Modeling the fertility impact of the proximate determinants: Time for a tune-up

Abstract

BACKGROUNDMany analyses of the determinants of fertility make a distinction between proximate and background determinants. The former include behavioral factors such as the use of contraception or abortion through which the background determinants (e.g., social and economic variables) affect fertility. These relationships were first recognized by Davis and Blake (1956), who defined a large set of "intermediate fertility variables." In the late 1970s Bongaarts (1978) identified a smaller set of proximate determinants and developed a relatively simple model to quantify their fertility effects. OBJECTIVEThis paper fine-tunes the Bongaarts proximate determinants model in light of new evidence, research, and data that have become available over the past three decades. Reproductive behavior has changed substantially and certain original simplifying assumptions have become less accurate over time. In addition, new research allows some features of the model to be improved. METHODSix adjustments to the model are proposed and implemented. The revised model is compared with the original version and with a revision proposed by Stover (1998). RESULTRevised estimates of the indexes of the proximate determinants and total fecundity are provided for the most recent DHS surveys in 36 developing countries. The revised model provides a better fit than do earlier models. CONCLUSIONThe proximate determinants model, as originally conceived, remains conceptually sound. However, theoretical and empirical evidence accumulated over the past three decades suggests a number of ways to fine-tune the model to make it more robust and accurate in contemporary populations. The resulting revised model provides an

Exploring the fertility trend in Egypt

“…NGOs have become marginalized because of lack of funding (Abdel-Tawab, Oraby, and Bellows 2016). In order to identify the mechanisms through which the factors that are discussed in Section 4 may affect fertility, we implemented a proximate determinants analysis as conceived by Bongaarts (1978) and updated recently (Bongaarts 2015) to identify particularly the role of marriage and contraception prevalence, together with the other determinants (abortion, postpartum infecundability, and sterility), in fertility dynamics.…”

“…For each EDHS, we follow Bongaarts (2015) to calculate four indices of the proximate determinants of fertility: …”

“…Since the calculations according to Bongaarts (2015) lead to heaping in the total fecundity rate, we chose to fix it around the value of 15.3 as proposed by Johnson et al (2011), and use the following equation:…”

The effect of contraception on fertility: Is sub-Saharan Africa different?

“…Fertility is not affected by the use of contraception among women who are not at risk of pregnancy because they are amenorrheic or are abstaining following a pregnancy (Adamchak and Mbizvo 1990;Stover 1998;Thapa et al 1992;Bongaarts 2015). This overlap is therefore excluded in the adjusted prevalence estimates.…”

“…The effect of the CPR on the TFR depends on the effectiveness of the contraceptive methods used. Following Bongaarts (2015), the adjusted CPR is calculated as the weighted average of methods' specific prevalence, with the weights given by the level of effectiveness of each method.…”