Modeling the effect of campaign advertising on US presidential elections when differences across states matter

Gallego, María; Schofield, Norman

doi:10.1016/j.mathsocsci.2016.09.002

Cited by 3 publications

(2 citation statements)

References 35 publications

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“…For instance, a candidate's comparative advantage in media exposure can lead undecided voters to favor him (Gerber et al, 2011;Gallego and Schofield, 2017). We capture this observation by interpreting s i as advertising efforts, where the party with s i > s j is more prominent and, consequently, wins more undecided voters.…”

Section: Symmetric Political Partiesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Preferences, Confusion and Competition

Hefti

Liu

Schmutzler

2022

The Economic Journal

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Existing literature has argued that firms benefit from confusing consumers of homogeneous goods. This paper shows that this insight generally breaks down with differentiated goods and heterogeneous preferences: With polarized taste distributions, firms fully educate consumers. In cases where firms nevertheless confuse consumers, the welfare consequences are worse than for homogeneous goods, as consumers choose dominated options. Similar insights are also obtained for political contests, in which candidates compete for voters with heterogeneous preferences: Parties choose ambiguous platforms only when preferences are ‘indecisive’, featuring a concentration of indifferent voters.

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Section: Symmetric Political Partiesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Preferences, Confusion and Competition

Hefti

Liu

Schmutzler

2022

The Economic Journal

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“…It is well known that voters' choice of candidate may depend on their state of residence (see also Refs. [10,11]) and that candidates carry out their campaign mostly in swing states. To control for differences across states, we create Democratic, Republican, and Swing dummy variables for voters living in Democratic, Republican, and swing states, coded using Politico's June 2016 list of swing states (see Table A Table 3.…”

Section: Descriptive Statisticsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Estimating the Effect of Voters’ Media Awareness on the 2016 US Presidential Election

Dique¹,

Gallego²

2019

Elections - A Global Perspective

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We examine whether voter media awareness of the 2016 US Presidential election campaign influenced the election using a logit model to estimate the probability that a voter with certain characteristics votes for one of the two candidates. Our results indicate that the more active voters were on social media, the more likely they were to vote for Trump, and the more aware they were of the electoral campaign (watching TV, listening to the radio, reading newspapers, etc.) and the more interested they were in the news/politics, the less likely they were to vote for Trump. The impact of these variables was not as important as their sociodemographic characteristics.

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A big data analysis of the adoption of quoting encouragement policy on Twitter during the 2020 U.S. presidential election

Bodaghi,

Zhu

2024

J Comput Soc Sc

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This research holds significance for the fields of social media and communication studies through its comprehensive evaluation of Twitter’s quoting encouragement policy enacted during the 2020 U.S. presidential election. In addressing a notable gap in the literature, this study introduces a framework that assesses both the quantitative and qualitative effects of specific platform-wide policy interventions, an aspect lacking in existing research. Employing a big data approach, the analysis includes 304 million tweets from a randomly sampled cohort of 86,334 users, using a systematic framework to examine pre-, within-, and post-intervals aligned with the policy timeline. Methodologically, SARIMAX models and linear regression are applied to the time series data on tweet types within each interval, offering an examination of temporal trends. Additionally, the study characterizes short-term and long-term adopters of the policy using text and sentiment analyses on quote tweets. Results show a significant retweeting decrease and modest quoting increase during the policy, followed by a swift retweeting resurgence and quoting decline post-policy. Users with fewer connections or higher activity levels adopt quoting more. Emerging quoters prefer shorter, positive quote texts. These findings hold implications for social media policymaking, providing evidence for refining existing policies and shaping effective interventions.

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Modeling the effect of campaign advertising on US presidential elections when differences across states matter

Cited by 3 publications

References 35 publications

Preferences, Confusion and Competition

Preferences, Confusion and Competition

Estimating the Effect of Voters’ Media Awareness on the 2016 US Presidential Election

A big data analysis of the adoption of quoting encouragement policy on Twitter during the 2020 U.S. presidential election

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