically stable using the Lyapunov function approach to global stability. The numerical simulation also reveals that the extent of saturation of TB infection is the mechanism that is fuelling TB disease in the population.

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Modeling the Dynamics of Drug Spreading in China

Cited by 6 publications

References 63 publications

Sociodemographic Factors Associated With HIV/HCV High-Risk Behaviors Among People Who Use Drugs on Methadone Maintenance Treatment: A 10-Year Observational Study

Sociodemographic Factors Associated With HIV/HCV High-Risk Behaviors Among People Who Use Drugs on Methadone Maintenance Treatment: A 10-Year Observational Study

Dynamical Behaviour of a Modified Tuberculosis Model with Impact of Public Health Education and Hospital Treatment

Analysis of a Tuberculosis Infection Model considering the Influence of Saturated Recovery (Treatment)

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