Modeling the impact of mitigation policies in a pandemic: A system dynamics approach

Sharif, Shahab Valaei; Moshfegh, Peyman Habibi; Morshedi, Mohamad Ali; Kashani, Hamed

doi:10.1016/j.ijdrr.2022.103327

Cited by 7 publications

(3 citation statements)

References 58 publications

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“…Similar approaches have been taken by Olaya [72], Kubanza et al [73], Macmillan et al [74], Luna-Yeyes and Anderson [75], Guest et al [76], Saryazdi et al [77], and Shoar and Payan [78]. We select these methods as suitable for this study among the broad range of qualitative systems dynamics modeling methods that can be used to reason about systems and explore hypotheses, including Boolean networks [79], cross-impact balances [80], simulation modeling [81][82][83], agent-based modeling [84,85], and analytical optimization [86]. We use the results from our semi-structured interviews as evidence (Section 4.4) to identify actors and their roles, understand the flows of information, and identify causal feedbacks and sources of path-dependence in our case-study system.…”

Section: Systems Analysismentioning

confidence: 99%

Why Did the “Missing Middle” Miss the Train? An Actors-In-Systems Exploration of Barriers to Intensified Family Housing in Waterloo Region, Canada

Parker

Sharif

Webber

2023

Land

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(1) Background: Missing Middle (MM) housing may be critical to address decreasing housing affordability and to achieve critical density in transit-oriented neighborhoods; however, its production is in decline. We report on a case study of housing development around a new light-rail transit line in the Region of Waterloo, Canada, investigating the puzzle of how a residential building boom coincided with decreasing housing affordability. (2) Methods: Following participatory co-creation and communication of background research characterizing housing demand with stakeholder partners, we created a data narrative arguing that MM housing was desired by residents and profitable for developers and then used it to guide semi-structured interviews with planners and real estate industry stakeholders. Based on these interviews, we developed a qualitative system map and causal loop diagrams that demonstrate interactions between key actors (residents, brokers, planners, developers, and investors) as mediated by boundedly rational real estate demand expectations. (3) Results: Our interviews identify multi-faceted barriers, beyond demand perception, to MM housing development. Systems analysis illustrates how high-density, small-unit high-rise development can become locked in, concurrently locking out MM housing. (4) Conclusions: Our research identifies barriers to MM housing supply by articulating the systemic feedbacks between the planning and land/housing market realms and reveals key leverage points, empowering planners to develop policies that catalyze hoped-for housing market supply responses to increase housing affordability. Based on these findings, we suggest targeted interventions: multi-unit base residential zoning, MM site plan typologies, non-profit and co-op financing, unit-mix requirements, pre-build MM condo purchase by municipalities or non-profits, and MM demonstration projects.

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Section: Systems Analysismentioning

confidence: 99%

Why Did the “Missing Middle” Miss the Train? An Actors-In-Systems Exploration of Barriers to Intensified Family Housing in Waterloo Region, Canada

Parker

Sharif

Webber

2023

Land

Self Cite

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“…SD theory is also frequently applied in healthcare. For example, Sharif et al 56 used an SD model to analyze changes in the performance of different types of nonpharmacological interventions in the healthcare system. Farid et al 41 used an SD model to quantify the effects of nursing workload on nurse burnout, absenteeism, and quality of patient care.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Effects of workload on medication administration errors in nursing: an analysis based on system dynamics modeling

et al. 2023

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Medication administration errors account for a relatively high proportion of medical errors, with more than 50% occurring at the nursing administration stage. Nursing is characterized by a large amount of work, rigid working hours, high information cognitive intensity, and frequent information updates. The high workload of nurses is a significant cause of medication administration errors. In this study, a literature analysis was used to determine the elements of the system dynamics model, and the causal loop diagram was used to draw the relationship framework among the elements. Vensim personal learning edition and interview surveys were then used for model validation and simulation. First, 302 case analyses of medication administration errors collected from the three metropolitan area hospitals were used to construct the causal loop diagram, the stock and flow map of the medication administration error system, and the dynamics model; second, the model was tested from theoretical and historical data simulation perspectives; finally, the system dynamics model proposed in this study was used to simulate a medical institution from overtime and policy perspectives. Through system dynamics modeling, the inducing mechanism of workload on medication administration errors in nursing operations was elucidated, and corresponding suggestions for prevention were provided. In addition, ideas and basis for optimizing the medication administration process, improving workload, and preventing medication administration errors considering workload were provided.

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“…To examine the model behaviour under the uncertainty associated with unit sales prices and interest rates, we performed joint numerical sensitivity analysis with these model parameters. The sensitivity analysis evaluates whether the model outcomes (e.g., the IRR estimated for the project) vary significantly when the model assumptions (e.g., unit sales prices and loan interest rates) are varied over their plausible range of uncertainty (Kashani et al 2022;Sterman 2000;Valaei Sharif et al 2022). The results of the joint numerical sensitivity analysis of the IRR with respect to unit sales price, π, and interest rate, i, are presented in Figure A4, given that other model parameters remain constant during the project timeline.…”

Section: Appendix C Joint Impact Of Shifts In Sales Price and Interes...mentioning

confidence: 99%

Understanding the Effects of Market Volatility on Profitability Perceptions of Housing Market Developers

Valaei Sharif,

Parker,

Waddell

et al. 2023

JRFM

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Drastic shifts in prices and housing market trends in recent years, representing shocks to the housing system, have led many residential developers to pause or cancel their projects. In the already heated housing markets of the Greater Toronto Area (GTA), these supply frictions can have ramifications for affordability. Our study formulates a standardized “proforma” model of the profitability of a hypothetical condominium project in the city of Toronto, Canada, scheduled between 2019 to 2023, to explore the combined effect of developers’ price expectations and market volatility on developers’ decisions. Using the proposed proforma, we first identify the key drivers of development decisions. We then evaluate the impact of the expectation formation of key factors influencing perceived development profitability, including construction costs, sales prices, and interest rates, on the financial feasibility of potential developments. The results highlight that boundedly rational expectations can cause variations in profitability perceptions and potentially reverse development decisions in volatile market conditions. Our results highlight the sources of risk and uncertainty in development decisions, facilitating the recognition of possible solutions to mitigate these risks and increase affordable housing supplies. The proposed model can also enhance the realism of decision models in agent-based representations of land and housing markets.

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Modeling the impact of mitigation policies in a pandemic: A system dynamics approach

Cited by 7 publications

References 58 publications

Why Did the “Missing Middle” Miss the Train? An Actors-In-Systems Exploration of Barriers to Intensified Family Housing in Waterloo Region, Canada

Why Did the “Missing Middle” Miss the Train? An Actors-In-Systems Exploration of Barriers to Intensified Family Housing in Waterloo Region, Canada

Effects of workload on medication administration errors in nursing: an analysis based on system dynamics modeling

Understanding the Effects of Market Volatility on Profitability Perceptions of Housing Market Developers

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