Modeling the Impact of Future Climate Change Impacts on Rainfed Durum Wheat Production in Algeria

Abstract

The predicted climate change threatens food security in the coming years in Algeria. So, this study aims to assess the impact of future climate change on a key crop in Algeria which is rainfed durum wheat. We investigate the impact of climate change on rainfed durum wheat cultivar called Mexicali using AquaCrop crop model and the EURO-CORDEX climate projections downscaled with the ICHEC_KNMI model under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5. A delta method was applied to correct the incertitudes present in the raw climate projections of two experimental sites located in Sétif and Bordj Bou Arreridj (BBA)’s Eastern High plains of Algeria (EHPs). AquaCrop was validated with a good precision (RMSE = 0.41 tha−1) to simulate Mexicali cultivar yields. In 2035–2064, it is expected at both sites: an average wheat grain yield enhances of +49% and +105% under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5, respectively, compared to the average yield of the baseline period (1981–2010), estimated at 29 qha−1. In both sites, in 2035–2064, under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5, the CO2 concentrations elevation has a fertilizing effect on rainfed wheat yield. This effect compensates for the negative impacts induced by the temperatures increase and decline in precipitation and net solar radiation. An increase in wheat water productivity is predicted under both RCPs scenarios. That is due to the water loss drop induced by the shortening of the wheat-growing cycle length by the effect of temperatures increase. In 2035–2064, early sowing in mid-September and October will lead to wheat yields improvement, as it will allow the wheat plant to benefit from the precipitations increase through the fall season. Thus, this early sowing will ensure a well vegetative development and will allow the wheat’s flowering and grain filling before the spring warming period.

Investigating the Potassium Fertilization Effect on Morphological and Agrophysiological Indicators of Durum Wheat under Mediterranean Rain-Fed Conditions

“…Among these factors, drought stress is a very important abiotic stress that constricts wheat production [6,7]. According to a report published by the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA), the water deficit has caused a decline in wheat production, which has led to imports of about 8 million tons for the year 2021 [8]. Wherefore, rain-fed cropping systems should be considered as one of the major ways for increasing and stabilizing cereals production, especially in sub-humid Algerian areas [9].…”

Efficiency of index-based selection for potential yield in durum wheat [<em>Triticum turgidum</em> (L.) ssp. <em>turgidum convar. durum</em> (Desf.) Mackey] lines

“…This crop species is widely cultivated in a rainfed agricultural system in the northern national territory from the Tunisian frontier in the East to Morocco in the West. Globally, it is grown over 1.49 million hectares with a total production of 2.57 million tons in 2019-2020 and an average yield during the 2000-2020 period of 1.70 t ha -1 (MADRP-DSASI, 2020; Kourat et al, 2022;Martínez-Moreno et al, 2022). Algerian production fails to meet the needs of the country, estimated at 8.5 million tons…”

Enhancing soil resilience and crop physiology with biochar application for mitigating drought stress in durum wheat (Triticum durum)

“…Sustaining soil quality and nutritional status in arid and semi-arid regions presents a major challenge for many developing countries [ 1 ]. These regions grapple with infertile and nutrient-poor soils, posing a significant obstacle to crop development, particularly cereal production, the predominant crop in these areas [ 2 ]. Soil fertility loss primarily stems from the excessive exploitation of agricultural land, exacerbating issues related to soil degradation and land desertification [ 3 ].…”